Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold using volume-profile zones and technical indicators. He expects bounces in euro and pound pairs after pullbacks, a rally then decline in yen, and gold overbought with 70% probability of a range-bound selloff. US-China tariff talks could support the dollar.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before the charts, as always, big thanks and thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, all our trading systems, all our trading tools in the marketplace, and private mentoring session, please refer to the link below this video in the description. EUR/USD, our first one this week, uh, and let's take a look what do we have here. Quick follow-up on the last weekly forecast. Our plan was to see this rally taking place, and from there we expected to see the retraces begin. So the biggest question, what is next as the bounce happens as we expected? So the way I see that, euro dollar currently is in a corrective mode until it will find some comfortable area, and from there we'll try to bounce to the upside very likely. The way I see that, key levels are of course the broken resistance that become a supportive area, but also this zone here. Okay, why? So first of all, we have this very, very, very strong profile zone based couple of areas here and here. Uh, this is our KTLI indicator. Of course, this is based on volume profile. We can see there are a lot of balance area here, which means buyers and sellers had a lot of interaction in these areas. So as long as these levels hold, I believe they could be great dynamic supportive areas and will try to bounce the euro to the upside. On a shorter term, the way it looks right now, the euro dollar is in a corrective structure. So it will be either ABCD correction here, ideally again back to this area as we discussed, or some longer range where it will just move inside that for some, for some time. We have some dynamic supportive area as well, so it make absolute sense if the euro will now be in the corrective phase. On the shorter term, even shorter than we discussed, the euro is making some range here. We can see that trying to break through, and if it does after pullbacks, very likely to see the continuation. Also, if we go to the daily chart, I want to remind you, if we use our Bollinger Band So right now, from the breakout, look where the bounce happens. Okay, we are seeing the bounce on the Bollinger Band duplication number 2. From this area, very, very likely what happens, the euro is retesting at least the middle Bollinger Band, and in many, many cases the opposite Bollinger Band. Therefore, the short-term bearish pressure. Add to that the fundamental thing that right now Trump is looking to Stabilize the markets with claiming the agreement with China is is coming, or at least the numbers, the tariffs would be smaller than they are. And of course, it boosts up the market and also brings some traders back to the U.S. dollar. And that's what I see the euro dollar. How do you see this one? Let me know in the comments. Our next one, the pound. Dollar and the follow-up on our last week discussion. We expected to see the bounce happening from this zone and from there longer-term rallies. Is it over? So I don't think the pound finished its corrective moment, pretty much similar to the euro-dollar after making this bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart. In most cases what happens After that is the pound making the pair, right? Making a corrective structure, which is ABCD correction in two waves or some range for some time before the continuation to the upside. And this is similar to what happened or what we saw on the euro dollar. I believe we are still in the corrective mode. There are a couple of very important volume profile based zone here. There is also, as you can see, based on our KTLI indicator. Very strong monthly and weekly level here. So the closer we get there, the stronger the pressure then it should be on the bullish direction. Meanwhile, on the short term, pretty much similar to what the euro did, uh, we do have some range here. Break below that could open the doors for the pound-dollar to make this further move down before the next rallies take place. So once again, I do expect to see either ABCD on the 4-hour chart or some range here for some time before the rallies take place and push the price to the upside again. Next one, USDJPY, follow-up on our last week discussion. Our plan was to see here around this zone bounces to the upside before it will manage to create the peak and then start its next move to the downside. So as we can see, the bounce does happen, uh, and it happens very nicely. The biggest question is what's next. So my next plan did not change. I still expect to see a bearish continuation. I'm just not quite sure that the corrective movement is over. I believe There is a little bit more here. We have broken support that becomes resistance. We have this high access supply. This ranging zone here is strong, and I believe it should be retested, or at least we should see the dollar yen moving in some range here before the next push to the downside. Therefore, the plan would would be the same on a shorter term after this rally. I would be look. Looking for retraces and then one more push to the upside. Sorry, click the wrong button. Uh, we have couple of very strong zones here. These lows act as demand area. We also have this volume profile based balance zone, as you can see, 4-hour and daily chart. So as long as they hold, I would be looking, uh, for the buy setups there on the shorter term. And after that, as, as explained would be after longer-term sells. So for me, this is the trading plan on the dollar-yen. What do you think about this one? Let me know in the comments. And the final one, the gold. Our plan from the last week, we expected to see the peak there before the drop happens. As we can see, gold delivers right to the zone we wanted to see that. So the question is, what is next? So I do not think the gold All-time high was and will hold for now. But the overbought conditions we had from the monthly chart, clear overbought with RSI over 80, clear overbought conditions with RSI over 80 as well on the weekly chart. If we take a look on the Bollinger Bands here, one second, yeah, let me just measure that. We are now from the most recent close here on the Bollinger, we are now bouncing off the second Bollinger Band duplication. Zone, phenomenal area and technical conditions. And the way I see that on the lower time frames, on a daily chart, again we bounce off overbought conditions. And, uh, the way I see that, the gold is now on some corrective movement. So there are a couple of scenarios I see there on the gold. The first one, the ideal one, we see the gold making some range here and make another push to the downside, ideally towards this inner range or the broken resistance that becomes support, or of course back to the dynamic supportive area. The tricky here condition could be if gold develops here some triple highs, 3 higher highs, higher lows, and then tries to make the, the drop bounces from the lows and then make final high. I would give 70% chance to the first scenario to follow and look for the sell setups according, and only like 30% chance for this scenario to happen. Uh, if that's the price action it follows, then I would be looking for the bearish divergence to form on the 4-hour chart afterwards, and from there a big Sell. So that's how I plan to trade the gold this week, and you let me know in the comments. That's it for this video and for this week. I hope you found value in the trading opportunities. 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