Forex Weekly Forecast | EURUSD, USDJPY, BITCOIN | 15 January 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. The first instrument for today, euro-dollar. Before the charts, big thanks to Adka Broker for supporting me, this channel, my community. To enjoy the special offers And to get your access to my trading systems, up to one year access to the club, private mentoring sessions, and many more great offers, please follow the link below this video in the description. So what do we have on the euro dollar, and why do I find it interesting? According to the weekly chart, the pair ended its wave here, and there was a bearish divergence on the histogram, and the last two highs ended with divergence. on the moving average of the MACD. While the market was making the higher highs, indicator made lower highs, and we got the first corrective wave. Usually though, such corrections end up to be in 2 waves or in some cases ranges. In less common cases, uh, we end up with one pullback, then we regain momentum, little pullback up before the continuation. So for me, on the short term, as long as this zone actually holds and the 110 acts as a barrier, as an obstacle, there is a good chance to see short-term sells before the buyers Take control. The interesting part here is what happened during the last week fundamentally. CPI report shows that the road to 2% inflation rate according to the Federal Reserve, well, is not paved perfectly yet. There is more work to do. Why it's interesting? Because at least what happened on the At the end of the last year, the investors started to expect—I don't know why—but expect three cuts in 2024. Three, not less. Why? We didn't even reach the inflation rate of two percent yet. We are still around three percent. Even more, how they actually value three percent three times cut—that's a good question. So maybe this realization that it's not gonna happen as fast as they wanted, and the Federal Reserve cannot allow themselves to go aggressive so much. Maybe this realization will be the one that actually will. Give some strength to the dollar. And with that in mind, if we drop to the daily chart, here are the 2 scenarios that actually could happen here. So here is what happened on a daily chart. After the price made the lower lows, we got the rally, and this rally went all the way to retest the last swing, the last swing high before the low was created. As a zone of supply, zone of sellers. That happened to be in 3 waves. These 3 waves ended with a bearish divergence. Again, market making higher highs, indicator made lower highs. Very good condition that a corrective structure could take place. Corrective structure most of the times comes as ABCD and in some cases as a range. Okay, different type of ranges. Which means according to that, sell the rallies on the short term make a lot of sense. So if we go to the 4-hour chart, okay, here is what could go and happen here. We got the first move down, now we are ranging here. Keep in mind that Monday it's Martin Luther King Day, which means the American banks are off. That means that the the the moves or the interest of that could start basically not Monday but Tuesday. If we manage to see the pair breaking below this range, going and making these lows, then sell the rallies could push the price lower indeed as expected. The zone of 50% daily Fibonacci with 100% expansion of that. Will bring us to the previous low and the demand. And as you can see here, based on the Volume Profile indicator, very important daily level. So this is the first scenario. The second scenario, though, that could happen here, that all that is a trap because we are holding this massive Volume Profile supportive area, as you can see from the 4-hour, daily, and weekly. Sometimes such case is basically nothing more than a trap. And if this low continues to hold and the price continues to bounce without gaining any momentum, right, that could be the, the final rally that will— let me go back to the weekly chart— bring back the possibility that instead of making the correction Just erase that. We will see the euro dollar eventually pushing towards the 61.8 expansion of the two legs. Okay, so once again, if this zone we were just seeing from the volumes is going to hold and fight, there is a good chance we will see the euro dollar rallying further. Okay, now why this could happen specifically? Because According to the estimation, right, um, from the last year, the Fed will cut 3 times. As the months will start to move forward, proceed further, what could happen here is the disappointment that the Fed cannot cut so fast, so aggressively, so many times. And as the, the market will present these Like, aha, the Fed is going to cut, so the dollar is going to lose its value. At some point, it will reach this critical area, complete the cycle of the divergence, and from there, with the disappointment from the Fed, will make the move down dramatically. So this is my trading plan. Once again, the initial plan is that we go and we get this range breakout. We start to go below the low. And then pull the pullbacks to be sold towards the next key zone. Okay, but if this area managed to hold and the sellers don't gain the momentum and we start to gain some rallies from here, okay, then it actually becomes a buy towards the 61.8 Fibonacci from the weekly here around the 115. Okay, and that's also the supply area we have here. Okay, so something like that, go up and the rally towards this zone. Okay, these are the plans I see on the EUR/USD, while the short-term sells is my first major plan. Ideal scenario for me is that we first of all complete ABCD order range on a weekly chart, only then rally. That will be the ideal scenario for me, but not always the market acts as ideal, and sometimes it goes as ranging before completing two legs to the upside. Okay, so that's how I see the euro dollar. Let me know what do you think about this one in the comment section below this video. By the way, before we continue, I want to remind you I uploaded a video for for those of you who love long-term trading. It's a Several instruments, the way I see them for 2024. Great opportunities: the pound-dollar, euro-pound, Swiss yen, Nasdaq, and you will love that. Make sure you watch that in the YouTube channel. So the next pair is the dollar yen. Before I continue, I would like to ask your support. If you find value and you appreciate this video and the trading opportunities, please hit this like button below this video. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can. Benefit watching that. And if you are new to this channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Your help is very much appreciated. Thank you for taking the time to support. Back. Dollar-yen. What do we have with this one? One of the scenarios we discussed in the last weekly forecast was buy the dips until we get the rally, and from there look to go and So we got basically the, the first scenario completed. We got the drop, we got the rally. The question is, what is happening next? So exactly as I said on the last weekly forecast, the long term for me is not yet clear. With that in mind, short term could continuously provide opportunities. We have several important supply. The first one is now being retested. Next one is not too far, and the next one is also not too far, and it's also right on this volume profile, a strong supply area, which means there is a good chance the market will still try to push a little bit over these areas before the sells. And that's how I actually plan to work with that. If we continue and get this final, uh, rally here to complete this bearish divergence directly from the supply we just saw from a daily chart, from there I will be looking for the short-term sells. Meanwhile On the short term, if we got this some ABCD or a ranging correction done back to the supportive zone, for example, right? Or here, this area is very important area. And if as long as this area holds, this could continuously provide short-term buy opportunities. So exactly as it was in the previous week. The plan remains pretty much the same. While due to the price as it develops at the moment, my preferred scenario is sell new highs. Ideally something like that, right? One more high on the chart and then we have the dynamic resistance, we have the supply we saw, we have the volume profile Right? All that create here a major rejection zone, which from there we can actually go and look for the sells. So dollar yen started the year by following the the first plan, and here is the second plan, which I just shared with you. Now let me know how do you see the dollar yen? What would you expect from that? I know many traders believe we are going back to. 150. Let me know what do you think in the comment section. And the final one, the Bitcoin. This Bitcoin that everyone, at least online, was trying to sell us that as soon as the ETF is released, we are going to $100,000, we are going to $150,000, and we're going to more beyond that. The sky is the limit. And here is What happens since ETF accepted? And here is what happens. You see yourself. We come, we came close to the 50 level just to see the bounce back, which is absolutely logical because remember the market, the previous rally was with the anticipation for something that was approved. Okay, so yes, it was approved, but did it bring as much excitement? Because it was a huge massive hype. Did it bring the excitement that it looked like it's going to bring? Not sure about that at all. Did it bring all the new money it promised to bring? Not sure at all. And according to that and the fact that they started to limit shorts, at least in the beginning of of the new release bring more bearish pressure than bullish pressure. So for me, take a look what happens on the weekly chart. We have a strong supply area here. There is a rejection and the retest of this swing high and this range. All that happens around the $50,000 level. Going down to the daily chart, at the end of these 3 waves We have a major divergence. While the market making the higher highs, indicator is screaming lower highs, which means bearish divergence and very likely for the sell. And taking that for the— actually, let's stay on the weekly chart. Take a look what happens here with this trio. Okay, 3 daily candles making the lower highs, lower lows with this bearish engulfing Completing, not full engulfing, just a body to body, completing a false breakout. Second false breakout. That was the first. That's the second under the bearish divergence condition. Very strong technical sign. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, we basically got this most recent rally, right? And it breaks the low right now. It breaks the rising supportive line. And making the lower lows. So for me, it's basically the plan here is further move down, sell the rallies with this zone as the first logical zone as the target. And the next potential target for me is right here around the $35,000 inner zone. Okay, so that's first zone. And then the second zone all the way down to there. Can that go below that towards the $30,000 for the long run? Yes. Currently I don't see the reason for that, but it definitely can. So on the short term, as exciting the news for the ETFs and the Bitcoin becoming publicly accepted without the need having a wallet to be involved in this market. As exciting as it is, not sure, uh, it, uh, has the hype or all the reasons for the hype at the moment. The bearish pressure here is stronger than the bullish one from my point of view. For me, at least on the short term, it's sell the rise. Let me know, what do you think about the Bitcoin? How low is it going from here, or it's just a trap and we will indeed see all-time highs achieved sooner than we think? Share with us your thoughts in the comment section. So that's it for this video. Thank you very much for watching it. Again, I hope you find value in it. Feel free to share it with anyone who you believe can benefit watching, uh, the trading these trading ideas and enjoy them. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our comprehensive media zone, full trading courses, real-time trading opportunities, real-time trading education, access to the community, so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading and good week ahead. Bye for now.