In this weekly video, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews the macro‑economic backdrop for the week of May 8‑12 2023 and presents three specific forex trade ideas. He notes upcoming US and UK data releases – a possible 25‑bp Fed rate hike, strong US non‑farm payrolls, US CPI, and the Bank of England’s rate decision – and discusses how these could influence market sentiment. The first trade idea is a bearish outlook on EUR/GBP, based on a broken rising support line on the daily chart, volume‑profile resistance, and a pattern of lower highs/lows. The second idea is bullish on GBP/USD, citing long‑term bullish divergence across MACD, RSI, and moving averages, a strong volume‑profile support area, and the expectation of buying the dips as the pair respects key support levels. The third idea is bearish on EUR/CAD, supported by multi‑timeframe bearish divergence, a supply‑rejection zone around 1.50, strong bearish engulfing patterns, and lower‑timeframe Bollinger Band exhaustion signals, with targets around 1.42‑1.36. Throughout, Ribakov references technical tools such as trendlines, volume profile, Fibonacci extensions, MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, and he emphasizes risk management by watching key support/resistance zones. The video also includes sponsorship acknowledgments for Mugen Markets and a call to join the Home Trader Club community.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Most recent week was very interesting and so far the strategy of sell in May and go away does not prove to be the best chosen strategy. However, it all might change for the markets, and the volatility is increasing. We had several very interesting events published during the last week. If it's the Federal Reserve who hikes the rates by 25 basis points, but also hints that maybe this was the last one. We have the nonfarm payrolls which keep showing very solid, strong job market, even though lots of the biggest companies in the tech world keep firing masses of people. That's very contradicting numbers, but the services industry keeps hiring and hiring a lot. And this week, it will be the week of the CPI and rate decision in Britain. So before we go, um, to all the charts, uh, and talk about the opportunities, uh, then in this video we will cover, um, 3 opportunities which I have on my list. That would be the Euro-Canadian, a follow-up to the pair we were following, uh, lately in the last, uh, weeks, uh, the Pound-Dollar and the Euro-Pound, which I believe will be very interesting. Ready? Let's begin. So let's go to the charts. And the first one for us will be the euro pound. Very interesting pair. And here is the purely price-based situation I currently see. But take a look what happens here on a long view since 2017. The pair is moving in a very wide. I say very wide. We're talking about 1,000 points here. Okay, but very wide range. No trends were defined. Okay, we did have higher highs. Then we had lower lows, and anything in between stays inside the range. Okay, so the big picture here in the big trend is. Very, very, very flat, and yeah, it's wide but flat. But here is the interesting part currently going on. Going back to the weekly chart, if we connect the most recent two lows, what we can see here that the rising supportive line from the weekly chart is yet to be retested and reached. And if we go to the daily chart, we can clearly see that right now. The most recent rising supportive line connecting the most recent 3 lows was broken. And the structure at the moment is we have 3 lower highs, lower lows. We also have 2 lower lows, right? 3 lower highs, 2 lower lows. And right now this line is broken. Add to that a very interesting fact that the price currently is holding below this massive Volume profile based resistance area, and what we receive here is a very possible opportunity that the euro pound will try to push down. If we connect the lows of this daily channel, we will see that it will. It should meet us with the weekly uptrend line and the next important swing low. We can see here from. The daily chart. So if there will be no surprises, the euro pound can be a very interesting one. What should we pay attention to this week? So this was the previous week, again, as I said before, with the Fed hike the rates and the non-farm payrolls really delivering amazing numbers. But this week we should be able to see also some important, uh, data coming out. Let's start with the CPI and the core CPI in US, uh, that will be published on the coming Wednesday. And then Thursday is a busy day in Britain with, as you can see here, official bank rate with expectations, uh, to see a hike also 25 points. Very likely, very logical that they will follow The U.S. exactly like Europe did recently. But what would be a very important factor here is what will be said for the foreseen future. Yeah, pay attention to that. That could of course affect our euro pound we were just talking about. So my view here is bearish, and as long as the most recent swing high is holding, for me sell the rallies becomes the plan. Any little pullback back to supports that are broken and now behave as a resistance or falling resistance line, the trend line, could be good zones to look for the price to bounce, reject, start to build some good bearish momentum and look for the sell opportunities to come. So this is my view on the euro pound. The next one on my list would be the pound dollar. But before that, I would like to take the opportunity and to thank Mugen Markets for supporting my channel, our work. And you can learn more about what Mugen Markets offer to their traders, including their unbeatable spreads and conditions and Managed PAMM account below this video in the description. You will find a direct link to follow. The next pair would be the pound dollar. Let's take a look. What do we have on this one? Bouncing from the long term chart, let's even start with the monthly just to present the logic. Why am I bullish here at the end of these three massive waves? We saw bullish divergence, undeniable bullish divergence pretty much everywhere. The moving average of the MACD and the RSI—it looks absolutely amazing for the long run. So what else should happen here and did not yet happen is we didn't have that long-term trend line broken in order to really change the trend, and we didn't get the previous high broken. However. We still did not retest the falling resistance line. And take a look at these two waves that we will see in a minute on the weekly chart meet the 61.8 expansion from the weekly chart Fibonacci and the falling resistance line from the monthly. And this is why I believe eventually we should be going right here. These are at the moment. The 2 corrective waves currently building up on a daily chart. What, uh, what another interesting thing happened here is that we did, after some consolidation here, we did break through this zone. And this becomes, again, based on volume profile, as you can see here, a lot of volume, uh, this becomes a very strong supportive area. So any pullback that will happen during the week, and with a note to pay attention to the rates coming out of Britain, it should use the pair for buy opportunities. Going to the daily chart, we do have here 2 important lows connecting in this rising supportive line. Broken resistance become a key support, and the volume area is the next support. As long as this zone holds My view for the pound dollar is bullish. I do expect it to reach eventually that 130 plus, and this plus could be significant if it managed to break the monthly falling resistance line I showed before. So yep, pound dollar for me is buy the dips, and I am bullish on this one. What do you think? Where is the pound dollar going? Let me know in the comment section below this video. And the final one would be the EuroCAD that survived the previous high as we analyzed on the previous weekly forecast. And I also made a follow-up during the week on this instrument. It is yet holding the previously created high despite a couple of days ago looked like, oh, yep, doesn't look good. So it managed to survive. So what happens here is a multi-timeframe divergence. And a beautiful, as you can see here, supply rejection zone around the psychological level 150. And so as long as this area holds, look what do we have on the weekly chart: two massive spikes presenting controls of the sellers, an amazing engulfing candle pattern, bearish divergence on the moving averages, the RSI and. Uh, the histogram, the RSI as well. So, uh, with that in mind, going down to the daily chart, we can see how strong these 2 following, uh, reversal candles are. It is a very good positive sign. Dropping down to the 4-hour chart, we start to see that we do create lower highs, lower lows, and there are no opposite signs against us. So with that in mind, any pullback here for me is a sign of continuation. Important levels to pay attention to is we can go to the lower time frame like the 1-hour chart, and we can see that we have over 20 candles right on the lower Bollinger Band. That's usually a sign of exhaustion. So very possible we will see here some slowing down conditions, attempt to pull back, and then continuation down. Levels I would be paying attention to— so first of all, this zone attempt from the buyers to resist which failed. Then of course the broken support becomes the resistance area, and the previous zone where the buyers try to reject and failed. These 3 zones are very important zones to pay attention to together with the falling resistance line that starts to build up. Any pullback towards this zone, and I will be looking for evidences to sell further down. Based on the daily and the weekly levels, I would expect this pair to reach at least this key volume zone that is below the 145, potentially all the way down 142 area, and if it managed to break below this zone, the next key level would be all the way down to 136, 135. So that would be all for this video. I would like to take the opportunity and to thank you for your time watching this video. If you are new to our channel, welcome to our community. Please subscribe with the subscribe button below. And also I do have a request from you. If you find value in such videos and all the trading opportunities and knowledge I share with you, please show your support back, hit this like button, drop a few words in the comment section. Uh, your help is very much appreciated and needed. This is how YouTube algorithm works. So thank you very much in advance to all those of you who take the time and support me and my work. And also I want to invite you to join us in our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Where you will get your access directly to full trading courses, both beginners and advanced, real-time trading opportunities, and real-time trading education, together with the access to our trading community. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, thanks for your time once again. I wish you and yours all the very best. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading and bye for now.
