Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD - 7 October 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, good weekend. Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks and thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community and to enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, private mentoring sessions, the short-term trading group, the trading systems, the indicators, and any of the other offers, please refer to the link below this video in the description. First thing, the fundamental overview. The last week was all about the European CPI, which was published on Tuesday and showed improving numbers and the probability that the rates will continue to decrease. Then we had a rumor leaked that in the Bank of England they consider to go with aggressive or more aggressive cuts than usual also. And the cherry of the, of this last week cake, if we can call it this way, was the non-farm payrolls, which show that the market, the job market, is yet strong despite some fears of the Federal Reserve. And with that, we saw the dollar gaining some strength, something that could remain on the short term due to the suspect that the Federal Reserve would not be able to cut the rates as easy as they thought. So this week, the first official week of October, it starts with the cash rates in New Zealand. Where they are expected to cut by 0.5%, as you can see, uh, here on Tuesday. Then we have the FOMC meeting minutes. This is very, very important one. And of course, the core CPI and the annual CPI in the US, which is again expected to show improving numbers. However, with the recent job report, that could be Could be tricky. Any glitch, or let's say not as improving numbers as it looks right now, and the dollar can continue to gain its strength. Then we have the PPI in U.S. on Friday together with the job market in Canada. So now let's take a look on the chart. So we were talking about I want to start with yeah the euro. Dollar. What's that? Oh, the euro dollar. We were covering that in the last week with the expectation— a quick follow-up and then we will talk about what's next— with the expectation that these divergences should complete and we should be able to see the move to the downside. One of the scenarios we were talking about is basically the break below the most Recent trend line with either the direct move or after making one final fake high, which didn't happen. So this trend line was broken. We got the lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator, and now the euro dollar gains some momentum, making the lower lows, lower highs. What's next with the euro dollar? So if we go back to the weekly chart where everything starts from. just remove the not needed line. We can see that these highs still hold, and that's a very suspicious sign as there is also some bearish pressure here from the indicators. So there is a very good probability the EUR/USD has, at least on the shorter term, room for a further continuation to the downside. So with the weekly resistance holds and the daily completed these 3 waves and first moved down and now making lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator. That gives us convergence conditions, which technically speaking means sell the rallies. This volume profile-based zone and a 200 moving average and the rising supportive line we have here could be a great target for these short-term sells. On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the EUR/USD starts to show overriding on the lower Bollinger Band, which by itself brings the possibility that we should on the short term see some pullbacks, uh, or some recovery before that continues to the downside. Last time such thing happened was here when it was riding on the lower part of the Bollinger Bands. So I do expect somewhere from this zone euro to make the rally before it tanks and continues to the downside. So if we take a look also on the numbers we have in our market trend snapshot in Home Trader Club, you can see— where is my euro-dollar— that from a very bullish run we've had in the last several weeks The euro completely shifted to negative zone when the monthly now is below— it's more than half percent on the negative zone, and the last week is close to 2% negative. That means the bearish momentum is still here, so the rallies is very likely the plan. With all the news to be published this week, of course, things could on the short term be more sensitive. But it looks like sell the rallies is the plan for the euro dollar. Next pair for today, the pound dollar. A follow-up or a quick follow-up. Let's remove the not needed need of the previous week forecast. My expectations were that once we get the drop, look to buy the pound dollar for further continuation. This plan failed. That was not what the pound wanted to. To do with the strength from the US, with the decline we saw on pound after the central bank hints they might consider more aggressive rates cut. The pound loses its value, which now brings back the bearish divergence we are seeing on the weekly chart, coming back being relevant. All that happened to be next to the supply zone. I wanted to see that zone touched before the reversal, but seems like the market has different plans. We have beautiful equal tails engulfing here on the weekly chart. That's a very strong sign. On a daily chart, similar to the EUR/USD at the end of the 3 waves, We see bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD, the histogram, and the RSI— triple divergence— while the 4-hour chart also, uh, making its classical conditions of a false break, lower lows on the chart, lower lows on the indicator, and now regain with making lower lows, lower highs— classical condition I expect the pound-dollar or basically clean this low or at least get closer to this zone, make some recovery here on the short term, look for some bearish hidden divergence, lower highs on the chart versus lower lows on the indicator, and look for another corrective leg to the downside. So that would be my trading plan on the pound-dollar, and if we check the numbers Of the percentage change, you will see the pound dollar while the monthly now is flat after having like three percent to the upside. Now the seven days more than two percent negative. That's very significant. It shows a clear shift of momentum here. Sell the rallies would be my trading plan. The next one. Dollar yen. Now I want to start with the numbers here. As you will see, unlike the euro and the pound, dollar yen gains the momentum here on all the numbers. Monthly is 2%, 7 days is close to 4%, last 24 hours over a percent. That's very strong sign that the buyers are in control. Long story short, buy the dip seems the legit plan here. So what do we have here? A follow-up to our one of the recent weekly forecast with the we were talking about getting here some higher highs, higher lows, drop and further rally. As you can see, the dollar yen delivers exactly this plan. So what's next with this one? The way I see that it should go back to this key zone, which is basically anywhere in between the 152. 155, a peak here, a hidden supply zone here with this spike. I believe that's where we are heading. On a daily chart, if you plot Fibonacci on the whole move down, you would learn that all that level we discussed is between 50 to 61.8 Fibonacci, which is absolutely phenomenal. This peak and these spikes That's where I want the dollar yen to reach, and I believe it should go get there. So for me, buy the dips is still the plan. If we go to the four-hour chart, we can see very interesting combination of events here. Let me just erase that. Look at the Bollinger Band. Okay, so this is what I work with my dynamic Bollinger Band. Indicator. Look at this beautiful since the breakout zone, zone one, zone two. Okay, so from zone one, very possible if we get pullbacks here, look for the buy further buys and closer to zone two could be the area. Even if we go with the first breakout, then still it shows the room. Towards the zone. So the way I see that with the dynamic resistances and the way that the waves are forming, I believe now we had the first run, some pullbacks, and further rallies to complete these divergence should be the trading opportunity for the dollar yen. What do you think about this one? Let me know in the comment section. And the gold would be the last one I do Quick follow-up on the previous week. We were ideally saying that we should see one final run before the turnaround event, and I believe the gold is not far from there as we are overbought on the monthly chart. Take a look on the weekly chart where we are also next to the overbought and we are overriding the Bollinger Band. For more than 20 candles. Last time it happened with the overbought condition was here. We all remember the the change after that. Before that, it happened here with the overbought and had a significant drop as well. I believe we are not far from peaking and beginning its correction to the downside. The daily chart is likely to complete its divergence. Ideal scenario for me would be final run, some divergence to complete here, and then with the beautiful ending 3 waves and divergence, go and look for the sell. So ideal scenario for me after the recent wavings on the 4-hour chart would be if the gold can take these waves, complete the final rally Something like that. Make some fake high, okay? Some under divergence one or two false breakouts, and then we have the trend lines here and the bigger trend line where we should be looking for breakouts and movements towards the next trend lines. So this should be the plan to follow. Alternatively, if the peak was already formed. We would want to see the gold forming 2 waves down, 2 waves up, and breakout like in a zigzag setup. But with the recent price action, kind of tricky to see that happening, to be honest. So that's why I believe one final peak should be a good opportunity, um, to look for sell opportunities afterwards. So, uh, that's it for this video. I hope you find value in this, and if you do, please Please don't forget to hit the like button. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And I want to invite you to our trading family, Home Trader Club, to get your access to our full courses, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, access to the community, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. I wish you a wonderful month of October ahead. Good trading. And I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Thanks for watching. Bye.