Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD (XAUUSD) - 7 April 2025 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. The markets are bleeding. We saw what happens with trade war. Trump announces he is insane, unrealistic. Many titles the markets already gave to this move: tariffs. With one clear vision in mind: bring it back to America. Bring back the jobs. Bring back the factories, the manufacturing, everything back to America. How will that be with all this war? Time will tell. Time will judge. We can say he is very lunatic. We can say he is genius doing making this move. Lots of things. Of course, let me know what do you think about his theories, by the way, in the comments. But one thing is for sure, and that's the volatility is here. To the good, to the bad, that depends on which of the sides you are of the trade. But the markets are bleeding the last couple of days, and it is a significant drop down. So the biggest question is, is it over? And what will the opportunities, uh, be like for us the traders. So, uh, let's begin with the first pair for today, that would be the EUR/USD. Before we begin, as always, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community, uh, and to continue and enjoy our absolutely fantastic offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club up to 1 full year. All the trading systems and indicators from our marketplace, all the trading tools and private mentoring sessions. You can enjoy the offers with the link below this video in the description. Euro dollar, what is going on here? So on one of our recent weekly forecasts, which you always can find on my channel, was the last week. One of the scenarios we were talking about— we prepared for 2 scenarios, but one of them was what will happen if the euro starts to make the rallies. So if we got the 2 waves up, moved down, holds this volume profile balance zone, which happens here, we can expect the euro to make this push to the upside. This scenario managed to happen Thanks, of course, to Trump and all that. But what's next with the euro dollar? So here is what happens with the euro dollar at the moment. We are around the key, I would say major supply zone. Broken support became a resistance, and of course the previous peaks which hold and hold significantly. But moreover, what I like about this situation right now, that at the end of these three waves. We can see the euro dollar start to develop a bearish divergence. So how will that play at that area? One thing I want to before we talk about all the charts that these conditions are not technical. What everything happens in the market right now, it's a lot of speculations what will be and not necessary technical conditions. So. The fundamental right now has a significant role. What will happen next with the euro-dollar? There are a couple of scenarios. One of them is that after the current pullback, which supposed to scare the people, the euro will actually make the next climb to clean the next highs on the the line. That's a very, very realistic scenario. And if you add to that the fact tariffs, uh, and the expectations from the market that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but cutting the rates several times during 2025— by the way, the market already prices like 5 cuts, uh, by, by 25 points. But the job market, the non-farm payroll, doesn't look like it's going to be making a— giving the Federal Reserve easy life. And therefore, there are really, really, really, um, unstable days ahead of us. So let's break it down, what to pay attention to. Currently on a daily chart, we have a divergence, which means the pullback is due. It could be either in some sort of a ranging scenario, then make the rally to the upside with the weekly chart. It could be one fast move down that will bring here, after a significant drop, it will bring a bullish hidden divergence— higher lows on the chart, lower lows on the MACD— and from there rally. And the other possible scenario is that the euro simply will establish A peak here, okay, dance around the zone and will bring down the moves. So what to look for, uh, possible scenarios to trade. So for long, we discussed about that. For short, I would be looking for some playoff like that. One false breakout, okay, so basically one more rally. Fake high divergence on four-hour divergence on daily chart and look for the sell. Other option, I'm referring to of course the waves. Yeah, is two waves down, two waves up breakout and enjoy the next portion of the sell. And of course for the buys, as we discussed, it's either one clean big major drop and then the rallies or. ABCD to the downside, ideally back to this area to clean this zone and then rally with the weekly chart. This would be the price behavior I personally would pay attention to in order to get involved and to trade this pair. Next one, GBP/USD, which we got a beautiful quick follow-up here on what we discussed in the last weekly video. Uh, we wanted to see this rally taking place. That was one of the scenarios we discussed, back to the supply zone, and from there get the major drop to the downside. So what's next with the GBPUSD? I see that pretty much similar to the EURUSD. Uh, I believe that these 2 waves on a weekly chart should bring either ABCD on the weekly chart and then a rally or some sort of a range here, which is a very likely scenario, and then a bigger rally. So at the moment, I believe the GBP/USD is due to the corrective move to the downside. If we go to the daily chart, we can see that this is a major engulfing followed by a false breakout with a bearish divergence. We are going back to Below the strong volume profile zone, and you can see here key trading level ahead of us. So I would be looking on the shorter term for the pound dollar. This is the first leg. Make some corrective movement here back to the possible supply levels, right? And from there, looking on the shorter term, further move down. So I believe the pound is due to ABCD correction. Or some wide range ahead of us before it will actually build anything else. I believe we are now entering the corrective structure, which means on a shorter term, sell the rallies is my preferred plan. The next one, dollar-yen. A quick follow-up on a video we discussed, I think about 2 weeks ago, 2-3 weeks ago. You can find all the video again on my YouTube channel. We were looking for the price here to get back to the zone of the dynamic moving averages and major supply zone where from we discussed that very likely the dollar-yen will take another dive, which clearly happened again a lot thanks to, uh, the tariffs and everything. The biggest question, what is next with the dollar-yen? So here is what I believe gonna happen. So first of all, I believe that according to the weekly chart, we are still in a corrective structure, which means we are heading down to complete the ABCD correction, or at least to continue and move inside the range, which is very likely still bring to move to the downside. On the daily chart though, unlike Uh, the weekly, right? We are currently facing some divergence here. I say some because usually such divergence against the weekly divergence bring nothing more than some temporary, uh, move, maybe attempt to retest the highs, uh, or some range. But usually these moves are not significant, and after these moves the pair continues down. I believe we should see this zone— I would mark it here— where buyers were in control before. Buyers, buyers, buyers. This zone should be eventually retested. So from my point of view, USDJPY is under sell the rally zone. I would be looking for this further continuation to the downside. That's my view. What do you think about this one? Share with us in the comments. And the final one, the gold. We discussed last, uh, video that we want to see this rally taking place, then false breakout with a bearish divergence before the gold takes the dive to the downside. We actually enjoyed this trade also in Home Trader Club last week. Let's take a look in the members area. So here is our sell trade we discovered on the 1-hour chart. This flip, it was 1-hour and 4-hour similar with the bearish divergence, lower lows on the chart, and the retrace towards the trigger zone. Beautiful sell, 23.6, 38 Fibonacci targets. And, uh, the— as we can see, uh, on Yeah, here we are. 23.6 was reached, and then we have the 38.2, uh, target that we are heading down to. So what is next with gold? Uh, the way I see that, we are around key conditions. Why? Monthly chart— let's not— because we're gonna trade it, just to understand— we are in overbought condition. This means it's a significant peak. Weekly chart follows the same path, as you can see. Moreover, on the weekly chart, we are— let's put the Bollinger Band— we are right in between the dynamic Bollinger Band resistances. Uh, absolutely phenomenal conditions. And on the daily chart, which is the main scenario for us, we can see that between the last peaks RSI starts to slow down. MACD not yet. RSI starts to slow down, which usually brings, uh, the correction. I'm not certain if the all-time high is completed, most likely not, but I believe correction is due. And the way it behaves right now on the 4-hour chart, on the shorter time frames— 4-hour chart made the lows And it happens to be in 2 waves, 1, 2, which usually follows by the next pass, or it makes some correction here and another dive down, or it completes 3 waves first of all to clean the next low, and from there you can look for the dynamic support levels, broken resistance that became support of course, and from there look for the buys, at least on the shorter term. So that's pretty much what I would expect to see from gold in the coming week. What's your thought? Then share with us in the comments. So that's it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in it. If you did, please hit the like button, and if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full courses, real-time education, and real-time trading opportunities we share with you in our channel. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I wish you good trading, and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.