Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD - 9 September 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks, thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community and to enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker. Please refer to the link below this video. Let's begin with the fundamental aspect. The last week was busy with news, with one anticipation in mind that was the non-farm payroll report published this Friday, with the preparation for what's coming next week, and that will be the CPI in the US. All that happens a couple of weeks before the Federal Reserve will announce their decision and how will they cut, how much will they cut the rate. So the biggest question now in the market, and that's what makes the market sort of nervous, how big are the chances that the Federal Reserve would be able to cut 50%? Right now, right now the market anticipates this probability is around the 40-45%. The biggest question is what will the Fed do? 25 points and say more coming next, or they will go aggressively 50 points, maybe even beyond that, and surprise everyone and take them off. So the last week we got some very important news. It was it started with CPI in Switzerland, which went to zero on its numbers instead of zero one. Anticipation. The GDP in Australia was solid as expected. Canada cut the rate by 25 points again. The JOLTS job openings showed a slowdown. I would say even significant slowdown. It would be kind of like opening the doors for what comes next with the nonfarm payrolls this week. The ADP was another preparation that the job market slows down, and then we got the main portion that was the non-farm payroll with 148, 142K only. And anything below 200 considered to be a significant slowdown on the market. But the last month's read fixed to 89K, and instead of the 164K expectation, The reality is 142K, while the unemployment rate remains above the 4%, 4.2%. So with that in mind, by the way, I'm using of course Forex Factory to as the main calendar. It all leads us to the next week, the coming week, where we have the core CPI on the monthly rate and the CPI and the annual rate of the CPI, while the expectation that we should see the inflation pressure going to 2.6%, getting very close to the target of the Federal Reserve, the 2%. Any glitch to any of these sides could, uh, hint or could give some brighter light on what will be Federal Reserve abilities in terms of the Rate cut the following week after that. Then we have in Thursday a lot of also important news. We have the PPI in the U.S., of course, and the rate decision in Eurozone, where they are expected to go to 3.65%, which is another significant drop. But that's the main portion for the coming week. Now let's take a look on the charts. So the first pair for today would be the euro dollar. Let's take a look on the market trend snapshot. That's the one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. And take a look, the monthly is still over 1% positive, so the bullish momentum for the longer run is still there. However, the 7-day and the 24 days are in a corrective momentum here, so usually that hints that the correction is happening to join the longer trend unless again something changes. So last week we were talking about one of the scenarios we covered that the euro dollar will try to complete 2 waves here before further continuation up. So I want to bring back the logic of this analysis according to the Monthly, sorry, the weekly. Just go and do it. Fibonacci extension here. According to the weekly analysis, the euro dollar could go and complete its rally towards the 61.8 Fibonacci extension. This level is also next to the key high here and here, which behave as the supply zone. Now the good part here that the euro is holding above. This beautiful volume profile-based zone, balance zone. So as long as not the trend remains bullish, I do expect the euro dollar eventually to push further towards the 61.8. A lot will depend on how this news this week will actually play around, but right now here is what we see and here are the 2 scenarios we can follow on the euro dollar. The— on the weekly and the daily chart, we can see that after the break of this triangle, the euro gains the momentum. We can see sequence of higher highs, higher lows. Currently there are no signs again, so pullbacks should be signs for continuation. And if we take it to the 4-hour chart, the way that the 4-hour chart formed its structure on the last daily wave was making this sequence of higher highs, higher lows. Which usually followed by one of the next two scenarios: either ABCD before the continuation or a range, something like that, and then a continuation to the to the trend. So this is exactly the two scenarios I will be following this week. I expect the euro to complete here some sort of ABCD and continue. Or arrange and continue. And as long as we hold these key resistances level, which now behave as support, and this low, which is also below the key trading levels, as we see here, for me, the euro is still under the bullish view. What do you think about the euro? Where are we going from here? 112, 113, maybe beyond, or was that a peak and we are going to 108, then 105 from here? Let me know in the comments. The next one for today, the pound-dollar. But before that, I would like to ask your support and help. If you find value in this video, please hit this like button and a few words in the comment section would be fantastic help with all the way that YouTube algorithm works. And if you are new to our channel, welcome to our community. Please consider to subscribe With the subscribe button below this video. Thank you for your help. Let's continue. So the scenario as a follow-up, the scenario we were talking about the last week was buy these dips where we marked key levels here and here, and as long as they hold from there, we were after the bullish view. The pound dollar delivered its first portion of the rally, but now after the non-farm payrolls, it tend to the downside. The main reason for that is simple: the expectations that kind of were hurt from the ability of the Federal Reserve to actually cut the rates by more than 25%. So for the longer run, my view remains bullish. The reason is that, uh, the way I see that, it is pretty much similar to what we saw Here, uh, moment, like what we saw on the, on the euro dollar. So if we analyze the waves, the 61.8 Fibonacci extension on the weekly chart or higher, right next to these key highs which behave as the supplies, uh, so that according to that, the direction is bullish. The only little concern we have at the moment here is a developing divergence on the weekly chart. It's only a preparation for the potential change in the slowdown. Usually the daily chart should synchronize and line up together with the pound-dollar, and that's why for me the, um, the longer run, it's still bullish until the weekly and the daily together will complete the divergence before the turnaround. So buy the dips for me Wasn't remains the plan. The way it looks right now on the four-hour chart is pretty much similar to what we saw on the euro dollar after a few waves to the upside. It's very normal and logical if the pound will complete ABCD correction before the continuation or a range, and the range could be basically a similar scenario to what we saw in the euro, something like that. And then a break and continuation. So for me, the pound dollar is similar to the euro dollar. Buy these dips, either the ABCD or the range and breakout would be my trading plan. Keep in mind the news, as that should open the doors for cleaner odds. What will the Fed be able or not to do when it comes to the following rate decision the next week? So that's the pound dollar. What do you think? Did we just peak and we are going down to 125 from here, or will we eventually see the 134, 135 area on the top, maybe even 138? Let me know in the comments. Next one is the dollar yen, a follow-up on our plan from about, I think, 2, 3 weeks ago on one of the weekly forecasts. We were talking about sell these rallies. As we can see, dollar-yen delivers this thing exactly. Even the numbers here, uh, line up. By the way, take a look on the pound-dollar. I'm not sure I showed it before, but the pound-dollar is similar to the euro we saw before. Monthly is very positive while the 7 days and 24 hours are in negative. It usually means we are in correction that will attempt to join the higher time frame momentum. So that's the pound-dollar. And if we take a look on the dollar-yen, then you will see dollar-yen is negative in all the 3 time scales. Monthly is over 1% negative, so does the 7 days and the last 24 hours. Usually that means the bearish momentum is ongoing and should continue. So judging our plan from a couple of weeks ago, where we were talking about sell these rallies. I believe that USDJPY has no other path than go and complete the retest of this daily low, which is a supply area, or this weekly low, which we can see there. If we plot Fibonacci extension on these ongoing waves, we will figure out that the 61.8% is right there next to the weekly low. I believe dollar yen should eventually, maybe slowing down, but should eventually enter this zone. From there, very likely it will complete a bullish divergence and start its rally for between 500 to 1,000 pips to the upside. Meanwhile, on the shorter term, and as long as nothing changed here, I believe that every rally is yet, um, a sell. That's as simple and as straightforward as it can get. Once again though, pay attention to the numbers that will come this week. The CPI and the PPI should open the doors for what's coming in a week after that about the rates. Okay, what do you think about the dollar-yen? Let me know in the comments. The final one is gold. Now, while the gold is creating some serious overbought conditions on the monthly chart, which you can see every time it was there in the past— here, even here we got a small pullback, here we got some more significant pullback than the last time, and here at beginning of 2020, right? Every time it's the peak, it is creating the top. So this is on the monthly. Weekly chart is forming a divergence as well. So it's only question of time until gold starts its correction down. I believe there are 2 scenarios which we mainly should follow. Scenario number one, and that would be the ideal, if gold can make one more final rally to go and to complete this divergence, and then we can talk about sell this new peak. Uh, the other alternative scenario would be if the gold actually— it starts to create from the very peak a bottom, and now it moves inside. So this is the low, this is the peak. All this move since is inside. So one of the scenarios we could follow is the turn to a zigzag. Meaning a second wave down, the break of the— let's go to the daily chart for a moment and I'll draw some trend lines here so you can see what I refer to. First and second, right? So the first trend line from the daily chart, if the 4-hour chart completes zigzag, which means 2 waves down or 3 waves down through the daily trend line And comes as a retest of the 2 waves, that should open the doors for further continuation down towards the bigger trend line we saw on the daily chart. So these are exactly the 2 scenarios I would be following on the gold to go and to sell that. Is the time there already for a sell? I'm not sure. That's why I'm waiting for these specific setups in order to be able and execute this sell. So that's my view. What do you think about gold? Where are we heading from here? Let me know in the comments. So that's it for this video. I hope you found value in it. And of course, if you did, don't forget to like the video with the like button below. If you are new to this channel, please consider to subscribe, and I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our comprehensive, complete trading courses, media zone, real-time trading education opportunities, uh, the access to our community where you can enjoy all the communication, of course the real-time videos I publish with the real trades To follow real opportunities, you can follow. Join us. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for your time watching this video. Best to you and yours. Enjoy your weekend and good trading. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.