In this weekly Forex forecast, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club provides a concise fundamental outlook for the coming week, highlighting key economic releases such as U.S. JOLTS, CPI data from Australia and Germany, U.S. GDP, Japanese rate hold, Canadian GDP, core PCE, and a disappointing non‑farm payroll. He discusses the implications for major central banks (Fed, RBA, BoE, BoJ) and the U.S. election, noting the Fed’s dilemma between sticky inflation and weakening labor market. Ribakov then delivers pair‑specific technical analyses and trading scenarios for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD, using support/resistance zones, trend lines, volume‑profile balances, Bollinger Bands, and market‑strength snapshots. Across all pairs he adopts a bearish bias, recommending selling rallies and targeting deeper corrections. The video concludes with promotional mentions of 8cap broker and the Home Trader Club membership, and a call to action for viewers to like, subscribe, and join the trading community.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks, thumbs up to 8cap broker for supporting our community and to enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8cap broker. Including the access to Home Trader Club, all the trading systems, the indicators, private mentoring sessions, the special short-term trading group, please refer to the link below this video in the description. Quick fundamental overview of what will happen this week and what is expected the next week. It started with Tuesday where the JOLTS job openings showed a decline on about half a million jobs than expected. Then we had the CPI in Australia, which is significantly improving and hints that we are moving to the right direction for another cut in Australia, very likely. The CPI in Germany was pretty strong, which surprised many. And then it goes all the way to the GDP in The U.S., which disappointed. Instead of three percent, it showed at two point eight percent. Then we had, of course, the Japanese bank hold the rates on quarter percent, and they don't really rush to hike further. And of course, we had a GDP in Canada, which disappoints big time, and then it. Came to the main event, I would say, where the core PCE price index in the US showed a 0.3%, but the non-farm payroll disappointed big time with a significant decline to only 12K jobs versus the 106K expected and revised 223K in the previous read. That's significant drop. And the way I see that, the pressure on the Fed to continue— the Fed is now in a not in the best position because the CPI is not improving as much as they wanted. Their core PCE index also not improving as they would like to see. On the other hand, the job market is weakening significantly. That's That's a serious headache for them. So what's coming this week? Of course, the elections in the US, cash rate in Australia where they are expected to hold this time with the main focus what will happen on the next trades and with the improving CPI numbers as we saw, probably they will go and or Cut this time, or hint that the next rate is coming. So we have the elections coming in the U.S. It's all about that on Tuesday, and then on Thursday we have the cash rate in Britain. And the biggest question there will be: Will the Central Bank of England be able to cut more? Than the expected 25 points? Big doubts about that. On the other hand, big chance for that. And of course, then the main event, that's the Federal Reserve cut, or the expected cut of the rates, that happens on Thursday, 2 PM. Don't miss. And again, what will the Fed say after that? It happens right after the elections. Lots of things are going to happen here. Expect the market to be unexpected somehow. Let's go to the charts. So the first pair I want to follow with this forecast would be the euro-dollar. So a quick follow-up to our last week discussion, we were covering one scenario where the euro-dollar is expected to make this corrective structure to the upside, which basically we can see the euro is doing that. It was not as deep as I was hoping for, as the ideal levels for the EUR/USD are going to be here, maybe even this zone. So the previously— the previous high which acted supply up to the previous support which now acts as resistance, that would be the ideal zone It could still be reached, by the way, in this round, something like that, before the continuation down. However, as I mentioned before, with the pressure that the Federal Reserve will be under, the not ideal conditions for more than 25 points cut, and the way I see that, the euro dollar is a sell and it has one of the 2 scenarios I would be following. Scenario number one, the ideal one, would be that the EUR/USD continues to expand inside this mini range and from there once it reaches these levels we discussed from the daily chart, the pigs go for the major sell. That would be an ideal scenario. The less preferable scenario would be that we break the range to the downside, go for the retest, and then make it— let's redraw that— and then break it down, come for a retest, and then push it down further, all the way that if we go to the weekly chart, you would see that Uh, the— this significant levels, next ones are right here. Okay, and we are talking about the 106 zone down to 1 below 105 zone. So for me, the EUR/USD is a sell for the longer run with ideal view that it will complete some deeper correction, something like that, clean the previous high here and then breaks it, break it down to push all the way lower. If it does not do that and if it doesn't regain the beginning of the week this bullish momentum, then it's simply best to step back, let it do the breakout here, come for a retest, and then further down to the next key levels. This or other way around, for the longer run I'm after sell the rallies on the short run. I would still want hopefully to see this final run here before the move down happens with a big question mark and doubt after the recent data that was published this week. In terms of numbers, let's take a look on the market strength snapshot. That's one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. On the EUR/USD numbers, we are clearly in a negative zone. With the monthly close to 3% negative, last 7 days more than 1% negative, and 24 hours also on a negative zone. It leaves no room for imagination. The sellers are here, and therefore sell the rallies in one of the formats I showed would be my trading plan. The next pair I want to cover would be the GBP/USD. So following our discussion or the idea we saw on the last weekly forecast, we prepared the possibility that the GBPUSD is going to do this corrective structure before it actually pushes down. So with all the zigzag during the week, since it was a lot of zigzags here, the GBPUSD managed to break that down and the question here is Is it able to continue down straight from here? We have the expected cut in Britain. We have the expected cut in the U.S. We have the elections. There are so many things this week which could affect that, of course. Regardless, I am under clean bearish view here. I expect the pound dollar with its bearish divergence to push down further, ideally though after some deeper correction here. Okay, so that's— let's prepare the ground for possible scenarios. Scenario number 1, if we go back to the daily chart, scenario number 1, as we cleaned this low already, the GBP/USD will make some deeper retrace back to broken support that become the resistance up to the last high which acts as supply, and from that zone massively bearish direction. On the other hand, we do have the GBP/USD breaking and holding below the most recent rising supportive line on a daily chart, and if it managed to hold there below and hold these peaks or the last broken support that now acts as resistance. As long as that's the case, GBPUSD could actually continue all the way lower. Down to where? We have this ongoing rising supportive line, we have this huge volume profile balance zone which is also expected to be retested eventually So with the pound-dollar, my view is similar to the euro-dollar. Sell the any rally here. So the ideal scenario once again is as long as it holds here and as long as it holds this broken support, it becomes resistance. We might see the pound pushing down all the way to the next levels. If it managed to go for a deeper correction, I would be again. Looking at this resistance maximum, this one, and from there go for the for the actual longer cells. So a lot a lot is on the line this week with the cash rate decisions, with the with the elections of course. Lots to be expect the unexpected. Let's call it this way, and I would not be surprised to see some stronger noise than usual. Maybe some zigzags here. So for me, the pound dollar is bearish in terms of numbers. The view here similar to the euro dollar. We are negative. On the one month, on the seven day, last twenty four hours pretty much flat. But the bears are here, so we are looking to join them. The next one, dollar yen. I will start now with the numbers because, as you can see, dollar yen is on a very bullish note. However, take a look what happens here. It's over 6%, close to 7% on the monthly rally. This is way beyond any average normal numbers. When these numbers lose the average by significant amount, as it happens, the pressure to return to normal numbers Which is between 1 to 2% usually, would be increased. So from my point of view, and I want to follow— if we go to the charts, I want to follow what we discussed in the last week— we would expect to see one high before the sales taking place. And that's exactly what I still expect from dollar-yen. We have, we have now on dollar-yen a significant— sorry, a significant zone of a supply here through these peaks here. Okay, last high acts as supply. This zone is a lot of sellers. Bollinger Bands also show, as you can see here, we are riding for more than 20 candles on the Bollinger Band, which is another significant sign here. The in terms of duplication, take a look what happens with the Bollinger Band since the moment we just move it since the moment of the breakout. Okay, this was the first here we are first candle in a line here after the full breakout happened. We are right. On the resistance zone, absolutely strong area. So the way I expect the dollar yen to work from here is one of the next scenarios. We did have a gap last week after the elections there and on lower house, and this zone still holds. So there are a couple scenarios which I would want to follow. Scenario number one, the ideal one. Let's say dollar yen to make final peak, complete another peak here, another resistance zone divergence, and then break this low. Okay, lower lows on the chart, lower lows on the histogram for full convergence, and then sell the rallies. Okay, not good ideal scenario. Scenario number two is we go and complete a break below this low. By making some sort of a zigzag. So we got the two waves down, looking for some range or ABCD correction here, breaking it to the downside, and we see the dollar yen pushing all the way down. We have already very interesting scenario of broken rising supportive line. The next one is here. So as the price is moving in between these lines, I would be expecting in one of the reversal scenarios I just showed a push down towards the next supportive line. So for me, I am after sell the rallies in one of the formats I showed on the USDJPY. And the final one for me, NZDUSD, a pair I don't cover often, but it definitely has some interesting Scenario here. So we are moving within this range with clean swings, clean waves in between the range boundaries. The way it looks that the pair is going to retest this zone. This is a very strong zone as we have there a huge demand area, massive support zone, and rising trend line. So the way I see that, there is a very good chance that the New Zealand dollar is going to push here, maybe even slightly below the next key zone. But as we are coming to this area, which is not too far from there, I would be expecting the New Zealand dollar to start and create the divergence, maybe even some oversold conditions on the daily chart, and from there be prepared for a significant rally. So what we have here on the New Zealand dollar on the 4-hour chart, it already begins the massive divergence developing. The divergence is there, levels are not yet fully aligned, which to me means the ideal scenario would be final drop down, ideally to retest the ongoing supportive line, complete this, the new low of the divergence together with the daily levels, and from there I am after big bullish view and expectations for a turnaround. That's pretty much it for this video. I hope you find value in this one, and if you did, please don't forget to hit this like button. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you get your access, full access, to our comprehensive complete trading courses for both beginners and advanced, comprehensive media zone, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities Access to our community and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. Be aware and stay aware and on guard with this coming trading week. It's going to be a very interesting one, probably with lots of volatility and a lot of noise, probably lots of opportunities. So stay tuned, watch the charts. And be ready to trade. Thanks for watching, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now. Bye.
