Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD (XAUUSD) - 10 March 2025 - by Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. The first pair for today, the euro dollar. What happened the last week? We will talk about all that, but before that, I want to take the opportunity to thank Eightka Broker for supporting our community and to remind you that you can enjoy the amazing offers we have together with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, including the access to all the trading systems, the private mentoring sessions, and so much more. Follow the link below this video in the description. What happened with the EUR/USD? What happened with the GBP/USD that caused them to rally more than 400, close to 500 points in a week? So the answer to that Trump's tariffs, but not in the negative view, because tariffs could be seen and should be seen from my point of view in a very negative view. What happened here is the way that the market anticipates these tariffs would have— would offer no choice to the Federal Reserve but cutting the rates earlier than they wanted. Many call that a very manipulative, speculative move by Trump to force the Federal Reserve cut The reason is very simple. Why should the Federal Reserve even consider cutting the rates? Because tariffs could lead sharply to the rise of the inflation, and this was exactly what the Federal Reserve was trying to prevent for the last several years. And not only the Federal Reserve, of course, all the central banks around the world. And now comes one. Political— you complete the name, there are many nicknames we can give him— and basically changes the game and brings back the fear that what's next? The trade war was never proven as an official way to deal with challenges. On the other hand, not doing Nothing also never proved to be the, the right thing to deal with challenges. What do you think about everything that happens with the tariffs, everything that Trump does and expected to do with Eurozone, with Canada, Mexico, China, and many more on his list? Let me know in the comment section. How do you see all that? But back to our discussion, the euro and the other dollar pairs. Like the pound dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar. Even though the last week they had the bearish structure, everything changed dramatically at the beginning of this week when the tariffs actually took place. I'm talking about Canada and Mexico and of course the eurozone and China. So that's what caused the euro to rally. The last week I was looking. I know it looks. Very crazy right now, but I was actually looking to sell here with these two key levels. This and here. Look for the sell opportunities. Obviously, this was a wrong anticipation, and the euro, as soon as it breaks through these levels, it opens the gates. I was very surprised personally how quick it could rally despite the technical conditions. In that case, which of course, as we know, technical conditions are absolutely irrelevant when something like that happens, when something with such a big fundamental impact happens. Of course, technical analysis becomes secondary, right? But after the wave, after the craziness, Uh, and after the things come down, we reach to the place where things should slow down, and I believe they would slow down. Uh, so what is expected with the euro dollar now? While the longer-term analysis might change the game here, it's very early to, um, judge at the moment, but we might see the euro dollar trying to do something like that eventually. It's again, it's very early to to to judge at the moment with the current structure of the waves. However, on the shorter term, the euro dollar is right now retesting key zone. Take a look on this huge key level here based on the volume profile. This is based on our KTLI indicator. We are also retesting these previous swing highs. Which provides for us a strong supply area where the sellers already proved their interest. We also see the EUR/USD basically coming close to overbought conditions, which is an absolutely powerful area. And if I plot my Bollinger Band indicator, the custom Bollinger Band indicator, we will see that the duplication of the Bollinger Band, basically the dynamic resistance based on Uh, the Bollinger levels is also here, which makes me think, yes, the euro could go and flirt, if that's the correct word to use here, uh, with these levels. But on a shorter term, that pullback here is very likely due. And if we take a look on the lower time frames, the way to time that Again, take a look on the Bollinger Band. We are overriding more than 20 candles right on the upper band. Last time it happened was here before the previous sellers took control. Now it happens around this zone, and now as we can see, very likely here with this slowdown and around, we should see bearish divergence. While the market makes some higher highs, the euro makes the lower highs. Which makes me think the euro enters here in the key zone, right, where it should be able to start and bringing back the corrections. I covered the euro-dollar in a short video. You can watch it here during the week where the plan we discussed was simple, right? Buy the dips with the expectations to see further rally. This plan did not change, at least at the moment. However, on the short term, due to all the levels and the reasons we just marked, this peak should be formed and the correction is very likely due. It might happen in the coming week. It might build up in the coming week and happen in the next few weeks range. But that's definitely an interesting opportunity. And if we take a look on the— in terms of numbers on the euro-dollar, look how it flipped from the last week. 1 month, 4.5%, uh, on the plus zone. 7 days, over 3%. Absolutely insane. 24 hours slows down, which again hints that the momentum of the buyers that was there at the beginning of the week slows down. Usually as soon as the numbers leave the normal zone, and 4% and 3% in such a short period are usually not normal numbers, then the market tends to create the setups, technical setups for the retrace. Next one would be the pound-dollar. Last week we were talking about the pound-dollar in terms of 2 key levels where we should be looking for this pair to actually rally. I was expecting to see the pound-dollar making something like that first of all, which obviously did not happen. But the zone turned to be a key zone to hold the buyers in that case, or to resist the sellers that were trying to take the control here before making the push to the upside. So what does that mean next on the pound-dollar? Similar to the euro-dollar, the way I see that, the pound-dollar has 2 options in terms of the long term. The first option and the logical option is that the pound dollar will try to move in some way like that before the next rally actually takes place. Okay, with that idea in mind, there is a very serious option the pound dollar is going to create this short-term peak before it bounces back again on the shorter term. If we drop to The daily chart, what we will be able to see right now with this breakout of the Bollinger Band, we are now around the key zone of the Bollinger Band duplication. Besides that, we have very strong zone here, tons of proven sellers and volume profile-based balance zone. This is a very, very, very strong technical sign and strong technical level. Keep in mind that we are also close to overbought conditions, which makes me think we are now in an area where the sellers— here, tons of sellers, right? They were building up the position and then boom, the massive, the massive zone take place, which makes me think this area should resist at least on the short term and start providing the opportunities to the downside. If we take that to the lower time frame where the opportunities should be happening, we are now similar to the EUR/USD, are riding on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles. Last time it happened, uh, on the bullish direction, what happened here before the correction. On a bearish direction, it happened here before the rally took place. Now it happens around this peak. Uh, and that's what makes me think, together with the daily supply levels that we just saw, together with the Bollinger Band resistance, together with the 130 round number, which may make me think that this zone, key zone where pound-dollar should slow down, right, and start its correction to the downside, and it should be Pretty interesting opportunity from my point of view. And on the lower time frame, that could of course bring to one of the most, uh, beautiful technical setups I love to follow: fake breakout through the high, fake highs, all that after the bearish divergences take place, and then the flip Making the lower lows, pullbacks, and corrective structure. So I believe that this momentum around this zone is running out of steam, will run out of steam before the correction actually takes place. Let's take a look on the numbers. But before that, I want to remind you that during the week we upload great trading opportunities and articles for you. In our blog. All you have to do is during the week— you can also set up notifications here, so whenever we have new content, it just notifies you on your browser. All you have to do is go to the blog vladimirribakov.com, enjoy our daily content we upload for you here. Of course, you can go to our Forex education content here, get tons of great stuff that would be helpful in your trading. And now let's examine the numbers. Similar to the euro-dollar, pound-dollar flips on the, on the, from the negative to the positive zone. One month over three and a half percent, seven days over two percent, twenty-four hours slows down, which usually hints the momentum is losing and a correction is very likely building. The numbers lined up perfectly with our expectations. From the technical analysis. Next one would be that dollar yen. Dollar yen, as you remember from the previous week, we expected to see the pair rallying towards this key zone right before it actually flips and pushes the prices to the downside. Let's go to the numbers. And as sorry, that's the blog. And as you will see here on the numbers, take a look on the one month. We are four percent negative. The further it goes from normal numbers, which usually are 1, 1.5, 2% changes, the further we go out of normal average, the stronger the pressure it would bring on the sellers and the hint for a possible reversal to take place. And that's exactly what we see with the dollar-yen. At the moment, and last seven days the numbers start to shrink less than one percent. Last twenty-four hours going bullish view. This is a great sign, which from my point of view brings the possibility on the dollar yen to start some corrective movement. We we have some very interesting technical signs here. We have a beautiful. Dynamic support area here. We have slowly creating wedge on the 4-hour chart and also here on the 1-hour chart with the bullish divergence that is clearly there on the 4-hour chart. I believe the drop down for the long term is not over, but on the short term, dollar yen should provide some corrections here, which I would be expecting to see then pushing it lower again. A few key levels on the way. Of course, this major zone here, the previous supply area, but also this short-term zone where we have the dynamic 200 moving average and 50 moving average, which many times, as we know, behave as a dynamic resistance. On the downtrend, it was here, here, and now here. Now very, very, very possible that this zone would be tested unless the market will have some surprises. The zone will be tested and from there the price would push down again to join with the weekly trend. The final one for today, the gold. Last week we marked this key zone here where we should expect to see Pullbacks from. I was expecting the gold to do some ideally couple of waves before that, but it didn't yet at least correspond to the waves. It bounces off the zone, making the retrace to the upside. And the biggest question is what's coming next. There are two scenarios I see on the gold. First of all, we are currently holding a strong supply area. Tons of sellers here and of course here in this inner zone. Lots of sellers, right, rejecting the buyers here and pushing the prices. As long as it holds, I would not be surprised if this range breaks down and actually makes the gold to push to the second wave to the downside. That could go and make some sort of a range here as well before the next rally takes place. That's the first possible scenario. The next scenario on the gold is similar to what we discussed the last week. We expect to see the gold making a final rally, a final peak. So that could also be the scenario here after some time, right? The gold makes the push, completes the bearish divergence, and that would be multi-timeframe— weekly, daily. And I believe in that case also 4-hour would line up before the next major sell-off will take place on the gold. So these are the couple of the scenarios the way I see on gold. That would be it for this video. 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