Forex Weekly Forecast | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD (XAUUSD) | 3 March 2025 - by Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community. And a quick reminder, you can continue and enjoy our amazing offers thanks to 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club private mentoring sessions, the indicators from the marketplace, the trading strategies, and more. All the offers you can find below this video in the description. The first pair I want to talk about is the euro-dollar. A quick follow-up on the previous week trading plan we shared, which you can of course watch in the previous weekly forecast. What we wanted to see, one of the scenarios we were talking about, is the rally, uh, the final rally on the EUR/USD before it basically reverses to the downside, which we were also talking about the 4-hour chart developing bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. Beautiful rally, beautiful divergence, and all the rest is history. The EUR/USD basically breaks below the rising supportive line, breaks below the recent lows, and the bearish momentum is here. What is next for this pair? Let's take a look on the numbers in the market trend snapshot. That's one of the features we have in Home Trader Club, of course. And what you can see here inside, that the EUR/USD is I call it a triple negative, meaning monthly, weekly, and 24 hours are all in the negative numbers, which means the bears are yet in full control. Keep in mind, this week we will have the cash rate decision in eurozone, then the non-farm payroll. Of course, it could be effective how it plays out. Let's go back to the chart. What do I expect to see from the euro-dollar? The way it is moving right now after these 3 waves, the EUR/USD is in some sort of a corrective movement. A retest or at least very close to the bottom of this corrective range is very likely and very reasonable. If we go to the 4-hour chart, once again we broke below the most recent trend line. We are making lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicators too, which basically the way I see that with pullbacks to happen, the euro dollar should go and clean the next key levels. We have this rising supportive line, rising trend line within the daily corrective range. We have this demand zone. Which is very likely to be retested. And we have this huge area here. You can see all the zone here of the spikes. Buyers, buyers, buyers right here, here, this area. The closer we get there, from there, I believe the euro-dollar could actually provide some interesting bounces. So for me, the euro-dollar is still bearish. Key levels for that to hold is of course the broken support, it becomes a resistance, and this, uh, supply zone that we can see here. We have this beautiful support and series, right, of lows that was broken. And not just broken, but take a look how it was broken. It's this major candle, major bearish candle. This is a very strong sign. So as long as these 2 Key levels hold, I do expect the euro to push that further down and lower. What do you think about this one? Let me know in the comments. The next one is the pound dollar. But before that, I want to remind you guys that during the week my team uploads fantastic trading opportunities for you in our blog. So visit. The blog of ours, the vladimirribakov.com. Follow the articles during the week. The team published a fantastic euro buy trade here, which you can again read and see the full analysis. And for example, the oil sale which we've had during the week, uh, and so much more. So follow our blog, read the articles Get the trading opportunities during the week, and so much more we have on the blog all for you. So visit VladimirBakov.com. Let's go to the numbers as we did with the euro dollar. Take a look what happens on the pound dollar. While this one is not a triple negative, double negative figures are in 24 hours and 7 days are in the negative zone, while the month is still above 1% positive, which very likely means. We are in a corrective move to the downside before buyers will try to take control again. And if we go to the chart, uh, quickly follow up on the previous week, what we were following, and again, you can watch that in the YouTube videos, of course. Our plan was to get this, uh, rally here and basically hunt for the Uh, pound-dollar sells expecting the retrace on the downside. So what happens with the pound-dollar? It is moving in some sort of a bullish channel at the moment. We cannot deny the sequence of higher highs, higher lows, even though the most recent highs are countered by bearish divergence. Bearish divergence in that case means very likely we will have the corrective move, which we do. So what is next with the pound-dollar? I personally think, at least for now— this could change during the week— but I personally think that the ideal scenario for the pound-dollar is that at the end of the drop, we should have final attempt for a rally before some bigger sell. So basically something like that. Okay, uh, drop, find the convenient bottom, rally, counter the peaks here on a daily chart, complete some bearish divergence, and from there sell. So this is my longer-term plan. However, the way I see it right now on the 4-hour chart, key zones we should be paying attention to. So we have this fantastic zone broken resistances, uh, previous demand area. Now it becomes a support zone. Of course, we have the rising supportive line. This, from my point of view, a key zone on the short term where I do expect the pound-dollar to basically stop. The way it behaves is very likely reminding something like that, uh, pretty much similar to what to what we could anticipate, uh, from the euro dollar. But this is the first zone, uh, which is from my point of view the key zone. The next area, if this one is broken, okay, would be slightly lower. And I, I will go here a little bit wider so you can see what I'm talking about. The first zone, once again, we have broken resistances become supports and even this demand area. The next zone is basically here. Demand, buyers, broken resistance becomes support, right? Demand, demand, demand, demand, lots of buyers. So either we're gonna, um, find some convenient bottom here before making the short-term rallies, or we're gonna bounce and continue in a deeper retrace where from, then I expect the pound-dollar to rally. So this is how I see the pound-dollar. What are your thoughts? Share with us in the comments. Next one for us is the gold. Last week we were talking about this setup here: rally, breakdown, lower lows on the chart, pullbacks, and a move down. This is actually also a setup we traded in Home Trader Club this week with the completion of the convergence. We are in basically in a condition where we break the low, making lower lows after the sequence of the bearish divergence followed from fake highs to lower lows. And this is our trigger zone inside this area. We are for sell. 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci are our target levels. 50 would be also ideal. So what happens with the gold if we plot the Fibonacci? 23.6 was cleaned perfectly from inside the trigger zone. 38.2 is now on the horizon and 50% would be the final target. What is next with the gold? Uh, so as I mentioned the last week, at least for now, I do not think that all-time high was created. I still believe after a retrace here we should see final peak, or basically something like another peak for divergence, right, to complete some bearish divergence on the weekly chart together with the daily chart. So for me, this would be an absolutely ideal scenario. I don't know to say if it's going to happen, but if it does, I'll be after much longer sells. Why do I bring that up? Because that for me means once this correction is over, I think we should be looking for the buys on the gold. And the way I see that right now, there are a couple of key levels. So this is the, I would say, the first key zone. Of course, we can bring back the Fibonacci here, which you can see it will fit in between the 38 to 50% Fibonacci. This is a first key zone. And why it is a key zone? Simply because it was a significant ranging area which was broken. Resistance became support. Then after a little break, pullback, that's where the next momentum was gained, right? So inner zone here, as you can see. Lots of inner area, right? Through the bigger range. This is why from my point of view it's a key zone. And what I would like to see on gold is something like that around this zone establishing some bullish divergence, which means lower loss on the chart, higher loss on the MACD, and then we'll be looking for the buys. This is the first key zone. As I mentioned, The next key level from my point of view is going to be slightly lower around this range. As you can see here, range, boom, before it was broken, broken support, resistance, sorry, becomes support and tons of buyers, buyers, buyers, buyers protecting all this area. So either from here or slightly lower with the completion of the bullish divergence for me Gold will flip and switch to buy. Your thoughts? Share with us in the comments. Final one is the dollar yen. So dollar yen, from my point of view and according to the numbers we see in the market trend snapshot, we are in a negative trend. The monthly is very negative, over three percent. Seven days around one percent. Twenty four hours was bullish, and which means. We are in correction before very likely back to the main trend. Why it is a main trend to the downside from my point of view? Bearish divergence on the monthly chart, bearish divergence on the weekly chart, and one corrective leg down is completed, lower lows on the chart with the indicator. So I do expect to see either second corrective leg down Or at least for a while it to move in a range, which from my point of view means sell the rallies is still a legit trading plan. However, on a short term, we are now cleaning this zone. Imagine how many stops were there, right? It cleaned the bottom beautifully, reversing here or rejecting the zone. Which probably means we are in corrective structure before the sell taking over again. On the 4-hour chart, at the end of these 2 waves, we saw a bullish divergence. Then one fake low, second fake low. The most recent trend line is broken to The upside and brings a beautiful rally. By the way, take a look on the classical opportunity we were talking about in our group chat in Home Trader Club by breaking this trend line, expecting to see corrective move and further continuation. And that's where the dollar-yen actually delivers 2 waves correction and the next portion of the rally. So what's next with this pair? I think that the rally is not over. I believe dollar yen should go inside this ranging area. So from my point of view, after these pullbacks, I expect the dollar yen to enter inside this zone. From there, very possibly provide the sells to the downside. So these are the key levels as I see them on the dollar yen. This inner zone, of course. We should likely enter there. Keep in mind that dollar-yen is still moving inside or within this bearish channel, and that's why the peak of or the top of these boundaries together with the range should be offering some key zone, very likely to bounce to the downside. In case it breaks it out, a duplication, uh, for that is going to be around this seller zone. Look how many sellers take the control here, all these spikes in the peak, broken support becomes a resistance, right? In case it breaks it through this zone, then pullbacks, rally towards this zone, and then sell from the duplication of the channel and the next resistance with a bigger view on the sell direction. That's it for this video. I hope you find value as always. If you do, please don't forget to hit this like button and please consider to subscribe to our channel if you are new to our channel. I want to take the opportunity and also to invite you to our Home Trader Club, our trading family. With the link below this video in the description, you will get your access there to our full courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities shared with you as all the other members in our dedicated group. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.