Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD - 25 November 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before the cheers, big thanks, thumbs up to Eightka Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with Eightka Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, all the trading systems and our indicators, please refer to the link below this video in the description. A quick fundamental overview of the coming week. It's going to be a busy one, so pay attention. And in advance, to all the American viewers we have here, uh, Happy Thanksgiving. Uh, so what do we have, uh, this week, uh, besides Black Friday and, um, Thanksgiving, of course? Consumer confidence in the US CPI in Australia, which is expected to go higher than the last time, 2.5 versus what, 2.1? That's definitely numbers that can affect on the all the Aussie pairs. I would pay attention to this one, could be very significant. And of course the New Zealand cash rate Tuesday, 8 PM New York time. Then we have the statement. The expectations with the market, half percent cut. Anything left or right of these numbers, uh, would, would have very likely significant impact on the Australian pairs. Pay attention to this one, there could be great opportunities there. New Zealand dollar will be one of the pairs we would cover today, so we would see how that goes. Uh, then we have the GDP in the US, of course, with unemployment claims Thursday news. PCE, the core PCE price index in the US, also coming on this Wednesday. Thursday before Wednesday. Of course, significant read the numbers to understand how much room does the Fed have for the coming rate cuts. There are voices from the Federal Reserve members already saying not to rush to cut dramatically, not to harm all their efforts. I don't think they have much room to cut. And we have the FOMC meeting minutes also on Wednesday. Then we have Thursday. The US market is off, so volatility will be likely lower during the US session. We have the CPI, the German producer CPI in the eurozone And then on Friday, GDP in Canada and manufacturing PMI in China. So again, significant week ahead of us. Now let's talk the charts. So the first one for today, the euro-dollar. A quick follow-up on what we discussed the last week or weeks. What we wanted to see was correction to this zone where we can— where is that? Uh, here, the levels where we can. And of course, as long as our dynamic resistance line is holding, we wanted to get the price back there, uh, closer to the moving average, um, meeting point or zone between the 2 moving averages. And from there further continuation down. And you know what? Let's take a look on the charts so you understand. Not on the charts, sorry, the numbers. So you can understand how significant the current bearish momentum is and why I do expect the corrections to build up soon. I will explain and then continue lower. So take a look on the numbers on the euro dollar. The one month over 3.5%. Huge negative zone. The seven days close to two percent. The last twenty-four hours more than half percent. Very negative market. And with that being said, the further we go out of a normal price change, the stronger the pressure will be for the market to balance itself, which brings the probability and possibility of a coming correction. So here is what we need to understand from the euro dollar. First of all. I do not think the bearish market is over. I think every pullback there when will take place should offer further move down. There is a great probability the price will go below the parity level and very likely levels like 0.95 or even beyond that. With that being said, on the shorter term, I do believe we will see the euro-dollar building up some slowdown conditions very soon. And here is why. First of all, if we plot Fibonacci extension here, I want to understand technically where we are. We are below the 100, very close to the 161.8 extension. If the market continues there, which is very likely would be the case, we will see the conditions here Being oversold, extremely oversold. Remember this zone because if I plot now on the Bollinger Band the duplication level from the recent breakout, we will see that the second duplication is also around this zone. You can get the copy of the Bollinger Band and use this absolutely powerful indicator. With the link below this video in the description, and that's the zone where I believe the euro dollar will start to create some short-term slowdown. And the way I expected to move or behave on the four-hour chart as we see the market attempt to start to create some divergence here, I believe the market will start to make some attempts here, some slowdown, get us. To the zone we saw complete this divergence, recent build, there is a divergence on the RSI, go and I would say flirt with the dynamic supportive line here, right? Something like that. And then start its corrective movement. So new lows To be created on the euro-dollar, I believe should create some. I would mark this zone and to create some corrective movement as soon as these divergence take place. After that, very likely we will see the bears take further control and push the prices lower. What's your thought of of this pair? How low do you think we go from here? Let me know in the comments. Next one, the pound-dollar, another pair from last week discussion. I want quickly to follow up. What we wanted to see is rallies and bearish hidden divergence where we see lower highs on the chart and higher highs on the indicator, MACD in that case, and from there to see the price push lower. So as you can see, the pound-dollar delivers as well, and the question is down to where. Before the charts, take a look on the numbers. Again, Market Strength Snapshot, one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. And I want to invite you, if I still didn't of course, to join our family, to enjoy all the amazing courses we have here, enjoy all the amazing real-time education and trading opportunities. Access to our community and so much many, so many more features. So take a look on the link below this video in the description. Also enjoy the offers we have with Eightcap Broker again in the description below this video. So pound dollar similar to what we saw on the euro dollar, more than three percent negative on the monthly chart, seven days over one point five percent, twenty four hours half very similar to the euro actually and. With this idea in mind, I want to remind you we discussed about it a long time ago for those of you who follow us here, but this bearish divergence that was completed on the weekly chart right next to the huge supply zone on the weekly chart usually hints that we should be exposed to corrective structure, which could be either ABCD or some prolonged range. And that is the case with the pound-dollar. I don't think it's over. I think after any given rally here, we should be looking for further move down, and then somewhere in 2025, most likely, uh, we will see the pound-dollar continuing its rally, uh, to the upside. So with this logic and idea in mind, let's take a look where do we stand right now on the pound-dollar. Plotting Fibonacci extension on the currently developing waves Show us that the first zone, the first key zone is here, the 100% Fibonacci extension. But there are no reversal signs, so very likely the next step is the 161.8 extension, which brings us to this huge demand zone from the weekly chart. So there are a couple of important levels we have here. We have this demand zone from the daily chart. We have this, the 100% Fibonacci. That's the first place where I believe we will see pullbacks, very likely to this volume profile zone, and from there further continuation down. On the Bollinger Bands, after the breakout, again, we will see how beautifully the Bollinger Band duplication fits together with the demand levels we discussed before. You can again get your copy of the Bollinger Bands MT4, MT5 below this video in the description. Now with this logic in mind, here we are around key levels as we saw before, similar to what we saw on the EUR/USD at the ending waves, building up a divergence condition. It's yet to build, it's yet to form, but it's building up. I do expect to see here The conditions for the reversal. We saw this zone, the daily demand, the Bollinger Band application. We will very likely see some slowdown conditions here. Indicators around, price starts to round, and then a corrective movement building up before the next big sell will be built. So new lows are very likely slowly take or make some fake signs, fake lows, potential reversal signs. And I believe on the course of coming weeks, we should see this bearish control slowing down, reversal building up. But patience, don't try to call the bottom before you actually got a bottom and the price reacted accordingly. It did not happen yet, don't rush. To make sure it does. So that's my view of the pound dollar. What is yours? Share with us in the comments. Let's move on. The next one, New Zealand dollar. We discussed about this one a couple of weeks ago or so, I think, and we marked this level as the level we are going down to eventually after any little pullbacks which we experience here. And here we are. Voilà. I mentioned before, this week we have rates decision in New Zealand. This drive down is according to the expectation that New Zealand Central Bank will cut the rates by half percent, 50 basis points. Any well, very likely they will. Yeah, but in case if they don't, then New Zealand could react dramatically with massive rally, and that could happen also if they say now we cut. That's it. Okay, any hawkish, um, speech in that case could cause the New Zealand dollar to start its rally. Now let's break it down for the longer term. I do not think we saw the bottom. I think after any pullback, like the other pairs, we should see that going further down. So from my point of view, there is no yet trend change. Right on the longer term, but on the shorter term we are around key levels. What are these key levels? We have a demand zone here, massive area, and if we plot Fibonacci extension on the developing waves, we will figure out that we have 61.8 Fibonacci right there. Okay, very, very strong zone. We already see the histogram starts to slowly build up some divergence here, which makes me believe that we will see here also other indicators eventually building up and correction taking place. So we also have, as you can see here, more than 20 candles right on the lower Bollinger Band. It did not create significant call. It continues lower, which makes me think we're gonna see the next Duplication zone, which is close to, as you can see, the levels we discussed being reached. And that is very close to the scenario we had here. As you can see, we where we saw the bottom and then big reversal took place. So similar to the euro, similar to the pound, as we saw, I believe. New Zealand dollar is running off its steam after the news that we will get this week, and with this dynamic supportive line, I believe New Zealand dollar should complete the bottom here, start to build up some reversal signs, and eventually make this corrective movement back to this key zone. closer to 0.60 very likely before further sell, um, very likely to take place. In terms of numbers, New Zealand dollar, uh, is very close— where is it here— to what we saw on the euro dollar. Almost 3.5% on the monthly, 1.5% on the 7 days, and 0.5% during the last day. Again, Again, the numbers speak for themselves. The bears are here, but losing momentum as we see, and very, very, very likely we will see that building a bottom soon. Okay, at least a short-term one. Don't rush to call a bottom. Wait for the reversal signs as we just discussed, then be ready to act. And the final one, gold, and a follow-up on our last week discussion with We marked this zone and that's where we said from this area we can expect the gold to rally very likely back to the supply zone. So here we are with the gold right now. We are around huge zone. First of all, first supply, then broken support becomes resistance, and the next supply zone. All this area is very, very powerful. We are very close to some overbought conditions. Histogram starts to slow down. There are a couple of scenarios I see here on the gold. Scenario 1, which is very, very likely to happen, we will build up some peak here, some top, some divergence will take place and complete, and we're gonna experience some corrective movement on the gold. Scenario 2 that this is just a little pullback coming, if it comes of course, right, before the gold actually rallies to complete the final rally towards another peak and then very likely to complete the weekly divergence which is still missing for the longer-term bearish party. These are the two scenarios that I see on the gold short-term bounces, which very likely should take place from this zone once the divergence takes place. But after that, and I would mark these levels as key levels, we have dynamic supportive line, we have strong demand zone here, and we have a strong inner zone here. As you can see, money zone, right? And of course, this supportive line too, supportive zone too. Any pullbacks towards this area should bring further rallies. Very likely for the gold to go and complete the weekly divergence. I don't think more than that is coming because of all the extreme divergences we are facing already. There is, of course, a possibility that the gold massively holds this area, rebuild the momentum here, make some pullback, and continues down. It doesn't look like that at the moment, but that could develop this way. Uh, so that's another scenario we should be following with the gold. Let me know how do you see this one in the comments. That's it for this video. I hope you find value in it, and if you did, please don't forget to like the video with the like button below this video. Also, if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I want to invite you to Home Trader Club, our trading family, to enjoy the full courses, real-time education, and real-time trading opportunities. Our link to join is below this video in the description. Thanks for your time watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more trading opportunities and more trading education. Good trading, good weekend, good week ahead. Bye for now.