Forex Weekly Forecast | EURUSD, GBPUSD, S&P500 & Bitcoin (6 October 2025) - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forecast. We have very interesting opportunities building up for the coming week, but before the charts, as always, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community. And you can continue and enjoy all the special offers we have, including the access to Home Trader Club, all the trading strategies, systems Tools, private mentoring sessions—you name it. So make sure you check the link below in the description. Euro dollar, our first one to follow, and from let's follow up with the idea we discussed in the last week where we got the trend line breakout and the zigzag. And we expected it to get the correction to these levels and from there continuation down. So let's examine the situation we have right now on the chart and explain both scenarios we have on the euro, both the bearish and the bullish. But before that, the US government shutdown, and if there will be no fast, quick— I wouldn't say instant, but quick enough solution, then the market could get into some chaos phase. That's something to pay attention to. The non-farm payrolls data that was supposed to be released this Friday actually was postponed, and it's tentative right now. There is no exact data for that, and the Fed don't know what is going on with the job market. However, the ADP that was published on Wednesday gave some light on what is expected from the non-farm payroll and showed very negative numbers, which means that pressure on the job market starts to be for real, the real deal. And that, as it looks by the market or is expected by the market, does not give too much Freedom to the Fed to actually postpone the rate cuts further on. So with that being said, let's take a look on the charts. Weekly chart on the euro dollar. We are overriding on the Bollinger Band, but without a completed cycle yet. So eventually the euro should complete this lag and complete its cycle with a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD before the trend change will come later on. So the question is: Will that happen? Here right now, or will we see first of all deeper push— very possible scenario— before the continuation? So if we break that down and we go to the daily chart, on a daily chart at the end of the 3 waves we had here, we never yet experienced a corrective structure. That's one of the reasons why this is still a very possible scenario. To see the euro dropping below 114, maybe even below 112. For that to happen, and I give this about 60-70% of probability here, so I am more bearish than bullish at the moment, uh, we got the zigzag. So here is what happened with the euro on the lower time frame. The trend line was broken down, we start to see lower lows on the chart, and that means this key high And this key high of the high of the uptrend and the high of the downtrend now act as supply levels. So if they manage to hold, I believe the euro, if it completes ABCD correction or a range and break it down, should open the doors for next wave to the downside. But there is an alternative scenario, as I said before, because the higher timeframe is not completed cycle. What could happen here is that if the EURUSD managed to actually hold the supportive levels and starts to rebuild its bullish structure by making sequence of higher highs, higher lows, places itself above the volume profile balance zone, that could be taken as a bullish signal. And in that case, we can expect the EURUSD pushing further on within this channel and climb finally to above the 1.20. So again, I give about 60-70% to the bearish one, the bearish scenario, a bit more weight at the moment simply due to the waving structure it currently has. For me, the ideal scenario would be this before the rallies actually take place. But again, the market doesn't care what I want, what you want, what anyone wants. The market will do what the market has to do, and we as traders, we don't need to guess what the market will do. We need to react to the way the price acts. Next one is our GBP/USD, but before that, I want to remind you guys that here on the right top corner, you can find our day trading opportunities playlist. That's the trading opportunities I publish during the week. If you don't know what I'm talking about, make sure you watch this playlist I just mentioned. And of course, you can find everything in the channel. And if you are new to our channel, make sure you subscribe with the subscribe button below this video so you know to follow when it is there for you. Last week on the GBP/USD, we discussed about the scenario that we expect to see the push down after the retraces. Where from? We have this key supply zone and this key supply zone that as long as they hold, we do expect to see the move to the downside. So similar to the euro, I don't think the rally is over for the longer run. I still believe that this is due. The only question is either from here or from a scenario like that, which is more likely technically speaking. However, again, at the moment there are no, no completed cycle on the weekly chart, so the bullish pressure is still on. So here is what important to pay attention on the GBP/USD that currently is Absolutely fifty-fifty prepares the ground for what's coming next. We did have the three waves up. We did have the ending conditions with the bearish divergence, and unlike the euro, the pound already moves within a range. That's an acceptable way of a correction after the completed cycle. So there is a probability that the pound dollar will. Break above that zone, and from there rallies to above the 140 to complete the weekly cycle. So let's break down both scenarios we want to follow because the ideal scenario here would still be a completion of this ABCD cycle before the next rally actually takes place. So let's break it down similar to the euro dollar. I give it about 60%. To the bearish direction, we had a trend line breaking broken here, a retest, two waves down, and at the moment for the bearish scenario, here is what I want to see: ABCD with a bearish divergence, higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the MACD, and then break below the rising trend line and the recent low. If that happens to be this way, that's a great. Bearish sign for further continuation down. Alternative scenario here is similar to the euro. If the pound managed to regain the bullish momentum, places itself above the supply zone and ideally above the broken daily range, right, then we can discuss about buy the dips towards the 1.40, maybe even beyond that. to connect back to the weekly cycle. At the moment, the GBP/USD is an absolutely 50/50, and you can see also how it is right inside the balanced zone based on the volume profile, and it is flirting on the moving average cross between the 50 and the 200. So, um, 2 scenarios which I plan to follow for the bearish breakout or If the buyers restructure its cycle by making 3 higher highs, higher lows, buy the dips will then become the trading plan for me. S&P 500 climbing endlessly like majority of the indices, especially the US ones. However, I believe the current slowdown and the rounding condition we started to see Hint that a correction is possible, especially with the pressure of the government shutdown we have in the U.S. There is a long bearish divergence developing on the moving average of the MACD, which means correction is very possible. What I want to see to trigger the correction? Two scenarios for that. Scenario one, the ideal one would be if we start to see some false breakout here. And then we have a daily divergence and the 4-hour chart divergence. For that, connect the recent trend line and break below the recent low should open the doors for a sell going back to the next key lows we have on the index. Alternatively, if that peak already is formed break below the daily current low and making lower lows on the histogram and lower lows on the chart alongside a break below the rising trend line should open the door again for the further move down and the retest of the next key lows. The next key levels on the way should be about 63.50, then about 62.00 And potentially to retest the weekly broken support resistance that now acts as support around the 6100. But again, very important to mention here: don't try to guess when it's gonna happen. Wait for the official sign. When indicators indicate, the price dictates, and when the price manages to give the reversal signs, that's the moment to act. Remember, our job as traders is not to guess; is act to the way the price act. And the last one, the Bitcoin. Last week we discussed about the possibility of the Bitcoin to complete its ABCD correction after the three waves. Well, clearly it did not complete the ABCD correction. But as I mentioned on the euro and the pound. After completed cycles, sometimes instead of ABCD, we enter to a range, and that's what happened here. I personally expected the move down here to continue until the bullish divergence completes. Clearly, I was wrong here, and the question is what's next with the Bitcoin. So to examine that, let's go back on the weekly chart. On the weekly chart, we are back to the bullish trend, and despite the bearish divergence that develops there, the trend never changed. We do not have any sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore, the buyers are still in control on the longer term, and the shorter-term correction ended up with, again, a range in that case. So what is next with the Bitcoin? As long as these lows hold, there is a great probability that we are ahead of the next rally until the next divergence will complete itself and until the weekly cycle will complete itself. But as long as this low holds, I believe Bitcoin is under the bullish pressure right now. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, after making the sequence of higher highs, higher lows, we want to see the retraces back to the ranging condition here or back to the broken resistance that became a support. Pay attention to the 2 key levels here, range 1 and range 2. It is all around the broken resistance that become a support. These ranges are important as that's where the— I call it the money zone. We got a big rally, then some range, right? Boom, another wave of rally, another range, and boom, another wave of rally. This is a significant technical sign, and as long as these levels hold, buying the dips from them is definitely a potential scenario with high probability. Also pay attention to potential bullish hidden divergence or inverted divergence by making higher lows on the price and lower lows on the MACD histogram. If that scenario takes place, then this is a great indication that Bitcoin is very likely to continue its rally as long as the recent lows will hold. That's pretty much it for this video, and as always, I hope you find the opportunities valuable, useful, and you enjoy them. 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