Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURCHF - 1 July 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, good week to all. Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community and to enjoy all the special offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club up to 1 year. The live trading rooms, the indicators from the marketplace, the trading system, private mentoring sessions— please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first pair I want to start this week would be the EUR/USD. As you might know already, this week is going to be busy with some holidays, so I want to take the opportunity and to wish all those of you All my Canadian followers, those who celebrate Canada Day, happy Canada Day! Best to you and yours, and I hope you will enjoy the long weekend. And also, Fourth of July is coming, so happy Fourth of July to all the Americans viewers and followers, and you as well. I hope you have fantastic time with your beloved ones. So the euro dollar, by the way, this is also non-farm payroll week. Okay, as we know, sometimes it tends to be quiet or tricky before the non-farm payrolls itself is published. So watch out for that. Euro dollar, last week we were talking about the predefined level we've had. There is a great chance. Let me just throw it. For you here, there is a great chance that on this predefined zone we are going to see some bounces to the upside. So the euro didn't do much pretty much the whole week. It was moving in between the 106.70 towards the 107.30, very tiny range, half percent back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. But technically speaking, it is in a key place, and the reason for that is because according to the weekly chart, there is great probability that the euro-dollar is going to try and complete the second leg of this corrective structure after completing 2 legs to the upside before, uh, starting from July 2022. Uh, so if the bearish momentum is still here, and according to the weekly chart and a daily chart, this is pretty much accurate. As we can see, we do have still sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and the most recent divergence on a daily chart is bearish while the market was creating the higher highs here versus lower highs on the MACD moving averages. Complete bearish converge divergence. After that, we get a flip— lower lows on the chart and lower lows on MACD histogram, flipping from negative to positive to lower negative. Pay attention also to this Bollinger Band volume profile zone, and you will see here that as long as that holds and the structure maintains, there is a very good probability that any rally here is just before the euro actually makes one more drop down. So if we go to the 4-hour chart, and we will see here that after the bullish divergence, the market is making bounces. First time was here, second time was here, but nothing significant happens. From that sort of price behavior, Usually what happens next is one of the two following scenarios. The euro could try to make some fake attempt for a rally before it breaks down and actually continues lower to continue and create the weekly second leg of the corrective cycle. The other scenario that could happen here, and also very common that it will continue within this range for some time before it breaks and continues. So as long as this structure remains as it is, the probability for the euro-dollar to move to the downside is bigger than Any rallies, and if this ABCD correction or the even the ranging structure I showed before on the four-hour chart continues for some time, what could happen here is that the euro dollar is going to actually complete a bearish hidden divergence while it will move in the range or attempt to make some rally to complete a new high. The market will still— the price will still offer lower highs while the histogram will make lower, uh, higher highs. And then it is a good bearish hidden divergence for bearish continuation. So long story short, my bearish view remains on. For me, it remains, at least at the moment, sell the rallies. The only thing that triggers for me a potential change on the view Sorry, is if this long daily range will be eventually broken. But as long as it did not, my view, at least at the moment, is bearish. What do you think about the euro-dollar? How low can it go from here? Or no sellers anymore, buyers are about to take the control? Share with us your view. And the way you see that in the comment section below this video. Our next pair for this video, the pound dollar. Before that, I would like to ask your support as you always do in the weekly videos, and thank you very much for that. If you find value and you appreciate this video and you find the value in watching that and with all the trading education and ideas I share with you, please hit this like button, few words in the comment section. Fantastic help with all the way that the YouTube algorithm works. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that and learn something new. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Let's continue, and thank you very much in advance for your help. Last week we spoke about the pound dollar. We covered this scenario that the pound is going. To do some sort of— let me just draw it for you guys— some sort of tricky rallies before it continues down to the key level and from there makes some deeper rallies. So, so far the pound-dollar maintains this behavior. It is pretty much similar to what the euro-dollar does, right? Rallies, move down, rallies, attempt to move down. And basically pretty much the whole week it's stuck doing nothing. So the biggest question remains also, uh, similar to the euro dollar: what's coming next? This is non-farm payroll week, and that could be— could turn to be a decisive week because we know how sensitive all the job market, uh, to the Federal Reserve decision with the potential, uh, rates, uh, cut. Okay. So there are 2 scenarios we follow. Scenario 1, for the buy, we need to break above this range and then we can talk about the long-term rally. Scenario 2, similar to what we saw on the euro-dollar, is that the pound-dollar is going to complete its ABCD. If we go to the daily chart, on the daily chart, again similar to what the euro-dollar did, we did face here a bearish divergence. Which then flipped to be a bearish convergence— lower lows on the chart and on the indicator. We got the rally that was blocked right on this huge supply zone. From there we got a beautiful bounce, and right now the price is holding below the volume profile balance zone. Technically speaking, everything is for now on the shorter in terms of the sellers, and as long as this long range I showed before, this one does not break to the upside, manage to hold on the to the upside, there is a good probability we are still bearish. Which means the way that the 4-hour chart currently looks like with the structuring lower highs, lower lows, every rally here could actually be for the sell. It could be either ABCD movement or some sort of a range similar to what we saw on the euro dollar before the continuation down. So my plan from the previous week remains on every rally here I believe let's go free pen here. By the way, this virtual pen I'm working here, this is one of our indicators in the marketplace I mentioned before, and you can get your copy of the trading virtual pen that allows me to draw on the chart below this video in the description. So for me, my view remains the same. Every rally here should bring the move to the downside, but I would definitely pay attention to this zone. There is a zone here, and that's a lot of money involved in this area. We can see also from the KTLI indicator of mine, the Key Trading Levels indicator, that the daily chart offers key levels here. And the previous daily chart was here that acted as a resistance several times already. That could be a massive support area. So if the pound really drops closer to this zone, I would be looking for this divergence to go and complete itself and provide bounces back towards this very balance zone. So on the short term, for me, it's still sell the rallies as long as the daily range holds, because break and hold above the range Change the picture, technically speaking. So as long as it holds, I'm bearish here. But once we enter this key zone, I would start to look for buys back to this volume profile zone. So that's my view for the pound dollar. Let me know what do you think about this one. By the way, for the pound dollar and also the euro dollar, take a look on the numbers. Okay, so let's take a look on the market trend snapshot. Um, one of our features in Home Trader Club. Take a look on the euro dollar. 1 month above 1% in the negative area. 7 days did nothing, as we already saw. 24 hours also nothing. But the, the main momentum here is still bearish, okay? And that's why technically it still connects to the numbers. The numbers are negative. So every rally here is still likely to connect to the bigger trend or bigger momentum before it actually will manage to change. And same with the pound-dollar. Take a look, same, same, similar. Okay, about 1%, a bit less than the euro-dollar on the 1-month, and the 7 days is about 0.5%, while 24 hours did nothing. So that connects pretty much ideally that the numbers currently in a bigger picture are more negative than, than a positive, and the technical could line up together and provide us opportunities. The next one for today would be euro franc. This is instrument I usually do not cover. However, technically speaking, it has a very interesting opportunity. So if we take a look on the weekly chart, on the weekly chart we did have at the end of these waves A fantastic condition of a false breakout, fake low, under bullish divergence everywhere— the MACD, the RSI. After that, we also saw the most recent trend line being broken, and the market then starts to create higher highs on the chart. If that is the case, I believe the euro franc should Provide buy opportunities or at least move within the range. So buy the dips could be a classical thing here. So going down to the daily chart, we currently see a beautiful bounce. I want to show you here something. Take a look on the Bollinger Bands. Okay, this is a Bollinger Band indicator of mine, the custom Bollinger Band, which I absolutely love to use. After the Bollinger Band was broken We reached the area of the dynamic Bollinger Band support resistance. This area here provided— you can see Bollinger Band duplication level, okay? This area provided a fantastic touch on the rising trend line and a bullish hidden divergence: higher lows on the chart, lower lows on the histogram. Great bullish sign. So I believe that we are now under a bullish momentum. Add the weekly chart to that, add the daily chart to that, and I think that drops here could provide further rallies. Now if we go to the lower time frame to try and determine the opportunities, I want to show you we actually traded this one this week in Home Trader Club. So We got in after the first push on the 4-hour chart, and our first target zone is actually here, okay, around the Fibonacci level 38.2, approximately the 0.963040 level up to 0.9685. So this is where we actually touched into today, funny enough, but it actually entered the zone for today. On the first target zone. So why do I show you that? Because I believe that this first push we got involved with is not the last one to come. So I want to show you how I approach towards that. Right now on the 4-hour chart, we did have the scenario where the market made lower lows. MACD moving average histogram. And RSI made bullish divergence, higher lows. Then the market flipped, making higher highs on the chart and the indicator. Beautiful condition. So for now, we see the market is making a push of 3 waves. So there are 2 scenarios I believe the euro franc is going to follow. Scenario 1, we're gonna bounce down somewhere between this broken resistance Access support or the demand area here, and from there provide further rallies. This is scenario number one. Scenario number two, which also is doable: we get a bit deeper push down. Okay, like this, something like that, to complete some sort of double low, double bottom, or some. New fake low with a bullish divergence on the daily chart. Both scenarios, I again we we either enter the four-hour chart zone and provides the bullish signs there for the buy, or if it drops lower, watch out for this bullish divergence to complete on the daily chart again, and from there going for the buy. We have key low here, here, and the broken resistance becomes support. So So if it completes that, that could trigger the further buy. For me, buy the dips is, was, and remains the plan for the euro franc. What do you think about this one? Share with us in the comment section below this video. And the final one would be the dollar yen. Another new high was created on this week and it keeps the speculation up to where the dollar-yen can go. So if we try to figure out the, the potential long-term target for the dollar-yen and we go to the bigger chart, we will see that the 100 level of Fibonacci extension of this first measurement, right, and if the first bounce already did its job. So technically speaking, it has the potential to go all the way up to 161, which is around 180. So for the long run, there is a great chance we're gonna see dollar-yen going there. But there is a big but— it starts to be very sensitive rally, and it starts to bring us serious problems to Japanese central bank, the government, and mainly the people. Uh, so I believe that later or sooner, without any choice, they will start to do something, take actions. They try to intervene once, they cause these drops several times, but nothing to change the trend yet. But with that being said, we are riding for more than 20 candles right on the Bollinger Bands Already last time it happened was here right before the major drop, and right now we never got a drop back to the lower Bollinger Band. So I think the pressure is for real and could provide some relevant drops before it continues to the 180. Weekly chart offers a developing bearish divergence. I said developing because we never completed yet a second peak, but it's there. It's developing. Daily chart offers pretty much the same. And if we plot Fibonacci extension on the daily levels, we will figure out a very interesting situation. So the dollar yen offers here a golden ratio. 61 to 161, uh, of Fibonacci extension of these legs. This is a golden ratio for triple waves or triple cycles. And the daily chart also is developing potential divergence on the MACD moving averages and the RSI within the second peak to complete. So if this temporary high is going to really hold. What I want to see on the 4-hour chart at the end of this rally, I want to start to look for fake highs. Fake high while the market is making lower highs on the MACD, and then we can draw the trend line and the recent low, break below the rising trend line, the bigger one or even the smaller one. The closest one, right? Break below that with lower lows on the chart, and we can talk about short-term sell the pullbacks here. Again, until the buys will continue further towards unbelievable levels. But unbelievable levels are for long term. On the short term, the pressure could provide these sell opportunities. So that's why I wanted to show— I want to see fake highs and the price to flip. So far it's clearly sequence of higher highs, higher lows without any flip, and no trend lines were broken. So once we have the 4-hour, daily, weekly divergences coming in together, 4-hour chart flips the trend and making the lower lows and then lower highs, sell the rallies would be my trading plan. Let me know how do you see about the dollar yen. I know many are talking about the 170-180 straight. I'm curious to hear what do you see on this one. Are you also bearish or bullish? Share with us in the comment section. That's it for this video. Thanks for watching. I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full trading courses for beginners and advanced. Comprehensive media zone, trading tools, access to the community, real-time training, education, and opportunities. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, thanks for watching. I hope you find value in this video, and please don't forget to like, uh, if, uh, you did so. Um, best to you and yours. Happy Canada Day and Fourth of July to all those of you who celebrate. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, good weekend, and And good week ahead. Bye for now.