Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY - 2 December 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. So the first thing for today, the fundamental overview. What is coming on the next week? New month, new week. First week of a new month, that means non-farm payrolls is coming. There are some secondary important things on the way. On Monday, we have the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US, which is important to pay attention to. I would really recommend paying attention to the CPI in Switzerland, as this one could be a boost on all the Swiss pairs on the coming weeks if their inflation pressure really is going to improve, and maybe even beyond these numbers. We can be looking to go long on all the Swiss pairs like CAD franc, New Zealand franc, Aussie franc, and more. And the opposite around, of course, if the numbers surprise. We have the JOLTS job openings in the US on Tuesday, GDP in Australia Tuesday evening. We have the speech from Governor Bailey in Britain on Wednesday and the ADP pre-nonfarm payrolls report in the US on Wednesday together with the ISM Services PMI and a speech from Powell. And the main event, of course, is going to be the nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate in the US. The last one shrinked, as you remember here. To 12,000. Um, this number is dramatical, and it will get more dramatical only if this is— if this will become more than one-time thing. Uh, then if the— right now we are expected to go back to 200, um, numbers, the normal numbers. But if it— this one shrinks again, this is going to be very, very, um, crucial to the market and to the coming Federal Reserve decision about the rates. They don't have much room for aggressive cuts as they originally, uh, wanted to, to, to go with, uh, and these, these numbers could be crucial. So the first pair for today, the euro-dollar. A quick follow-up on our last week discussion. We were expecting the euro-dollar to create a bottom around here I, as I said last week, I would not be surprised if we will see the price flirting around this zone but eventually making the rally. As you can see, there was no flirt around the zone, but the zone here did hold and gapped up. And that's a pretty significant rally here. So let's take a look what happens with the euro-dollar and what is expected next. So I don't think that this is over, to be honest. We got a beautiful bounce of this support zone and demand zone and the 105 round number, psychological number. And as you remember, we discussed last week about the Bollinger Band duplication level. This is our custom-made Bollinger Band. As we are bouncing off the second Measured Bollinger Band duplication. Phenomenal zone, and usually with all the other conditions, of course, we see the market reacting from this zone. That's why we see the market attempting to go back to the opposite Bollinger Band, and that could that could happen. That should happen. But I don't think this is over. I believe that the euro dollar is. Right now in a very strong bearish momentum, and for the longer run, I would be looking to sell the rallies. What is important to pay attention to? Let's draw this line so you can see that on the lower time frame, this is our broken support line now becomes a dynamic resistance. And if we go to the four-hour chart, keep in mind this line, of course, and on the four-hour chart. Here is what I would be looking at. This is a key high from the 4-hour chart. Why it's important? Because if we mark these 2 lows, this is where the divergence was completed. Lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the indicator gave us a bullish divergence. This is the most recent high of in between this the lows of the divergence. So once we got above this area. I believe pullbacks are welcome, of course, but these pullbacks should be used and very likely will attempt to create some sort of a final rally or some sort of, I would say, attempt to go and complete. We have also dynamic resistance here right now. This will become a key zone, a key resistance zone once we complete this sort of. Rally towards this area, I would expect to see the EUR/USD completing condition of bearish divergence. So higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD, and from there actually I would be after sells. So on the short term, yes, this pressure of the EUR/USD is— the bullish pressure on the EUR/USD on the short term is more than welcome and very likely is here. So short-term buy the dips could be definitely a plan. It could also go into some sort of a range For a while before any sort of continuation. But again, buy the dips on the short term could be very nice opportunity. On the longer run, the closer we get there, the stronger the sell pressure would become too on this pair. And if we take a look on the numbers on the euro dollar, so again, we are more than 2% negative on the last month. The 7 days is now flat. The last 24 hours becomes a little positive. That means we are in a longer bearish pressure but in a shorter-term bullish correction. Numbers absolutely line up with the longer-term case here, and that's my view on the EUR/USD. What do you think about this one? Feel free to share with us in the comments. The next instrument for today, the GBP/USD. So a quick follow-up on our discussion from last week, we were expecting to see this bottom Creating and holding for the pound dollar and rally to take place. I, as I said last week, I would not be surprised if we get one more fake low here, but eventually we should see the pound dollar making the rallies, and that's what we experienced this week. So beautiful gap at the beginning of the week closed holds right away. Then we got the break above the last high, break above the Most recent falling trend line, and right now the pound dollar is making a sequence of higher highs, higher lows. Similar to the euro dollar, I whoa that's a lot of lines here. Let's remove that. Similar to the euro dollar, I do not think that this is a done deal for the sell, at least for now. I believe there is more to come. So at end of the rallies, I would be definitely looking to go for this. Sell for the longer run. However, on the short run, with the way it forms right now, I would expect the pound-dollar to continue its momentum. So what happened here is similar to the euro we saw before. We got the pair completing a bullish divergence— lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the indicators— and gave us a beautiful bullish divergence. The last high in between divergence is now broken. Usually this is a good sign that we are entering a corrective momentum. So I do believe the pound-dollar should do something like that, similar to the euro. We have some key zone here, and this area, uh, bounces towards this zone could open the door for further rally. I do expect the pound-dollar to rally back to this volume zone. You can see a lot of buyers and sellers here. Also, if we take a look here on this volume profile zone, you can see lots of transactions there. Tons of money is here. Very likely the pound will try to push towards this zone. We also have here the astronomical, I would say, supply zone. And if we can get closer to that, I, I'm not sure we will because there is also a peak zone here which we need to pay attention to. But the closer we get to this area, I would be looking here to see a bearish hidden divergence— lower highs on the chart, higher highs on the MACD histogram— and from there I will be looking to go for a sell. So short term, again similar to the EUR/USD and other anti-dollar expected moves, I expect the GBP/USD to deliver something like that, where from we would be after that going For the sell. In terms of numbers, that is pretty much similar to what we saw on the euro. Negative one month for more than two percent. The last seven days became positive and twenty-four hours positive, which means we are in a corrective movement to the upside against stronger bearish pressure from the higher time frame. So again, numbers line up perfectly. With the charts. Buy the dips on the short term, sell the rallies on the longer term. That's the plan for the pound-dollar. The final one for today, the dollar-yen. A quick follow-up on our discussion about a couple of weeks ago. We were expecting to see the dollar-yen making this push to the downside, and here we are today with a beautiful drop, more than 500 points since On the last week, I received tons of messages. Vlad, what do you think will happen? Where is the bottom for the dollar yen? So while the people were eagerly waiting for the top to be created, now everyone is like panicking. Where is the bottom? So I want to remind you that on the longer term, my expectations from the dollar yen did not change. I do expect to see either a BCD correction here for a long run. Or at least some ranging movement. So for me, it is still bearish for the long run and sell the rallies is still the plan. With that in mind, I would suggest to pay attention to some key levels. The last broken resistance now acts as support. We have a volume profile zone here and here. It's also another support area here. So we are in the first zone, second zone, and third key zone, which is also demand area. We— that means we are going to see the dollar-yen fighting around these levels. On the 4-hour chart, we already see the preparation for that. How? By making a ride on the lower Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles. Currently, there is no divergence on the moving average of the MACD. From my point of view, that means sell the rallies. But as soon as we get that done and the divergence completes here, again, I will be paying attention to the levels we just discussed about on a daily chart. The closer we get there, bullish divergence. Pay attention to the RSI, which is already flirting around over Salt conditions, this could become a great zone for the short-term retraces. So we get here, right? We expect to see some divergence taking place. The daily broken resistances behave as support. More than 20 candles right on the lower Bollinger Band that builds up the pressure for the pair to go up. So that's what I would pretty much expect to sell the rallies until the this divergence completes, then buy these bottoms for a correction and then sell the rallies for the longer term. In terms of numbers, the way I see that— let's take a look, here we go— we are in a very negative environment right now which supports the sell the rallies plan. More than 2% on the monthly chart, more than 3% negative on the 7 days, more than 1% the last 24 hours. Very, very negative momentum. And yet, remember, I always repeat that in my videos, that the further we go beyond the average price change, the stronger the pressure that we will see of the price to correct itself, like it happened with the euro and the pound in the last— in the recent week. It was similar. It was very negative on the seven days and the months and twenty-four hours, and then the correction took place. Similar happened with the dollar yen. That's why I say get ready from the key levels mentioned to look for the reversals to the upside. So that's my view on the dollar yen. That would be it for this video. Thank you very much for watching. As always, I really hope you find value. Uh, in these opportunities and in this analysis. Uh, if you do, please don't forget to hit the like button. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below. I also want to invite you to our Home Trader Club, our trading family, where you get your access to our full comprehensive complete trading courses for beginners, for advanced, comprehensive complete media zone, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities. access to the community, and so much more. Join our family, the link is in the description. Thanks for watching once again, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now.