Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD (XAUUSD) - 13 May 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly Forex forecast. Before we start, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting this channel and our community and to enjoy all the absolutely fantastic offers we have with 8K Broker. Including the access to Home Trader Club up to 1 full trading year, including the live trading rooms for Day Traders Project, access to my trading systems, private sessions, and more, please follow the link below this video in the description. The first pair for today would be the EUR/USD. There is a very big Event happening this week, probably bigger than others. The latest. The reason is we are approaching to the mid of 2024 before the elections in U.S. And this week we will have the PPI reported and the CPI reported in the U.S. Both have significant effect impact on what will happen with the coming rates decisions in U.S. The reason I say that because before 2024 started, the Federal Reserve. Gave this illusion, I would say, feeling that very possible that 2024 we will start to see the market making, um, uh, the conditions to cut the rates. And the anticipation for that, the percentages, right, the odds for 2 and 3 cuts in 2024 were skyrocketing. Reality is not always as anticipated, right? Especially when it comes to the economics and financial markets. And what happened in reality is that the numbers, the inflation, still not good around the world. It slowly, slowly, slowly shrinks to the levels that it starts to feel like the cut is Possible, but they are still in majority of places. The inflation rate is still more than 50% from the target. Like for example, in the U.S., the target is 2%. Inflation rate now is above 3%, more than 50% difference. So the way to there is still long. Now, as per the anticipation, the market, the analysts expect to see 3.4 instead of 3.5 in the previous read, in the annual read. So any numbers to the left or to the right of the expectations will bring back the speculations what is happening next. Will the Fed be able to actually cut the rate by the second part of 2024? And remember the elections, they need it. They need to show they do everything for the public, Fed included. So that's what, uh, is the biggest question right now. And if the market managed to go to 3.4 or even better in the annual read, including The slowing down job market that we saw recently from the NFP reports would give a big boost to the anti-dollar moves. So the first pair I want to cover is the EUR/USD because this one has a couple of possibilities it's going to follow. So according to the weekly analysis, we are still— we remain still in the same category of either ABCD before further rally Or a range. 2 waves to the upside completed. Range here would be classical for the breakout and further rally to the upside. And that's a very, very possible scenario here. And for that, if we go to the daily chart, what we will want to see— that this is the weekly range, right? What we will want to see is the market basically making the momentum through the range, meaning completing the sequence of higher highs, higher lows to give the understanding that the buyers are indeed in control because buyers when they buy them bullish trend, the sequence of higher highs, the sequence of highs and lows is to the upside. Also pay attention to this volume profile balance. Zone. This area is very, very, very strong zone, and right now the price is below that. This is the balance area. The price is below. So far, buyers fail to take the control. So the first scenario is basically the CPI supports it well, and we see the euro-dollar going through this range and then buy the pullbacks would be definitely a logical option. Scenario number 2 is by the— by Wednesday when the news are about to be published, right? The euro slows down here. We have a massive supply area here from the daily chart, right? Dynamic resistance zone also Here, not too far from there. We have the volume zone that let's say there is a very strong probability the euro is actually holding that breaks below this range and opens the door for the final drop towards the previous low. So that is definitely a possible scenario as well after the news. Okay, we have this currently ongoing range. So if this key zone we discussed before and the supply area from daily chart holds, and let's say the market completes this movement here, right, break below this zone and then going for a retest gives a green light for the sell, expecting the daily chart and the daily low to be eventually retested. Okay, so these are the 2 scenarios to follow on the euro dollar. And as you can see, the market does what the market always do in such cases— it brings to that very point on the chart where both scenarios, both trading plans could easily trigger and have classical justification, uh, on the, on the charts. Let me know what do you think about the euro dollar and how do you see this one. Share with us below this video in the description. Next pair for today would be the pound dollar. But before that, if you find value in this video, you appreciate trading opportunities, please hit the like button. If you are new to our channel, please consider To subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to remind you that we have new series of ebooks in the blog, so all you have to do is to go to the blog VladimirRebakov.com, then Forex Education and Free Ebooks, download and enjoy the read. Similar to the euro dollar, the pound dollar has two waves on the weekly chart, which hints that the next scenario is either ABCD like the euro dollar or a range. Before buyers take control again for the long run and push it all the way here. Now with that in mind, we have couple of approaches exactly like with the euro— oopsie, wrong button pressed here— exactly like with the euro-dollar. If we manage to see the pound-dollar pushing through this range that is already forming by making these 4 spots, right? If we complete the higher highs, higher lows through the range, it gives a great green light that the buyers are back in control or sellers leaving that dramatically and we are going all the way to new weekly highs. However, exactly like with the EUR/USD, we have a key balance zone based on the volume profile here, dynamic resistance. Also, the 200 moving average here brings its— sorry, the 200 moving average is here, this is actually 50— brings the dynamic resistance zone moving average based. So with that in mind, we have 2 scenarios we follow for the coming Uh, week. Scenario number 1, which would be absolutely classical, is we already have the structure in the sequence of lower highs, lower lows, and ABCD correction which breaks to the downside and make lower lows. So scenario number 1 is that at the end, and assuming the CPI and the PPI, uh, don't give any hope To the investors and traders for a coming cut, then assuming this is happening, the pound dollar actually give gets the bearish momentum, and as long as this zone holds, pound dollar can actually go and start its drop down. So again, if the if after CPI the news disappointed, right, and this area holds, then it will probably do something like that and get the momentum to the downside. This would be classical scenario for the sell, completing the weekly ABCD or a range with anticipation to have at least one more low. So this is the first scenario. Scenario number 2 on the GBP/USD Is what happens if the buyers take control? So if before Wednesday, Tuesday and Wednesday, right? Two key levels, two key dates. The pound dollar does something like that, okay? And holds this area. We can expect the pound dollar to complete some bullish divergence. And if the news actually give the bullish fuel, bullish, let's say, trigger for the buyers and the news of the CPI inflation rate in the US surprise to the good side, we can expect the GBP/USD to start its rally towards the top of the weekly range, which gives a huge room for this move to go. So this is pretty much what I would be expecting on the pound dollar for this week, and that's my trading plan for these two scenarios. Whatever the CPI and the PPI bring to us, that's what we will follow. What would you think about the pound dollar? Share with us in the comment section. Next one on our list is the dollar yen, one of the biggest manipulated instruments recently after. Retesting the 160 and the first drop down for around 800 points from the peak, the USDJPY is forming an absolutely beast bearish divergence on the weekly chart, also the monthly chart. And on the daily chart, after bouncing off the overbought conditions and make huge move down Dollar yen is bouncing back. Biggest question: What is coming next? On the last week, we were talking about one of these possible scenarios where the dollar yen is going to make ABCD correction and then a breakout for the further move down. So as you can see, it is forming itself, and it is very likely it will continue this formation until after. The CPI. One of the main instruments affected by everything happens in the US are the yen pairs. The reason is the carry trading, the swap trading, the interest rate trading. Those investors who are holding their positions against the yen just because they can get great returns just by holding the positions. Don't tell no one. It is secret. Yeah, just joking, of course. And with that in mind, if the interest rate in the US stops to be that attractive and there is an expectation for further cuts or coming cuts, the dollar yen and other yen pairs starts to be less attractive, and that's what could give the fuel for the move down. So if by the news we get this ABCD and breakout or any range and Breakout, I am after sells. Okay, could that happen to be that the dollar yen still makes the final rally here for all-time high? Theoretically, yes. At the moment, I don't see that happening. The level, the sensitivity level here is. Realistic. Again, theoretically it could happen, but I at the moment I don't see that happens. But if it does, then the next high is going to basically complete the three waves, and then multi-timeframe divergence from weekly, so from monthly to weekly to daily, would give enough reasons for the sellers. To step in and find a reason to make a dramatic move down and change the trend, not just a pullback, but change the trend. So I have to sell the USDJPY based on the zigzag waves, 2 waves to downside, 2 waves upside, and the breakout. If the market gives this setup, I am in. If not, I'll be waiting patiently until cleaner setup will be given. What would be your thoughts about dollar yen? Share with us in the comment section. Final one for today, promise not taking more of your time, is the gold. After making all-time high, the gold is, let's say, the safe haven for the investors. Anything related to the inflation, the numbers are still high. The Fed still didn't cut. That's why the gold is still going up. Take a look what happens here on the longer term, the monthly chart. Is forming a massive potential divergence. I say potential because this peak is yet to complete. It did not complete yet. We don't have the second peak. So as long as that's the case, it's nothing more than potential. And on the weekly chart, we are forming— actually, it was formed here— overbought conditions. So we saw one bounce already. It was not enough to change the trend. I personally expected the gold. Let me just show it to you. I personally expected the gold to complete something like sorry, like that, and it kicked my sell this week. It hit my stop loss. Clearly, it was not a good read. But right now, there are two absolutely clean scenarios for the gold. Good numbers. Uh, showing the inflation is dropping down, reducing, and we get a setup of 3 waves to the downside, ABCD correction, bearish hidden divergence for trend continuation. So break below this trend line and the major volume profile zone gives the green light for the Sell. If that happens to be, I believe the gold is going to drop all the way to these daily and weekly dynamic supportive levels based on the volume profile. Scenario number 2, bad news, the inflation is still high. Gold is holding the broken resistance that becomes the support, retested, bounces back from here and goes all the way to all-time high. 2 clean plans. Let's see how the market triggers and which scenario the market triggers after the news. What would be your thoughts about the gold? What would you expect from this one to do? Let us know in the comment section below this video. That's pretty much it for today. Thank you very much for watching. As always, I hope you find your value in watching this video. Feel free to share it with anyone who you believe can benefit watching this video and can enjoy these trading opportunities. And remember, guys, patience pays off. The last couple of weeks for me personally were not the best weeks in 2024, but it's all part of statistics. You have to remember there are great days, there are bad days, there are amazing weeks and months, and There are bad weeks or not so good weeks. It's all part of trading. Keep in mind, wait for your setups. Don't force. Many traders think that if they click the button earlier, it will make the market move. This is a bad mistake. Avoid these mistakes. It happened to everyone. Be smarter. Avoid these mistakes. Wait for your setups. Waiting for setup does not guarantee your profit, but at least it guarantees your better starting point, better odds in the starting point, and for the long run, it has significant difference. So thank you for your time watching this video. Best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.