In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of the Home Trader Club provides a technical analysis of three major instruments—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and WTI crude oil—recorded on a Friday before market close. He begins with a sponsor acknowledgment for 8K Broker and outlines the video’s purpose: to present actionable scenarios ahead of the upcoming U.S. non‑farm payrolls. For EUR/USD, Ribakov describes a recent drop into a key balance zone confirmed by volume profile and a 250‑period moving average, then outlines two possible paths: a breakout from the current range leading to a rally toward the weekly falling trend line (potentially limited by bearish divergence), or a continuation of lower highs/lows forming an ABCD correction that could push the pair lower. He emphasizes the need to be prepared for both outcomes before the payroll data. For GBP/USD, he revisits a supply zone identified on daily and 4‑hour charts, noting a similar ranging structure to EUR/USD. He presents two scenarios: a short‑term range or ABCD correction followed by a breakout in the direction of the weekly and daily falling trend lines, and a longer‑term bullish outlook where a breakout could drive the pair toward previous highs above 1.40. He recommends buying dips if the range or ABCD completes. For WTI oil, Ribakov admits no long‑term view but leans bearish in the short term, citing an expanding pattern/inverted triangle on the 4‑hour chart, a retest of a weekly mini‑range, and strong demand zones that suggest further downside. He plans to “sell the rallies.” Throughout, he encourages viewer interaction (likes, comments, subscriptions) and promotes the Home Trader Club’s educational services. The analysis remains consistent across instruments, focusing on technical price structures, volume‑based zones, and the upcoming payroll catalyst.
Chapters
Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting us in this community and this channel. To enjoy all the offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, The trading systems, the indicators, private mentoring sessions, and more. Take a look on the link below this video in the description. In today's video, euro dollar, pound dollar, and oil. Before we will start, please note that I record this video. It's Friday today, slightly before the markets are closed. And due to personal reasons, I would not be able to do it later when the markets. Are closed. So the price you see on my chart here might slightly vary from the close price. So please pay attention to that. However, the analysis remains absolutely the same. So the euro dollar will be the first one. Last week we were talking about the one of the scenarios that the euro dollar is going to. Make a drop down to this very zone and provide us beautiful further rallies. So as you can see during the week, that's exactly what we got: the euro dropping down to this zone and delivering these very bounds we were looking for. The question is what is happening from here, and here are the two scenarios. I see on the euro dollar following the analysis we've had in the previous week. So I want quickly to remind you, the way I see that is that we currently are moving in a range, and the, uh, the classical scenario here would be eventually breakout before the continuation. Okay, however, it's important, the possibility that it will go to the second leg down eventually, like ABCD, before any further rally is still there, especially if we take a look on the volume profile as a factor, that in this strong balance zone based on the volume profile and the dynamic moving average, uh, 250, they are both holding the key zone. And as long as that's the case, we can see the euro dropping down. Now why do I show that? Because if we start to scroll down to the lower time frames, on a daily chart, the recent supply zone we have from the euro dollar here in the bigger scale and the small one here is holding and holding stiff. No, no doubts about that. The falling trend line From the weekly chart, right, is also still there with its bearish shadow. So there are two ways that the euro is going to follow from here. One, as we will see in a moment on the four-hour chart, will manage to make the breakout of this little range complete the final rally at least at least towards the falling. Trend line from the weekly chart, and then we will see what's coming next because there is a great chance it will be blocked by bearish divergence— higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator. In that case, we can expect a sell. Okay, and let's go to the 4-hour chart so you can see how it all develops. While the euro did this bounce during the week from the zone we wanted to see, The current scenario is that it's still holding the range, and we do have here sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Okay, so the— I— for the bullish scenario, rally beyond that, retest or inside the range, and then final rally towards the weekly trend line is a classical setup here. However, And this is a big however. Remember the ABCD we saw before from the weekly chart as a possible scenario? If it manages to actually maintain these lower highs, lower lows, right, we could see the euro-dollar breaking below the rising supportive line and then making this dive to the downside. So the way it behaves right now, especially before the non-farm payrolls, it's classical, right? This is a non-farm payroll week coming this week, and the euro is taking us exactly to that place where it is in between levels, and both buys and sells could be easily technically proven and justified. So we as traders have to be prepared for both. This little expanding range, if it happens to Um, to break or even to hold, right? To hold like this inside, uh, that we actually could be looking for the buys towards the weekly falling trend line. And alternatively, if we complete the break— and very important thing with the break— if it becomes a structure of lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator, that opens the door for some significant potential sell like it did here. Lower lows on the chart, but also lower lows on the indicator. And that's why we see that the buyers, even though they are trying to take the control, they are still failing to do so. Okay, so, uh, this is pretty much where the euro-dollar stands for now, a week before the non-farm payrolls. And that's the 2 scenarios I will be looking at in order to trade my euros. What would be your plan on this one? Let me know in the comment section below this video. Next one is the pound-dollar, but before that, if you find value in this video, if you appreciate trading opportunities and the analysis, please hit this like button. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe. Also feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that and learn something interesting and new. And thank you very much in advance for taking the time to help and to support me. So the last week we were talking about the pound dollar and we described this key zone. As you can see here, I'm drawing with these lines. It's a virtual trading pen indicator I use. You can find all the information in the comment section below this video. It helps me when I need to move from time frame to time frame, have my lines there, and different colors, different sizes help me a lot to control the way it, uh, it works for the analysis. So the last week we were talking about making the supply zone from the, um, daily chart, which we saw, which we just saw, and then on the 4-hour chart with the completion of the divergence higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator, we could expect the move down. The instant target zone is of course the previous demand area, and the biggest question is what happens with the pound right now. So for that, I want to go back to the— what are these lines? Uh, back to the weekly where it all starts from for me. And to remind you that we have here a ranging structure similar to what we saw on the euro-dollar, while this one has all the reasons eventually to break and to fly all the way, let's say, to the previous high. Okay, but also potentially all the way to the key monthly and weekly high above 140 for the long run. But on the short run, similar to the euro dollar. There is a good chance we will see this one flirting around this area a little bit before the actual breakout happens. And if we drop to the daily chart, you can see the price is not giving much. And what do I mean by that? While holding these weekly lines, the daily is holding its supply. No breakouts, no significant divergences. Nothing that will contradict or verify the breakout yet. And as I said before on the EUR/USD, this week is going to be the non-farm payroll week and the market is building up the way it usually does, right, to the place where both buys and sells could be justified, proven easily on a technical side. So I believe that at least until the non-farm payrolls, unless there will be some sort of a leak, the pound-dollar, as long as it did not break the range, has a very good probability to go here for deeper ABCD correction, 2 waves correction, or continue to move within this range again before non-farm payroll. And then make the breakout one of the directions. This scenario of a range or ABCD could be classical, and the reason for that is because think about it this way: this is the falling trend line from the weekly and the daily chart. So imagine it does something like that, range or ABCD, and then comes the breakout. This would be the 2 timeframes trendline breakout, one of the most classical, uh, signs, technical signs for trend continuations. And you can watch this video on the right top corner right now, um, that is a dedicated video I published and shared how to deal with such situations. So that's, uh, the 2 scenarios with the pound-dollar regardless of the short-term pullbacks, which are very welcome to the bearish direction and very possible. Uh, I am after buys for the long term. So if it completes the ABCD or the range, for me that's buy the dips. Okay, I think the pound-dollar is one of the more attractive opportunities instruments that we can see at the market at the moment. And I think that once this corrective movement, uh, will end up as ABCD or range, the GBP/USD should be ready for the buys and take us to the desired high. What would you expect from the GBP/USD from here? Uh, drop down to complete the ABCD or the range breakout or anything else? Uh, share your, uh, view in the comment section below this video. The final one for today would be the oil. Reason is because I got a lot of requests, requests to analyze the oil. So I'll share my analysis, but before that, I want to say I don't really have any classical specific view on the longer term. As for now, I would not be surprised If oil is going to retest this weekly mini range that we see at the moment after these three waves, I would also not be surprised if it takes a rally from here. But for me, I would be more bearish than bullish at the moment personally. And to explain my view on the bearish side. If we go to the daily chart, at the end of this daily range, once we got the breakout, we got the retest. This zone was retested nicely. And the beautiful part here is if we go to the 4-hour chart, you would see that this is an expanding pattern here, structure, or inverted triangle, some might like to call that, which means a very, very great chance we are going to see that Going to retest these lows. We also have the demand levels here, which means there is a great, great, great probability that oil is going to retest this zone. And if we drop to the four-hour chart, so here we will see some beautiful lines if we connect that, right? Which opens up the possibility for further continuation down. There are currently no signs against it. We did have bullish divergence here. We did have the bounces. Now this supply area and the resistance are holding, and the price bounces backward, right? So this falling trend line is holding. It simply looks logical and technically correct. And I believe that after we experience some pullbacks here, the oil should actually continue lower at least. To retest this falling trend line, something like that, right? And/or remember the weekly chart, we do have this rising trend line. There is a very good probability we are going to retest it at the end of the, of the move. So for me, on the short term, I am after Sell the rallies due to the price analysis. I don't see any specific cycle. I don't see any divergence synchronization in play, but the price and the way it looks right now, to me, it looks more bearish than bullish. That therefore sell the rallies is my plan. What would be yours? How do you see the oil moving from here? Share with us in the comment section below this video. So that's all for today. Thank you very much for watching and for your time. Please don't forget to hit the like button if you do find value in this video. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you can get your access to our real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, comprehensive complete trading courses, comprehensive media zone, and way so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks once again for your time. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading and good week ahead.
