In this Home Trader Club video, Vladimir Ribakov delivers a weekly forex market outlook for the week of 21 October 2024. He begins with a brief macro‑economic calendar, highlighting the Bank of England governor’s speech, the Canadian cash‑rate decision, PMI releases in Europe, the UK and the US, and Canadian retail sales. He then provides detailed technical analysis and trade scenarios for four major instruments: 1. EUR/USD – Emphasises a strong demand‑zone identified via volume‑profile, Bollinger‑Band positioning (≈50 % deviation) and a bullish MACD divergence. Two scenarios are outlined: a bounce from the zone leading to a rally toward prior highs, or a final drop followed by a sharp retrace. 2. GBP/USD – Focuses on a broken daily low that creates a correction zone, weekly‑level divergence and an engulfing pattern. Expected short‑term pull‑back before a continuation down, with key resistance zones derived from volume‑profile and prior highs. 3. USD/JPY – Discusses a pending retest of a recent high, a potential mini‑wedge breakout, and the importance of a final rally before a larger down‑move. The bias remains bearish, with a “sell the rallies” approach. 4. Gold – Highlights overbought conditions across monthly, weekly and daily charts, triple‑time‑frame divergence (moving‑average based) and a likely top formation. Trade plan: watch for a peak, then sell on the downside after divergence confirmation. Throughout, Ribakov references the Home Trader Club’s market‑strength snapshot (monthly, 7‑day, 24‑hour momentum percentages) to reinforce his bearish bias. The video ends with a promotional call‑to‑action for the Home Trader Club membership and Eightcap broker partnership. The content blends macro‑fundamental context, multi‑timeframe technical analysis, specific price‑level recommendations, and actionable trading bias for each instrument.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to Eightcap Broker for supporting our community and to enjoy all the amazing offers we have with the broker. Please refer to the link below this video in the description. You will find there access to Home Trader Club, private mentoring sessions, all the trading strategies, the short-term day trading group, and so much more. Please take a look in the link below this video in the description. Quick fundamental overlook what we have this coming week. The main events would start on Tuesday where we have the speech from Bank of England governor. Mr. Bailey, uh, and then on Wednesday we have cash rate in Canada with expectations of half percent cut. That's significant, and it will be very interesting to see will the bank do that or will they hesitate, or what will they say coming after that. As the market already, um, sort of observed this news. Then we have the Canadian press conference, all that happens on Wednesday. And on Thursday, manufacturing and services PMI in Europe, in Britain, and then in the US. Very busy day on Thursday. Friday, it's all about retail sales in Canada. So what do we have in terms of the chart? The first thing For today would be the euro dollar. A quick follow-up on what we discussed on the last week. We predefined this key zone as the market should get there and from there begin the bounce. I expect that to happen exactly this way, and here is why. We have some very interesting levels here. We have dynamic supportive levels. We have key demand zone. A lot of buyers are here. We have huge volume profile zone based on the volume profile and based on the daily and the weekly time frames. Okay, this is very, very strong area. We cannot deny it. Very interesting, uh, another situation we have here is if we take a look on this Bollinger. So from upper Bollinger through the lower Bollinger, we are now on about 50% deviation, which brings it in again into very strong zone. And on the 4-hour chart, we can see we are overriding the Bollinger Bands here. For more than 20 candles right. It attempted to retrace from the first one, didn't actually do anything significant. Now is the second override on the lower Bollinger Band, and the pressure on the buyer starts to be significant. Last time it happened was here, right before the euro flipped all the way to the upside. So from my point of view, this is the very zone we expect to see the EUR/USD building its rallies. Yes, theoretically it could make one more push lower, but then the pressure on the pullback would be even more significant. So here are the couple scenarios I expect to see. Scenario number 1, if we draw the trend line here, the false breakout here with the bullish divergence on the MACD, um, that is, if the bottom is holding, we could expect the EUR/USD to start and make its rallies back to the key levels, the previous highs and the broken support that now acts as a resistance. From there, I would not be surprised if the euro will continue its bearish move down. An alternative scenario is if the buyers don't hold from here and we have one final drop down, look for this false breakout with the condition of lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD moving averages, and from there look for a significant retrace to the upside. So that would be my view on the EUR/USD. And if we take a look on the numbers of the Markets Trend Snapshot, we have in the Home Trader Club. The bearish momentum is significant. Monthly is close to -3% while the 7 days is over 1%. Only 24 hours shrinks, which shows a pullback is very welcome. It is right in front of the door as the number starts to shrink slowly. That pretty much fits what we see on the technical view. And next one for today would be the pound-dollar. Another very interesting thing and a quick follow-up to what we discussed on the last week. So we predefined this zone by breaking the low, the daily low, as the area where we could expect the pound-dollar to begin its correction to the upside. If we take a look on the daily chart, this low was indeed cleaned. So a pullback here on the shorter term is very welcome before— and that would be my major expectations— before the pound switches and goes again to the downside. The reason I expect further drop down, by the way, is simply because if we follow the weekly chart with this huge divergence we got there and the major engulfing we saw on the GBP/USD, correction is very, very likely. So with the way that the 4-hour chart forms its waves, we start to see some, uh, structure like 3 lower highs, lower lows. Very likely to assume the pound will try to make some correction, which could be ABCD or a range, and from there, very likely further continuation down. Key levels to watch for the GBP/USD: so these highs, of course, and this major volume profile-based area. And the second zone is slightly higher, covering all these peaks on the horizon and the broken support that becomes a resistance. So if this first area does not hold, and the second one should. And from there, the pound-dollar is very, very, very likely develop its further move to the downside. In terms of numbers, percentage change, once again, let's take a look on the market strength snapshot. Uh, and as you can see, monthly and 7 days is negative, not as the euro, but still negative zone. 24 hours shifts to the positive a little bit However, this is significant bearish momentum for the longer run, which once again supports the technical view: sell the rallies. Next one, the dollar-yen. Following our analysis from the previous week, we expected to see final rally before the sellers take the their control. This rally takes place. There is one missing part though on the dollar-yen at the moment. It did not yet retest the previously created high, which is pretty much significant here and here. It's very close but didn't fully retest it, and of course not the spikes here. So theoretically speaking, there is a probability that the dollar-yen will still try to do so just before the major move down. Regardless, the stronger— the closer we get to this area, the stronger the pressure begins to be. Sorry. And one of the scenarios I do see is break of this mini wedge going down, creating some corrective movement here trying to make a final rally just before the strong move down taking place. So this scenario, first of all, or some prolonged range here before the final rally is very, very possible scenarios. And of course, for me, it's sell for the longer run if we do have this final peak. Sell the rallies with each of these mentioned scenarios would be my trading plan for the dollar yen. In terms of numbers, numbers start to shrink. Look at the one month close to seven percent, way beyond the average. The one the seven days though starts to shrink much more significant. It's over percent, 24 hours close to zero, and that's another sign that the buyers are losing momentum. Be prepared for the flip and the switch of the direction. And the final one, gold, and that's a very strong rally that continuously happened with all the pressure happening around the world: the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine. The elections and the unknown of what's to come, the inflation which is still here, you name it, the gold is still making the highs. However, it is around the overbought conditions on the monthly chart, on the weekly chart, and very soon on the daily chart. So I do expect the gold to create a top very, very soon. What I would follow, or what I do follow, um, on the 4-hour chart, here are the ideal setups the way I see that. Dollar, uh, the gold does something like that, completing triple time frame divergence. 4-hour chart divergence with moving averages, the daily chart divergence moving average, weekly extreme and monthly extreme, and from there a significant sell. Another alternative scenario, if we got the peak, is 2 waves down, break of this trendline, for example, 2 waves up and the breakout. It would be a zigzag setup at the beginning of a move down if it happens this way. So the bullish momentum is still here. The highs could still continue and be created until the divergence completes. And the waves shift to the downside, don't rush with the sell, but definitely be ready. I believe the peak as it forms not so much far away, and yet I would not recommend to guess where will this peak be. That could be painful. That would be it for this video. I hope you find value in it, and if you do, please don't forget to like button and to subscribe to our channel. If you are new to this, uh, community, welcome. Of course, I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full, comprehensive, complete trading courses for both beginners and advanced, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, access to our community, our tools, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. Good trading. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye for now.
