Forex Weekly Forecast | EURUSD, USDJPY, GOLD, BITCOIN | 15 December 2025 - By Vladimir Ribakov

What's up guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to another weekly forex forecast. Before the charts, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to Eightcap Broker for their support in our community, and you can enjoy all the special offers we have. As part of the partnership with 8K Broker, including the access to all the trading systems, all the trading strategies, the Home Trader Club up to 1 full year, and private sessions. The link to all that is below this video in the description. Lots of things happened in the last couple of weeks, and the main event after all that was that the Federal Reserve cuts the rates, and for the first time kind of give, maybe not direct, but kind of give hints that they will keep the probability to cut more in the beginning of 2026. And with that, the market gets excited and the anti-dollar move seems building up and probably providing some interesting opportunities as well. So there are many interesting things on our list for today. Let's begin. The first one is the euro-dollar, and a couple of weeks ago on the last video I uploaded, we discussed that one of the scenarios was that the euro will actually manage to make the higher highs, higher lows, and return to the bullish view with the expectations eventually to go above the 1.20 to complete the weekly cycle. The second scenario was that if it breaks down this range, then we should see the euro going below 114, maybe 111 before the next rally. So in that case, scenario one happened and the euro managed to make the higher highs, higher lows. What does all that mean to us? Let's go back to the weekly chart and try to understand what is going on here. So the way I see that. The euro should eventually push that move to the upside until the weekly cycle would be able to complete itself. That could happen around the 1.20, but most likely 1.22, 1.24, or maybe even higher until all that will complete, and only then sellers will step back. So taking all the weekly chart into consideration, we go down to the day— we saw the daily chart. Let's go down to the 4-hour chart. We can see that the market is making— oops, sorry— the price structure is actually sequence of higher highs, higher lows. Let me just hide these levels a little bit. Higher highs, higher lows, and there are no opposite signs against No divergences, no waves against nothing. So unless there will be some surprises by the market, I believe that the current structure stands with the buyers and therefore buy retraces is the trading plan here. So here are the key levels the way I would want to see them holding in order to look for the buys. Of course, the broken resist that now acts as this supportive area. First key zone to hold. The second is, of course, these flat resistances in a row around the 116.70-ish. And the last one is the 116.10, 116.20 area, which was the last low of this rally and also significant area. And that also is very likely to correspond this rising trend line we have there. So as long as these levels hold, For me, the plan is to look for the retraces and buy the euro dollar. And if we take a look on the numbers of the market trend snapshot and how it all moves, look at what happens with the euro. The one month, as we can see here, is more than one percent on the positive side, as well as the last seven days. Usually that simply corresponds to a clean bullish control. The last 24 hours was pretty much flat, which means nothing, but the bigger picture is bullish, and that's why the numbers together with the technical view, they all hint that the buyers are in the game. That's why we are looking to buy the dips. And the next one is the dollar-yen, which since the new government and the new prime minister been suffering. The yen was suffering against the majority of instruments, managed to break above this range, and the way it looks like right now, the USDJPY will try eventually to complete another peak. I'll go for a monthly chart just to explain the logic behind that in these 3 waves here. 1, 2, and 3 here, which is very likely to happen through 2026, where according to many analysts and expectations in 2026, they might start to change their policies on the longer run and then it could flip. So if that all aligns correctly, that means we already had one false breakout here, but we never flipped the price structure. There will never be lower highs, lower lows on the longer perspective, only shorter one. And that's usually a sign that another false breakout is coming under the same divergence we already experienced. So if that all, you know, comes together and the daily— the weekly line, trendline of the range was broken, and on a daily chart currently we can see sequence of highs and lows, it all goes up And there is no divergence against, which is another strong sign why the dollar yen is very likely to push further. So the plan on the dollar yen is buy these retraces. Let's take a look on the numbers. And what do we see here? The one month is very positive. Seven days, twenty-four hours do not hit much, but the bigger view, the broader numbers actually show that the buyers are in control and that is very likely to stay like that. And if we go back to the daily and the 4-hour chart, these are the key levels I would be paying attention to: the low of the previous corrective leg, this area, as long as it holds, which also is around these resistances as you can see here. Broken resistances act as support, and we are talking on a range of about 154.50 down to 154, maybe a little bit lower than that. As long as these areas hold, we should be looking for buy opportunities there. Of course, look for price rejection, right? Looks for the price to reject around the levels before you actually step in. And not just buy with hopes. And the second key zone, which would be a bit more cleaner on a daily chart— let's go to the daily chart— would be the previous low of the daily chart, which is also surrounded by broken resistance that acts as support right now around the 150, and the rising trend line. These are the two key levels that as long as they hold, for me, dollar yen is buy the dips. And what happens with the gold? This is our next one on the list. The way it looks, uh, and I, I spoke about it many times already, uh, we are on extreme overbought conditions. I do not have much doubt that once the peak is officially formed This is a strong sign of a retest of the 3,500, maybe 3,300 levels. And I believe that this peak is forming. However, with all these overbought conditions, it doesn't mean it happens right away. And that's what many traders fail to understand, that not always there is a peak. That's it. Huge reversal coming. That's not always the case. Many times it is forming, forming, forming, forming, rounding a peak, and then bam, it happens. So what happens here is the daily is— sorry, the monthly is overbought, the weekly was overbought, and now again flirts with the RSI around 80 levels. And we start to see some slowdown of the price here as well. So I believe that this is a strong sign that it is building up and there are a couple of main scenarios to follow on the lower time frames— let's close these levels— that we would want to see. The ideal one is the breakthrough this peak in 3 waves, of course, complete the bearish divergence, complete some fake high break and retrace to hint that the sellers step in the game. This would be simply the ideal scenario, and for that, on the lower time frames, you can actually look for the possibility to ride that, right? We currently have some slowdown conditions, but doesn't look like a long-term trend change yet, which means on the shorter term, buy these dips could really provide good opportunities. We have broken resistance that now acts as Around the 4250 down to 4230, we have the rising trend line and the demand level here, which is the series of lows around the 4200. So as long as these levels hold in the short term, we could see the retraces. But I don't think that the long term is over. And as soon as the gold completes the peak and a divergence. Then we should be looking for the reversal signs and a sell. But most likely things could happen differently, of course, but most likely this is something for 2026 as we are ahead of the holiday season. Volatility and liquidity are very likely to slowly but steadily drop. So for me, here is the summary for the gold. For the sell, I would want to see another peak completing, daily divergence complete, which means higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD, and then look for the reversal signs starting with candles and false breakouts. And for the bullish view, which if we assume the daily is yet to complete the peak, then I would be paying attention to the broken resistance that acts as support, the last low which act as a demand level where the buyers were in control, and the rising trend line. And from there, looking for potential buy opportunities, of course with price rejection, not just jumping in, but first of all make sure the price reject around these levels. From there, look for the buys to enjoy this what supposed to be final rally. And the final one for this week, Bitcoin. We've been talking about the Bitcoin in the last Weekly forecast here, and I said that I am not certain that the sell is over, and that is still my opinion. I still believe that the Bitcoin is here to deliver another push down, which is very likely to happen next next year. But I don't think it's over, and the reason why I don't think it's over is I believe that the way that the weekly cycle behaves with its divergence. It means we are heading to corrective cycle. Corrective cycle is usually either ABCD correction or sometimes it just moves in a range, but I don't think the bearish pressure is over. So for the longer run, it's still sell the rallies for me. As simple as that. Now, what are the key levels on the Bitcoin? Let's put the levels here, shapes. So of course, we have the broken support that now acts as resistance around the $100,000. This is a psychological level, a big number. But as long as it holds, this area is a very strong area. And the closer it gets there, the stronger the bearish pressure should become. And the next key zone, the way I see that, is actually slightly higher, around the 108,000 up to 112,000, which is the peaks where the sellers took control in the previous attempt. So as long as this level holds, any rally closer should be providing the sell opportunities. On the shorter term though, these key demand levels where buyers already were taking some control could still provide rejections and some pushes to the upside, again on the shorter-term view. And we are talking about this— that would be more aggressive than the longer-term sell, but still could provide interesting opportunities. We are talking around the $88,000, and the second level is around $85,000. Definitely levels I would be paying attention to, because if they manage to hold and price managed to reject, that could give some interesting short-term buy opportunities. But for the long term, My view, the sellers are not done with the Bitcoin. I know that the internet is full with buyers that promise that 250 is going to be broken in 2025. I'll bet my hundred bucks on that that it's most likely not gonna happen. Of course, surprises could happen, but the way that the technical view looks like and the way that the pressure. Is currently working in this market. I don't see that happens so fast. That's why for me this is the trading plan. So that's pretty much it, guys, for this video. As always, I hope you find value in the trading opportunities. If you do, please don't forget to hit the like button, and if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. 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