Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD - 18 November 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community and to enjoy all the amazing special offers we have together with 8K Broker. Please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first pair for today would be the EUR/USD. By the way, if you hear some noise out of the office, that's the kids playing. They have a day off from school today, so they have fun with their kids. So I apologize if you hear the noise. So a quick follow-up on what we discussed on the last week, on the last several weeks. Our expectations from the euro-dollar were to continue its push down until it reaches the key demand level, which it did. This is surrounding the level of 105, 104. So we are there right now. The question, what happens next with the euro-dollar? At the moment, there are zero signs against Which means very likely we will experience some bounces, but very likely or very unlikely that these would be signs that will actually change the trend. The pullbacks are welcome here, but the way I see that the move down. Is not yet done. And if we take a look what starts to happen here with the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, it breaks below and closes below with a massive candle. Usually it is a sign there is more coming. So on the short, um, uh, term, let's say, let's take a look at the numbers first of all in terms of percentage change. That's what we— let's take a look on the market trend snapshot. We have 1 month close to 3% change, the last 7 days over 1% change. That's very serious numbers. And yet these numbers love at some point to— the further it goes away of the zero, the closer it will get to zero once the pressure increases. And that's what happens right now on the EUR/USD. So the way I see that, the levels we saw, the 105, 104 zone-ish, we should be able to see the euro-dollar forming some reversal signs here before a very likely trend continuation. There are a couple of scenarios I see here. Scenario 1, which would be the ideal, we go to make one more low, complete a beautiful bullish divergence, and then we start to see the euro-dollar making the reversal. Scenario 2 is that we get some smaller waves here, make it pushing towards these resistances, right? Resistance and resistance or supply levels, or towards the falling trend line, which is closer to the dynamic 200 moving average. And from there, we will be looking For a sell or further continuation to the downside. For me, this is not a done deal from the European bears or the dollar bulls, and there are many reasons for that, of course. But we have Trump being elected, which is a very pro-dollar. We have the CPI and the PPI, which are persistent. The data, as the Federal Reserve said this week, is not supporting further rush to cut the rates, and therefore I am very doubtful that this trend is over. I think there is more to come to the downside. So that's the plan for the euro dollar. Let me know what do you think about this one. And let's quickly take a look at the fundamental outlook before we continue to the next pair. We have busy week ahead of us. We have a speech from Governor Ueda in Japan this weekend, and the way it looks right now, the rumors or speculations say that there is a good chance the Japanese central bank will be forced to intervene as the yen was simply losing big value, big piece of value, or even go and hike the rates. So that's a very interesting thing to pay attention to. Of course, we have the G20 meeting on Monday, and then we have the monetary policy report in Britain that's happened, uh, of course, uh, in On Tuesday, we have the CPI monthly and annual, the median and trimmed in Canada, also very important one. We have the CPI in Britain, which is expected to hike again. That could put some interesting bullish pressure on the pound, at least on the short term. Another speech from Oda on Wednesday. Then we have unemployment claims in the US. And Friday, very, very, very busy fundamental news days. Retail sales in Britain, flash manufacturing and services, flash services in the eurozone. We have it also in UK. We have it also in the US. And of course, the retail sales in Canada. Busy day ahead of us on Friday. So that's the fundamental view. Let's take a look on the next pair. That would be pound dollar. Following our analysis from the recent weeks, we wanted the pound dollar to reach this key zone, and voilà! We are here now. Rising supportive line is here. Huge volume profile is here. Strong demand levels ahead of us. One, two, three strong strong strong strong strong zone ahead of us, and we are not too far from some oversold conditions on the daily chart. If we take a look on the Bollinger Bands and we plot the Bollinger Band indicator on the recent breakout, we will figure out that we have a dup. Level here as well. Another strong reason why it is very likely coming to some potential short-term reversal zone. But exactly as the EUR/USD scenario, I do not think the GBP/USD is a done deal. And after short-term pullbacks, which are very welcome and likely to take place, I do expect the pound-dollar to make another move to the downside. On the short term, as we saw, we have some key levels, and as you can see here, we have more than 20 candles right on the lower Bollinger Band. Add to that the fact we have some bullish divergence developing here on The four-hour chart, and what we get is the opportunity that during this week, very possibly, we will start to see the buyers rejecting the sellers. So new lows are very likely to create a bounce to the upside. But as I mentioned before, I do not expect the pound dollar to you know finish this drop. I do expect pullbacks and then very likely further continuation down. Pay attention to the possible scenario where we will get a bearish hidden divergence, lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the MACD, and you will get— then we also have here broken support that becomes a resistance and dynamic resistance, uh, trend line. We have the 200 moving average with the 50 moving average key meeting points on that could provide further Move to the downside. So that's my view on the pound dollar in terms of the numbers. As we saw on the euro, we are very negative there with the seven days and the monthly stays on a very negative zone. The way I see that the pound dollar is is bearish and should continue its pressure to. The downside. The next one is the dollar yen. Following our analysis couple of weeks ago, we wanted to see—it was actually on the four-hour chart. We discussed it there. So let me quickly go to the four-hour chart. This is what we were talking about: get another push and then break it down for further. Drop. So what happens with the dollar? I will start with saying pay attention what will be said on or by the governor from the Bank of Japan. If they actually say that they will do all it takes to control the price. expect a drop down. If they will remain under neutral view and say we will keep monitoring and hope for good, then all the technical part could simply be vanished. But on the technical side, we are on a huge supply zone. And I say huge because we have the supply zone here, we have all these volume profile levels, We have this zone which is holding. This is the peak where the sellers took the actual control from last time, and we have overriding more than 20 candles on the— let me just hide it for a moment— more than 20 candles on the upper Bollinger Band, which puts the pressure for some bearish move down. We have a bearish divergence everywhere on the indicators, which is preparing the ground for potential reversal signs. And on the 4-hour chart, we actually saw some very interesting conditions. From bearish divergence here, we start to see the price actually making higher highs on the chart and the MACD. However, and that's very important, The big scenario or the big divergence is still there, and the histogram divergence is also there. So the way I see that for the dollar yen, there are a couple of scenarios. The ideal one would be, of course, the break below this trend line, rising pullbacks, and then a beautiful sell continuation. And on the lower time frames, we might be actually looking for this. Waves to form themselves. Uh, 3 waves to the downside, corrective movement, and then the breakout and continuation down. And the final one for today would be the gold. We discussed about this one in the last week, and our plan was sell the rallies. Gold delivers big time. And I want to remind you, we are bouncing off critical, I would say, oversold— sorry, overbought conditions on the monthly and the weekly chart, while the histogram also makes its divergence. I do not think the all-time high was created, but I definitely think that on the short term, after this drop, we should be able to see some pullbacks. And then very likely further continuation down. We have this trend line and we have this trend line. The first one is yet to be reached. The closest one was broken. So I do expect some pullback soon to go and retest it and then continuation further. On the 4-hour chart, the ideal scenario would be if we get this drop down towards this inner zone, a demand zone. looking for a bullish divergence to complete and to begin the corrective movement to the upside before the sellers will take the control and push the price further down. So that's it for this video. I hope you find value in it. As always, if you do, don't forget to like, and if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to the full comprehensive complete trading courses, real-time training education, and trading opportunities, and of course the access to our community. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching, best to you and yours, and see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now.