Forex Weekly Forecast | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD | 20 November 2023 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's video, I have very interesting opportunities that will be the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar CAD, dollar yen. Ready? Let's begin. But before I continue, I would like to take the opportunity and to thank Eightka Broker for supporting me. My channel, my community, and you can still enjoy the special offers we have thanks to Oetker Broker with the link below this video in the description. So the first pair I want to talk about would be the EUR/USD. Quick observation on the market trend snapshot and the pure mathematical number of the EUR/USD. That's one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. Teaches us that we have absolutely bullish momentum, but it's shrinking from above 3% in one month's change to slightly below than 2% in the last seven days and less than 1%, close to half percent on the last 24 hours. The numbers are decreasing, which means the buyers are slowly and. Slightly are losing their grip over the pair. So in one of the recent weekly forecasts I shared with you, uh, here on the channel, we were talking about buy these dips right here due to the way it was forming its price structure. We wanted to see the pullback after retest of the, uh, broken range and get the rally towards the important Fibonacci level and the daily supplies. The last several days I published an update where I showed you that right now in between the 52.618, what I would expect is basically this sort of price movement before anything else would be decided by the market. The price so far on the last several days follows this structure. So let's take a look what's next. So if we go back to the daily chart, we can clearly see that after the riding on the lower part of the Bollinger Band, the euro reacted massively to the upside. Which brings here the question, up to where could it happen? Um, so the last time it happened was here in May and June 2023, where the rally took place in couple of big waves. And there is a great chance that this is what will happen right now. So the way I see that this rally is close to its, I would say, finish, at least on the current wave, and there are several very important zones where it could happen from. First of all, this swing high and the spikes which create for us the classical supply area of the downtrend, the last place where major sellers took control. It is also next to the 61.8 Fibonacci. This is the last high of the most recent rally. All that happens with these major spikes where sellers indeed again took control. So there is a fantastic chance that the euro dollar will stop here. RSI on the daily chart is getting close to Overbought condition or anything in between the 70 to 80. Last time it happened was here, and believe it or not, the funny part—remember the Bollinger Bands I mentioned before? Same happened here with the two waves when the RSI almost reached the overbought conditions, and same might happen here actually. So the way I see that, if we go to the four-hour chart, here we are. The way I see that, we already saw the levels, right? I believe that this is where we should start to see the slowdown, probably fake highs, high-end pullbacks, high-end pullbacks pretty much instantly. And from there, as soon as this divergence completes, takes place, and the daily supply levels are rejected, I believe we are due correction. Let me know what do you think about the EUR/USD. Will it touch the 1.10 or will we see that dropping towards the 1.08, maybe 1.07 before that? Share your view in the comment section. So quick observation, the numbers inside the Markets Trends Snapshot in the members area of Home Trader Club teaches us that the number here are pretty much similar to the EUR/USD. Just smaller. The 1 month is slightly above 2%, 7 days less than 1.5%, and the 24 hours less than half percent change. Again, buyers are losing their grip. Now let's take a look on the chart, but a quick one before the charts. If you find value in this video and you enjoy the trading opportunities I share with you here in the channel, please make sure you hit this like button. If you are new to this channel, welcome to our community. Please consider to subscribe to the channel with the subscribe button below this video. Now, exactly like with the pound-dollar, the moment we've had the overriding conditions on the Bollinger Bands, we receive a major retrace. The question is up to where? So as the price tends to move in between the demand to the supply, let's try to put down these important levels. The most recent low of the uptrend was broken, which means its high is the zone here. The spikes— I marked the spike here— is high. That's the zone of supply, the most recent place where sellers were in control that pushed the price to the downside, to the level where it was broken eventually. And from this moment, let's take a look on important key resistances that could be in play. So we have this low where the trend flipped and this low creating for us a supportive zone, and that makes me believe the pound-dollar is heading to this very area before the market will decide what's coming next. And I believe from there we should see, at least on the short term, retraces. If we go to down to the 4-hour chart, you will see a pretty similar structure like the euro dollar does. This is where I believe we are heading to complete the 3-wave cycle, complete higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the MACD and bearish divergence conditions, and from there short-term sells. So for me, on the short term, GBPUSD should complete this final rally towards the key levels I just showed you on the daily chart Where from I would expect and anticipate to see a bearish correction to the downside. What are your thoughts over this pair? Let me know what's coming. First of all, 126, or it will cross slightly the 125 and pull back to below 124? Share with us your thoughts in the comment section. Next one on the line, dollar yen. I've been talking about this one several times already in the past weekly forecast, and as you remember, we were talking about these fake rallies before it will then create the conditions of the turnaround and make a big drop. So we start actually to see these conditions, right? Fake highs are created one after another under bearish divergence condition when the market is making higher highs but the indicators is screaming lower highs. And all that happens slightly next, slightly above it here, the previous weekly high, touching that, bouncing there, and it's preparing something major. Now why do I think this is going to be something major? Because if we go to the higher time frame, the Okay, I'll just show you today, not because I plan to trade for years, just want to show you what is building up here. Look at the Bollinger Bands here on the upper right on the monthly chart. Look what happened the last time it happened, the same conditions, how powerful major drop we've experienced. Now this time, unlike the previous one, we also are building here some major Bearish divergence conditions. So eventually this one is set to drop and drop massively. I don't know to predict when. I don't know what to predict what will cause it fundamentally speaking. But such conditions usually are one of the most powerful technical conditions for traders. If we go to the weekly chart, we have the same conditions. With an overriding on the upper Bollinger Band. Okay, last time it happened was here. Actually, it took slightly more time, which is unusual, but the drop took place big time. And right now, with the way that the price structure is happening, there is a great chance it is set to happen. So ideally, it should bring something like that and then a major crash. But sometimes it just does these conditions before the crash. So we do have the slowdown, we do have all the conditions set, and here is how I plan to actually go and trade this one. So the way it forms with the false breakout, fake highs created, this low is the key last low in play for me. If the price managed to go below this area and hold itself under this volume profile-based supportive weekly area, if the price goes there, for me, sell the rallies at least on the short term should be a great sign. If we mark several of the most recent trend lines, they will give us dynamic supportive zones, okay, down to where this price can actually go and drop. And, uh, let's go to the 4-hour chart. And on the 4-hour chart, I want to see waves forming. So this is the law of interest, and what I want to see, it's either 2 waves down with 2 waves correction and then the breakout, or 3 waves down, something like that, to make the complete low, then corrective structure, and major move to the downside. Okay, for me, the conditions are preparing themselves for a possible major correction. And as I was showing you in the last several weeks, be ready because once that happens, it can be very fast. Okay, and the recent moves we experienced in the last couple of days on USDJPY Show how fast that could happen once it actually takes place. So be ready; it might be coming sooner than we were initially anticipating. Let me know what do you think will happen next on dollar yen? Will that hold below the psychological 150 and drop down to 145 or lower? Or it was just a fake drop and 155 is coming next. Share with us in the comment section below this video. And the final one for this video would be the dollar CAD. On the dollar CAD, I still believe that we should see this triple cycle completing, which means final rally here until the major weekly divergence complete takes place, and then a move down will happen. So for that to complete, if we go to the daily chart, daily chart ideally. Should complete clean 3-wave structure, and that's what I would like to see. With that in mind, assuming the analysis is correct, I think that this structure should eventually bring to final rally before the drops, and that's how I plan to trade it. Going down to the 4-hour chart, there are 2 scenarios. Scenario number one and the classical one is a break of the range. As we have the spot already inside, we require the breakout. Okay, so if that that happens basically, then here is the scenario that would very likely be finalizing this cycle. Scenario number two is the completion of. These 2 deeper waves back to one of the next supportive levels where the market should create lower lows on the chart versus higher lows on the MACD and complete the conditions for bullish divergence. If that happens, that should be considered as a wonderful buy opportunity towards the mentioned level to complete the weekly cycle. What are your thoughts of dollar CAD? Let me know in the comment section below this video. And I would like to thank you for watching and thank you for your time. I hope you find value in this video. Don't forget to hit this like button if you do, and please subscribe if you are new to this channel with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Where you will get your access to our full trading courses for beginners, for advanced, access to our comprehensive media zone, to our trading tools, the community, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, thanks for your time. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.