Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD - 28 October 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks and thumbs up to 8capbroker for supporting our community to enjoy all the special offers we have with 8capbroker, including the access to Home Trader Club all the trading strategies, the trading systems, the indicator, private mentoring session, and the special dedicated short-term trading group, please refer to the link below this video in the description. Quick fundamental view before the charts. It's going to be a busy week with the main event this week is the non-farm payrolls on Friday, but pay attention to the lower house elections in Japan. Then a speech from the Governor Callum in Canada. Then we have the JOLTS job openings and the consumer confidence in the US on Tuesday, and the CPI quarterly and annual in Australia that could have direct impact on the Australian pairs. Of course, not only German prelim CPI, we have the ADP, the pre-nonfarm payroll report. We have the cash rate in Japan the night between Wednesday and Thursday, and we have on Thursday the core PCE price index. This is a very, very important one to pay attention to. You can see that recently the dollar gained a lot of strength. That's one of the reasons, the expectations of that any improvement below 0.3 Would be significant help here to the anti-dollar trading. I would definitely pay attention to that. That's big, big, big number here. And we have the CPI in Switzerland on Friday and of course the non-farm payroll. Let's talk the charts now. So the first pair for today would be the euro-dollar and I want to quickly follow up on the analysis we did in the last weekly forecast where our expectations was the EUR/USD to make the low and start its correction, at least for the short term. So before the charts, quick overview on the numbers. The numbers are very, very negative. This is, by the way, one of the features we have in Home Trader Club, the market trend snapshot. We can see the numbers are super negative and months is close to 3% negative. The last 7 days over 1%. 24 hours start to shrink a little bit, which hint a correction is likely to build up very soon. And that aligns together with what we see on the chart. So what do we have on the EUR/USD? Technically speaking, analysis-based, we have a phenomenal zone here. We have the rising support line And we have this low on the chart here that was cleaned. Okay, besides that, we have— I'll use my Bollinger Band indicator, my custom-made. We can see that we have a dynamic supportive zone with the break of this Bollinger Band. This is the dynamic duplication zone, first zone. Besides that, You can see that beautiful candle pattern structures there on the daily chart, and on the 4-hour chart we did have a bullish divergence already, and the most recent falling trend line was broken. So the euro-dollar in this format, in this way, we have 2 scenarios. Scenario number one, the ideal scenario, is that this bottom holds, the euro finds some comfortable support here and make its correction to clean the previous high and next to test the next important broken support that now becomes resistance. This would be the ideal scenario. We get there, from there very likely the euro is going to continue its bearish journey. Scenario number 2, the euro pushes lower. Down to where? And that's a very, very possible scenario. Uh, with the way it forms to the next key lows. We have low as a demand, low as a demand, and a massive supportive zone. So if the current low does not hold, let it go. It will retest this area, very likely complete the bottom and the oversold conditions, and from there begin much more powerful, I would say, or much more major corrective movement to the upside. So for me, the EUR/USD with the bottoms as it creates, it is conditioned— classical conditions to wait for possible reversals to the upside on the short term. For the longer term, my plan doesn't change and it is sell the rallies. The next pair would be the pound-dollar. Quick follow-up on our discussions from the last week. We were looking to see some corrective movement here and from there bearish continuation. Cannot say that the correction took place. It was a very flat week. Up, down, up, down, one more low, pullback. Really nothing happened with the pound dollar, and it's similar to the euro dollar. I believe the long run it is sell the rallies for the longer run. I think the pound dollar we are going here all the way to this zone. The question is, is it going to be straight and then retest the broken? Not the broken. Sorry, the rising support line and the demand levels. On the go, or will we get some pullbacks here, which is a very likely scenario, and from there the rallies, the drop? So that's exactly how I plan to work with the pound dollar. In ideal scenario, we should see the pound making two waves or some sort of a range with setting up the movement to the downside. On the short term, we can see that the bullish divergence is. There already, right? So it's either from this zone it makes the correction, or maybe one more low and then deeper correction and then a sell. Levels I will be paying attention to for the sell is of course this massive volume profile-based resistance level, massive supply we have here as zone number 1. Possibly for the pound to go and to clean the next peaks before the sell take off. But my plan here: sell the rallies. I believe the pound dollar has much more to go to the downside, as we saw before. 127 down to 125. I think that's the zone. In terms of numbers, it's not as bad as the euro. But we can clearly see 1 month is still very negative with over than 1.5%. 7 days were more flat, half percent. 24-hour actually a little bit positive. So that is usually numbers that show that a bullish correction is coming. I would definitely pay attention to the PCE number, should be published this week, and non-farm payrolls, of course. As they could dictate the current corrective movement as it is expected to be. Next one would be the dollar yen, a follow-up for the last week discussion. One of the scenarios we were talking about is the final push before a major drop down. So as on the numbers, it's super. Positive on the last months, as you can see, over 6%. That's way above the average. The 7-day starts to shrink over 1%, 24-hour is much smaller. Usually that is a sign that the buyers are getting weaker here and we are on a key zone supply area. Broken support, it becomes resistance. Take a look on this amazing zone, which is again zone of sellers. We are slowing down on the histogram. RSI is close to the overbought conditions. This is absolutely phenomenal zone. Uh, Bollinger Band, if we take a look on the Bollinger Band, once again the custom indicator I work with, we can see that We are now from the first break here. We are now on the first resistance area while the second one is not too far away and if we go with the recent break which is where is it here take the break from this area while against momentum we are now accurately on the zone so from my point of view. We should be looking for potential sales. Pay attention to what is happening with the elections there on Sunday, and of course the cash rate this week in Japan, and also the PCE index in the US, and of course non-farm payroll. Couple scenarios for the dollar-yen. The ideal one: we got the final rally here, we are still within the daily supply. The four-hour chart completes the divergence, and we are looking for the sell down to 150 at least, maybe even much much lower than that. Scenario number two: the dollar yen gains some momentum to the downside and breaks the rising trend line, comes for correction as a two waves over the range, and then completes the breakout, which signals another. Sell opportunity. So this is my trading plan on the USDJPY. I am after sell the rallies right now, on the fence waiting for the setups to form. I believe they should form on the coming week or weeks and provide opportunity. The final one would be the USDCAD, a pair we discussed 2-3 weeks ago and a quick follow-up. Our plan was buy the deeps with the expectations to see the dollar CAD completing its further move upside. So I believe for the long run the dollar CAD has all the reasons to continue higher until this weekly cycle will complete itself. For me it is bullish, buy the dips is the plan. On the short term though I would be paying attention for possible reversals to build very, very soon before the buyers will then take the control. The reason is if we take a look again on the Bollinger Band, let me show it to you here. We— this is the candle of the breakout. We are very close to the dynamic resistance zone on the Bollinger Band duplication. We are in a huge supply area, tons of sellers proven here and here already in play. We are very close to the daily overbought conditions, of course, and on the 4-hour chart we can see that the pair is building its waves to the upside and is building up its divergence. So I do believe the dollar CAD is forming some very strong possibility here for a deeper correction to start and build up down to these lows, maybe down to the trend line, the rising trend line, and from there I am— I will be after the buys. If we take a look on the numbers, USD/CAD stands proudly— here we go— under the bullish run. Monthly 1.5% to the upside, 7 days over 1%. It's bullish, so buy the dips is the plan. Short-term though, I believe the peak is very close. In the coming weeks, we should be looking for possible reversals to the downside. That would be it. For this video. Big thanks to, uh, of course, for watching, and I hope you find value in this video and the opportunities. Please hit the like button if you did. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you get your access to full comprehensive complete trading courses, real-time trading education and trading opportunities, of course, the access to our community any other of our educational content, Media Zone, and so, so, so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. Thanks for watching. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.