Vladimir Ribakov breaks down the week's economic calendar and technical setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. He spots MACD and RSI divergences on daily and 4-hour charts, then lays out trade plans: sell rallies in the euro and pound, buy dips in yen and Canadian dollar.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with the broker, please refer to the link below this video in the description. You will find their offer to join the Home Trader Club up to one full year, private mentoring session, the trading strategies and the trading systems, the marketplace indicator, and so much more. Take a look on the link below this video in the description. Quick fundamental and what news we have this week. The main event we have this week is the rates in the eurozone. Last week CPI, PPI showed that the US economy is improving, but not in a pace that many were Hoping for. That's why the market didn't do much in terms of the dollar strength move. The expectations will be probably the next trade decisions. Monday begins with Columbus Day in the U.S., and kind of also day off in the central banks. Tuesday we are back to action where we have the claimant count change in Britain, the CPI. The monthly and the annual rate in Canada. Then we have the CPI in New Zealand, which is expected to surprise upside. CPI in Britain follows on Wednesday, and the employment change in Australia, and the rates in eurozone this coming Thursday. Retail sales and core retail sales in the US, and then retail sales in Britain. That's what's expected fundamentally speaking. Now let's start with the euro dollar, which will be our first one. A quick follow-up to the last week discussion: we prepared this zone as a zone for potential small pullbacks before further continuation to the downside. Consider during the week we got first bounce. Attempt for a second bounce, and the sellers are yet here, and I do not think it will change. Here is what I expect from the euro. What is all that? First of all, take a look on the—that's the market strength trend shot we have in the Home Trader Club. Take a look on the numbers in the euro dollar. The monthly is still negative. More than half percent. The last seven days more than one percent. Only the last twenty-four hours is somehow bullish, not significantly. That teaches us that the sellers are yet in control. But these numbers together with the with the technical analysis bring further probability for bearish continuation. We have this resistance holding on the euro dollar. Uh, we have the bearish pressure from the MACD. We— if we go to the daily chart, the recent 3 waves also ended up with a bearish divergence, false breakout here. You can see here, fake high, false breakout, and now we have lower lows on the chart, lower lows on the histogram, classical convergence. Now I expect to see some pullbacks taking place, but further on I don't see it going to change the game. I think that sell the rallies is still the plan, but on a short term we do have, as we saw— let's go back to the daily chart, you will see that a little bit cleaner— we have the rising trend line on a bigger scale. We have this trend line which already was broken, so very likely to assume This zone is next. Okay, we are moving here within this sort of a channel. So the way I would expect the euro dollar once again is sell the rallies. This whole zone here, okay, around the volume profile zone, around the previous lows, around the 200 moving average. Brings up possibility that the euro-dollar will try to make some rallies, but again, further move down is what I expect next. So with that idea in mind, we go to the 4-hour chart. We start to see some bullish divergence developing here, which again supports the assumption that this zone is one that could provide some Pullbacks and then sell the rallies remains the longer-term plan. That's my view on the euro-dollar. What would be yours? Share with us in the comments. The next one, the pound-dollar. We were talking about sell the rallies on the previous week with some hidden divergence. We're expecting to see lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the indicator. It happened to be, but after a very small pullback. So it's—I'm not sure it is enough for a more significant retrace. So similar to the euro dollar, the pound dollar is facing a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD as well as the RSI. We have a beautiful engulfing on the pound dollar and one more. Um, following week with the sequence where the sequence of lower highs, lower lows maintains. We have a bearish divergence on the daily chart as well. So my view is bearish. Uh, there are a couple of probabilities here. This low to be cleaned first of all, then a little retest, and then a deeper continuation. That would be the ideal scenario for the pound dollar from my point of view. That's the key low. I think anything below this area where we will complete the three, the structure of the three waves on the four-hour chart, complete some bullish divergence there, make the pullbacks towards this key volume profile zone, and from there. Again, something like that, and from there significant drop down. On the other hand, there could be second option, of course, where the pound dollar is trying to make some range or some ABCD correction here before prior breaking the previous low. And if that happens, then I believe then the next road of this pair is going to be much more significant. And we have these 2 huge trend lines to pay attention to, first and second. While the second one is the longer-term one I would be paying attention to for long-run sales, as it has huge volume profile, it is close to the dynamic 200 moving average, rising trend line. It simply looks like the destination, the next destination for the pound-dollar. Sell the rallies. It is for me. And if we take a look on the numbers on the pound dollar, similar to the euro, the last seven days dictates that the bears are here. The monthly is pretty much flat. So short-term sell the rallies is my plan. The next one dollar yen. Our plan from the last week gave us the buy the. Dips, expecting the final rally until the divergence completes, and then a sell-off. This plan did not change. We got a pullback at the beginning of the week. I believe the high is yet in creation. The reason I expect this plan to follow up is after a bearish divergence on the weekly chart and lower lows on the chart followed by lower lows on the indicator. Very possible to see the previous highs here being retested before anything significant comes next. On the daily chart, we had clean two waves to the downside. I believe that these two waves upside are now forming bearish hidden divergence is also forming. These are the key highs we have here. This is the huge zone, weekly high, broken support becomes resistance. And look at this area where buyers trying to reject or resist and sellers take control. This is the seller zone. So the closer we get there, the better the sell that was coming next. And that's my plan exactly. It stays as it was. Get that rally completed, and from there we are for the sell. So short-term bullish view was and remains on my plan, while for the longer run, at the end of this rally, I am after a major, very likely sell. And if we take a look on the numbers, dollar yen, the last month's 7 days are ultra bullish. The 7-day, the last 24 hours Getting flat a little bit. That's the whole market, so not just the dollar yen. I believe this one has a great probability to continue the bullish momentum, but also these numbers hint that we are out of the normal range of percentage change. So a correction or a trend change is very likely to happen soon. The final one, dollar CAD. I believe. This one prepared the ground for the final rally until this weekly will complete the cycle in the bearish divergence. So for me, it's bullish on a daily chart. These two waves ended with the bullish divergence, and now higher highs on the chart followed by higher highs on the MACD indicator and the RSI hints that the Buyers are in control for the long run, so buy the dips here would be my trading plan. On the short term, we now at a very strong zone after this zone was broken. This area here, it's a very significant zone. We already were here on some overbought conditions. Very likely we're gonna experience here some pullbacks. We have a rising supportive line. We have this inner zone. Zone number one is here. This inner area before buyers took control. Zone number two is here before buyers took control. I believe from the from here we're gonna see the dollar CAD making the move down and from there further continuation upside to complete the weekly. Divergence and the weekly cycle. 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