Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPNZD - 9 December 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. As always, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community and to continuously enjoy our amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club. Up to one full year, all the trading systems, all the indicators from the marketplace, private mentoring sessions, and all the other offers. Please refer to the link below this video in the description. This will be a busy fundamental week. Let's take a look where our main focus has to go. It starts with Monday night New York time cash rate in Australia. They expect to hold this time. However, they might actually surprise. So it's very important to pay attention to this one. We have CPI in the US where I can see according to the expectations, we should not see any easings on the ongoing inflation pressure. That is significant because last Friday we have non-farm payrolls which strong— which show strong job market, and that together could put more pressure on the Fed with all its, uh, expected rate cuts. Um, and that is definitely significant one to pay attention to. We have the cash rate in Canada where they expect to cut another half percent. Will they be able to do so? There are some doubts there. Some rumors say that Probably not, but if they do, I believe the dollar CAD could make the final push as it is making this week. We have the job market in Australia. We have the cash rate in Switzerland where they expected to cut 25 points. We have on Thursday also rates in Eurozone where they expected to cut. Down to 3.15, from 3.40 down to 3.15, uh, 25 points. Uh, the PPI, another important inflationary, uh, data in the US, the conference, it's going to be massive, uh, day Thursday. And of course the GDP in Britain on Friday. Pay attention to these data as it could affect all the way and the waves how the instruments develop. Now let's talk on the charts. So our first one, EUR/USD, a quick follow-up on our discussion last week. We were talking about completing this rally and actually going for the sell. So the biggest question now Is this rally over? So technically speaking, it has all the reasons to do so, right? We have a strong resistance and supply zone. There is, if we increase the MACD a little bit, you will see that there is a bearish pressure on the histogram that starts to build up there, but no moving average divergence between the most recent high here. So that is by itself a sign that maybe after all the euro is not ready yet for its bearish move down. And that's pretty much where it's, um, what we will need to pay attention to. The pullback is happening right at this point as expected, but the question is, are we at the level where the euro is going to make the move down I personally have my doubts, at least at the moment. So what I want to see here— first of all, we have the dynamic resistance line, but also we can find here an opportunity for a bearish hidden divergence where the market actually makes the lower highs but the indicator will make the higher highs, indicating that the sell is coming next. So what to pay attention to on the EUR/USD? We have this major trend line broken to the downside. We have this zone is currently retested. The next resistance level is slightly higher, closer to 106.50, 107. The next one is around the 107.70, and all these numbers, all this zone is a significant zone for the euro before the next sells will take place. So the bottom line here Yes, the euro is expected to go for the cut. No, the dollar is— the Federal Reserve is not expected to go with aggressive cuts as the others do. And there, that's why I believe any further rally on the euro-dollar, if happens, should be an opportunity for a sell. I am not certain that currently this Scenario is already a sell. We might see the euro making final push or attempting to push it slightly higher, but from there I would be looking for the sell, which also means on the short term, with the way it structures, there is a probability that the euro dollar will try to make a final run before it actually turns. To the downside again. So, um, the way it could actually work here, we might see these pullbacks on the short term, especially as long as that demand zone will hold and this volume profile zone will hold. And from there, actually, the euro to try and to go further. We also have the falling trendline here, right, which could be retested before sellers take control and push it to the downside. Keep in mind, this is a very tricky waves at the moment. The market, the way that the waves are formed for now, shows that the market is ready for a rally up to the next level and also for further bearish continuation with the longer-term trend as we see. And I want to remind you, with according to the weekly chart We're still on the bearish side, right? So sell these rallies will still be the plan here, and that would be should be on the safer zone. So pay attention to that. By the way, if we take a look on the market trend snapshot, like we see the numbers where we stand. The euro dollar, as you can see, the monthly is still three percent minus negative. The last week was in the corrective zone. 24 hours is pretty much flat, which usually these numbers indicate that the correction is in play before we join the bigger trend. And the bigger trend, as you can see according to the monthly chart, is negative. Therefore, sell the rallies is the major plan, while on the short term, buy the dips could still provide some interesting moves. The next one is the pound dollar. And if we saw that the euro is confusing, the pound isn't getting better. What do we have here on the weekly chart is a bearish divergence, and therefore the anticipation for sell the rallies, or very likely to assume the pound-dollar is going for a corrective move of ABCD, or at least some sort of range for the longer run. We saw based on the weekly chart it is sell the rallies. If we take a look on the daily chart, so our expectation basically a quick follow-up on what we discussed last week. Yeah, what we wanted to see on the pound dollar is another push to the upside and from there look for the sales. So the pound dollar actually made nice bearish divergence here unlike the euro dollar. Which means a push down is very welcome. The question is, is it ready for another move down already based on the weekly and the daily? And that's where the question— it's a big question, and that's where the market currently has 2 opposite signs. So let's take a look what do we have. According to the weekly, we already understand that this is a sell the rallies. The question is, are we ready for these rallies? So what we have here, we have a beautiful supply zone here which is retested. We have a beautiful inverted candle here, and this by itself should be a good sign for a sell, especially when we have a hidden divergence building up, MACD yet to tick to the downside, it was not completed, and we understand 1+ 1 usually equals 2. should be a good sign, right? However, the contradicting sign to that is that the 4-hour chart also completed some 3 waves here, which many times could bring some correction movement— corrected movement before another attempt to rally, and then only then join the bigger trend. And that's the 2 options I want to prepare the ground for. First of all, as long as this peak holds, right, we could see the pound-dollar actually trying to make this push to the downside. But what could happen here is we might get this pullback, and if— and I will repeat— if the demand levels we have here— we have the demand zone here, demand zone here where the buyers eventually took control from We might see the pound dollar trying to make another push to the upside on the shorter term, back to this bigger ranging zone, bigger money zone, and from there deliver to the downside. Okay, so that's pretty much what I see, the way I see it on the pound dollar. And that's the way I would be looking to trade it. Once again, keep in mind that all the rates, all the data that will be published this week could directly affect all the technical view, because if the numbers really go different from what the anticipation, the expectations are, the chart could actually react more volatile way, especially before the end of the year, yeah, and from there provide further opportunities in one of the directions we discussed. So long-term sell the rallies wasn't remains the plan. Short-term you could still see buy these dips pretty much similar to the euro dollar and the pound dollar. Here we go. Also on the monthly chart, more than 2% negative. 7 days we are in the corrective structure, over 1%. The last 24 hours pretty much flat, which is similar to the scenario we saw on the euro dollar, right? Similar to what we saw on the euro dollar. Bigger trend is bearish, at least according to the price change in the numbers, and shorter term is in correction, which means Look for the opportunities to join back to the main trend. Next one is the dollar yen, and a quick follow-up on what we discussed last week. We expected to see a bullish divergence forming here, and the dollar yen making this push to the upside. The plan remains similar without any change. What we want, what we expect here. According to the higher time frame, the expectations that we should see the dollar yen pushing further down or at least going inside this corrective structure. So sell the rallies is the plan according to the longer term. According to the daily chart, we did have bearish divergence here when the market was making the higher highs, but the MACD was making lower highs. Then we flip and make lower lows on the chart, lower lows on the indicator, that is a bearish sign. So what we want here is sell the rallies. Couple of key levels we will want to see holding. All this area is strong broken support, becomes a resistance. So as long as it holds, we might see the dollar-yen making some correction here Right? And then a sell. And the second key zone is basically the next important highs here, here, here, all this volume zone, right? As long as these 2 key levels will sell, sell the rallies would be the plan here. As simple as that. Once again, pay attention to the CPI and the PPI. They could have the direct impact on it. Dollar yen in terms of numbers all negative higher time frame, mid time frame and shorter time frame. That means the bearish trend, the bearish pressure is here. Look on the pullbacks to join the sellers straightforward. The final one for today, a pair I don't analyze much, but we did discuss about this one on one of the short videos I upload for you during the week. You can find it here on the right top corner, this short video, or you can find it in the channel, of course, where we are after buy the dips. So the way it looks, I expect the price to go and to look, look at the beautiful wedge it's forming. Look at the beautiful movement it is making here. I do expect to see this peak taking place before we will see the trend changes. So the bullish momentum is there on the weekly chart. It's all about a bullish trend. If we take a look on the price, take a look on the channel here with this peak as I would say extension of the channel. This is the key zone, and I believe pound New Zealand has all the strength it needs. To make this final rally closer to this area before it changes the trend. So the way I believe this pair is going is bullish. Buy the dips becomes the plan here. We do have the structure, we want to see the pullbacks, and we will be expecting to see further continuation upside with this ongoing momentum. So for me, buy the dips on pound New Zealand. Let's take a look on the numbers we, uh, we have on this pair in the members area of Home Trader Club. 1 month is very positive, 7 days over 1% change positive, 24 hours positive. It's a bullish trend. Buy the dips to join this trend. That would be it for this video. Thanks for watching. I want to take the opportunity and to invite you to Home Trader Club where you will get your access to all of our trading courses, comprehensive videos on real-time trading education with real-time trading opportunities, our community, and so much more. Join the family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now.