Forex Weekly Forecast | EURUSD, GOLD (XAUUSD), AUDNZD | 12 February 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we start, big thumbs up and thanks to 8K Broker for supporting this community and my channel. To enjoy all the special offers we have together with 8K Broker, including the access to all trading strategies, to the Home Trader Club up to 1 year, and private mentoring sessions, please refer to the link below this video in the description. So the very first pair I want to start with is the EUR/USD. So if you've been following our recent videos, the weekly forecast and the other updates I've had, we are bearish since the break of this ranging, I would say Pattern, even though it's hard to call it a pattern. And the biggest question now is the euro dollar is that over? So from my point of view and the way I see that, the answer to that is no. And I think the euro dollar is yet to go and to complete here a final push down. So before we try to understand how, why, up, down to where, let's figure out. The higher time frame, why at all is it bearish and what should be happening here. The way that the current rally structures and the fact it ended with the bearish moving average divergence usually brings, uh, 2 corrective waves to the downside before any possible continuation, or at least some sort of a range, which is a very possible scenario In that case, so if it is about to make the range, then it should try to finalize itself somewhere around this zone and then start to build a bullish structure. But if we go to the daily chart and we try to understand, okay, so where does the euro dollar actually stand? What we can see is that after the three higher highs, higher low structure we've had. Which ended with the bearish divergence when the market was making the higher highs but the indicator was making lower highs. That basically tells us that we are due to a bearish move, which indeed took place. And what happens now with the EUR/USD, that it is flirting with a key zone. We have from one side this balance, this Demand area, and on the previous scenario we have the weekly zone here, which also was retested right at that place. So all that creates some sort of a key zone, and if we remember the weekly potential range we were talking about, there is a very, very, very big probability that this area would. Be a final one for the current push down. So with that in mind, the EUR/USD should try to establish a bottom, right? But now let's go to the 4-hour chart and see, do we have any signs again? So what happens with the EUR/USD, as a matter of fact, we are moving in some sort of a bearish— it's not really a channel, but a bearish trending structure. We have a clear sequence of lower highs, lower lows, which at the moment does not have any ending signs, not in terms of divergence, not in terms of price structure, which makes me think that at the end of this corrective structure that currently is taking place, the euro should try to make one final move down. So something like That, and then with the same logic we started from the daily chart and the weekly chart. I believe the four-hour chart then will start to establish bullish divergence when the market was making lower highs, but indicator will start to make the higher lows. Sorry, lower lows versus higher lows. We should be then expecting the price to go up. So for me, at the moment. At the end of these two waves or some sort of a range, the euro dollar is due to bearish continuation. Sell the rallies is my trading plan. What do you expect from the euro dollar? Are we going to see the 106-105 zone being reached, or you think the bottom was already completed, created, and from here The door is open again to the upside. Let me know in the comment section below this video. Next one is going to be gold, and before we continue, I would like to take a moment and to ask your support. If you find value in this video, you enjoy the trading opportunities, please hit the like button and feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can really benefit watching that. Also, few words in the comment section. Be a fantastic support and help with all the ways that the YouTube algorithm works. And if you are new to this channel, then please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video so you can enjoy all the content we upload here for you. Thank you very much in advance for your help and for taking the time to support back. Now let's continue. One of the biggest questions, uh, or repeating questions In the recent period from my members is, "Do you think the gold topped?" So there is a very big probability for that, and yet I have my doubts. At least at the moment, I think that the gold is yet to make another high. So despite the fact that the weekly chart. Did have a bearish divergence in play, the price structure at the moment, or the price reaction, does not look like the bears are taking control, not on the weekly and not on a daily. On the daily, we also did have this bearish divergence here, but again, since then the market is ranging and the current low fails to break. So with that in mind, usually, of course, everything could change in a matter of months or two, but usually, technically speaking, at such conditions, what the market is trying to do is to complete some sort of ABCD structure here or some range, right? And then make the continuation. So In terms of range, I have my personal doubts if it's a valid range at the moment to the upside. Again, at the moment. But I do believe that we have a very good probability here to complete the second wave down before we actually turn around to the upside. So if my analysis is correct, of course it's more aggressive because it's against the weekly, which I Anticipate one more high. But if my analysis is correct, this was the first daily leg. We did have two waves down, two waves up, which stands for the zigzag pattern. Okay, so this was the first daily leg. Then I do expect this leg to complete, and if I break that down, then the beginning here was two waves down versus two waves. Up in that case, which attempts to break still has to work harder to manage the breakout, right? So if we go and we try to make it in a precise way, we need this this level basically to be broken. We need the gold to go and hold below this zone. So if it does. My according to the anticipation and the analysis, let's plot the daily levels of the Fibonacci. This was the daily legs, and this were the daily legs. And now let's plot Fibonacci extension on the current four-hour chart legs. So I believe this was the first one, and this should be the second one. That is the ideal target zone. This is where I believe we should be heading eventually. This is where I expect the gold to go and complete some divergence and from there to start the potential rise. So what I really want to see on gold is first of all the price go and hold below this rising supportive line which also then could be in synchronization with the 1-hour chart. Because, because currently if we connect the current structure, low, high, low, high, right, we got 3 lower highs, lower lows. Now we get into some sort of a ranging structure. So if the gold managed to go and hold that, it should open the doors to the bearish move to the levels we discussed here. Now, one thing to keep in mind, since we are talking about the move against the weekly chart, there is a chance that this 61.8 will make some troubles, at least at the beginning, right? There is a chance we are going to try to spike it, and because there is already established support line, that could become a bullish divergence. I don't know to predict if it would. But if this level manages to hold and we don't see the breakout towards the next area, then it might be a smart decision to consider and manage the profits earlier around this zone. So for me, I'm after sell opportunities on the short term on gold. And let me know, how do you see the gold? Where is it heading? Are we going to see the gold going to below 2,000 one more time, or that 2,015, 2,010 is going to hold, and from there the sky is our limit for the next wave upside? Let me know in the comment section. Below this video, and the final one for this video is going to be the Aussie Kiwi, a pair that I don't work with way too often. However, with the current structure we have, it is very interesting. So the way it looks right now, reading the price, it does feel like the Aussie Kiwi is going to try and to. Complete this developing cycle until a new weekly low would be formed on the, on this zone, and then a bullish divergence will follow up as well. Also, if we take a look on the most recent range, we can clearly see that after this range consolidation, right, came the breakout. And this breakout, as for now, has no signs against it. The very interesting fact that I love that the breakout happens to be right below a very strong balance zone based on the volume profile. Yes, usually this is a phenomenal sign. So if we go to the lower time frame, the daily chart in that case, on a daily chart it also breaks its own range. So that was the zigzag structure. Two waves down, followed by a range on the daily chart, and which now makes its breakout. Okay, so at the moment there are no signs against anywhere, which for me means sell the rallies until the weekly zone would be established. So let's plot a Fibonacci to try to understand where are we heading. So this is the daily cycle. This is the developing shorter-term cycle, or on the short waves. And if we go to the weekly chart, you can see— let's plot the weekly Fibonacci extension, and you will see the 61.8 of these 2 legs here. So according to the way it is developing as for now, Aussie-Kiwi Should be heading to at least the this zone, right? This area. Now if we go to the four-hour chart, this is where we should be looking for the lower time frame waves and to look for this opportunity, right? Keep in mind also the four-hour chart has no signs against. All it does have is gained momentum by making the lower highs, lower lows, which for me means sell these rallies. Should be phenomenal opportunity. Usually the pullbacks here happen to be either in ABCD or a range and continuation, or one leg upside, then lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the indicator to create a bearish hidden divergence, and from there create some great sell opportunities. For me, as long as this major balance zone we saw based on the volume profile holds, any sell the rallies here is opportunity for further sell. So for me, to sum up, a very obvious, a very clear trending structure: sell the rallies on the AUD/JPY. And let me know, how do you see this one? How Low is it going to reach? Will we see the price breaking below 105, and then according to the weekly chart, we can expect that if the 105 is broken, we can then talk about 104, 103, and who knows, maybe the monthly lows around the parity level, the one, or it just fake sign and the Aussie Kiwi is going to back to. 108, 109, 110 on the reverse trend. Share your thoughts in the comment section below this video. That would be it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the trading opportunities. Let me know in the comment section what instruments would you like me to cover on the next video I upload here for you. So thanks for your time watching this video, and I wish you wonderful trading. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will enjoy your access to our comprehensive, full, complete trading courses for beginners and advanced, rich media zone, real-time trading opportunities and education, live session trading tools, community access and chat, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, once again, thanks for your time. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.