Forex Weekly Forecast | GBPUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY, NASDAQ | 19 February 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Several very interesting opportunities are forming for us and before we start with the first one which would be the GBP/USD, I would like to take the opportunity and to thank 8K Broker for supporting me and this channel and our community to enjoy all the special offers we run with AdCap Brokers. Get your access up to 1 year to Home Trader Club, your access and license to the trading systems and the other trading tools we have, and private mentoring sessions. Use the link below this video in the description. The first one is the GBPUSD, and we will follow up the same idea we were talking about Recently, where the pound was forming this bearish hidden divergence at this point. Sorry, drawing at this point. The bearish hidden divergence completed the two waves afterwards, and the hidden divergence was verified. And since then, we see a clear breakout. So with Everything happening around the U.S. economy, with the inflation numbers still not showing the improvement the Federal Reserve wants to see, the retail sales that go down create a mixed situation. From one side, it's showing it's time to start considering the rate, uh, the rates to go down. And help the economy. The economy is the retail, retail, uh, sales. That's, that's us. That's the people. And from other side, the inflation is here. The prices are still holding above 3%, and it's not good numbers. That's not what the Fed wants to see, and it's still 50% above their target, which is at 2%. So with all the pressure The way it looks right now, it seems that the dollar is still the dollar strength is still here to stay. So the pound dollar is again under the bearish pressure, and we were talking about that on last several occasions. We have three bullish waves on the daily chart, which came right here to a major. Oops, excuse me, uh, to the major supply zone. Completed divergence, bearish divergence, where the market was making the higher highs versus lower highs on the indicator, followed by 2 false breakouts, 2 fake highs. And that means we anticipate a correction. Correction could be in 2 waves, which is ABCD, Or correction could be any sort of a range, which also still falls in this possibility here. And if the corrective structure is ABCD, in majority of cases the market tends to go all the way down to the 50%. So that's exactly what I want to follow up and to give the alternative, right? After that, so on the four-hour chart, here is how the waves are forming. The first wave was the zigzag: two waves down, two waves up, and follow the breakout. This is the first corrective daily leg. And remember, we anticipate two corrective legs. After that, we are developing the second corrective leg, which makes the low. High, lower high, low, high. And that's why our anticipation is we still have to see one final low, okay, to complete this daily ABCD correction. Okay, if that is— if the analysis here is correct, uh, the price could develop one of the 2 scenarios. Scenario number one, We develop here some sort of range, make the breakout, and take it all the way down to the 50% Fibonacci, or at least below this major supply demand zone from the daily chart. This is scenario number one. Of course, we can also work it with lower time frame where we get these two waves, break and correction and continuation. And the second scenario is if this will be forming as sort of a range, right, which could be like this, uh, any, any format of, uh, consolidation, right? And in that case, if the pound is or did finalize itself and holding this 38 Fibonacci retracement in the demand area, what we will want to see for the buys is the price breaking the falling resistance line and forming 3 waves up to gain back the bullish momentum and to go above this volume profile balance— based balance zone. If that happens, buy the dips becomes the plan, and then going back to the weekly chart to determine the target We will plot Fibonacci extension on the two weekly waves, and we will be very, very likely possibly heading towards the 61.8 extension at least, and that gives a big room upside. Okay, these are the two scenarios I will be following for the pound dollar with the current ongoing sell, and potentially if the markets. Still finds a way to believe that okay fine, the Fed will hold the rates in March, but then it will cut aggressively. If whatever brings the market this sort of you know bullish mood or anti-dollar mood, then the buy preparation would be accordingly. Let me know how do you see the pound dollar and what do you expect from this one? Share your thoughts in the comment section below this video. The second pair is the euro dollar. So this one reached a very, very interesting zone, and I want to explain also here what and how my bullish view will trigger and what will trigger the bearish view. But before that, before we continue, I would like to ask your support back. If you find value in this video and you enjoy the trading opportunities, please hit the like button, few words in the comment section. Is a fantastic, great help with all the way that the YouTube algorithm works. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that and enjoy the trading opportunities as well. And if you are new to this channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Thank you very much in advance for all your help and the support. Now, exactly like the pound-dollar, after completing 3 major waves upside The pair faced bearish divergence right on the supply zone and the area of 110. This is a massive zone of sellers that you can see it was fake broken, right? And it was right around the 110, and the bearish move completed. The— unlike the pound dollar, the euro dollar already, if we plot the Fibonacci on this move, cleaned the 50% and actually cleaned beyond the 61.8%. So on the longer term, there is a chance that the bearish move is not yet over and the euro will try to complete something like that, or basically complete the 2 major weekly corrective waves. If that is the case and the sellers are still under control, sell the rallies would be the plan here. But on the short term, we are in a very interesting zone, zone of buys. We have a beautiful area here, here, here, here, lots of buyers' demand area. And if we connect these 2 lows, we actually get rising supportive line which the price is bouncing off. Take a look on the last 3 daily candles here. They are making right on this zone. Yeah, let me just draw it for you right here. They are making 3 higher highs, higher low structure. That's a very interesting structure of 3 following days creating a bullish direction. And the candles here, unlike— sorry, let's go back to the daily chart— unlike on the previous attempt, because here we also had higher highs, right? Not higher lows, not 3 higher lows, but 3 higher highs. But look at the candles here compared to here. The candles here are much bigger, right? So with that in mind, we go to the 4-hour chart and we will see that after completing 3 bearish waves down, the market completed a bullish divergence, uh, beautifully creating lower lows on the chart versus higher lows on the indicator. So what we will want ideally to see, ideally, is the 4-hour chart falling resistance line broken, euro gaining something like that, pullback and a rally. Okay. And if we go to the lower timeframe, here is how it should work out. So the way that the euro-dollar is forming itself at the moment with its inner waves Should look like that. Break the 4-hour chart, right? Then some sort of a pullback here, and then we can start looking for continuation. The other alternative is that the euro is going because right now it's flirting with the 4-hour chart for the falling resistance line. So what could happen here is some sort of ABCD or a range, and then it will simultaneously break the 1-hour chart. Structure together with the 4-hour chart, um, falling resistance line and could provide a very interesting opportunity for the buy. In that case, if the EUR/USD really makes the move, this should be a beautifully legit target zone, previously created highs with the first broken support area which now acts as a resistance and this major volume profile-based balance zone. Okay, so this is the short-term buys opportunities. After that, I believe we should start looking for possible sell from here or either slightly higher. Uh, the rallies towards there should provide a further sell, again assuming that the daily chart is now about to make the correction If that is the case, I believe we should see the waves developing in this sort of a way. So this is my trading plan on the euro dollar. That's how I see this one. What are your thoughts? What do you expect from this pair? Share your thoughts in the comment section below this video. The next pair is the pound yen, and following the bullish idea we discussed a couple of weeks ago where we were after buy the dips. Right, with the return to this area, the pound yen delivers a massive major rally since. The question is, is that over? So I don't think it's over, but I think it's coming to the place where a major potential reversal is going to build up. The way it looks right now, the weekly chart is completing the waves we have here ongoing. Resistance line, so spike through this line or touch through this line, and the completion of a weekly divergence should then build up an amazing sell. Dropping down to the daily chart, the ideal scenario here is where the daily— let's make it this way— where the daily also completes its own 3 waves with a bearish divergence. And then start creating the reversal sign. And that's exactly what I want to talk about right now. By the way, if you didn't watch this video on our channel, how the trend change structure works, make sure right now in the right top corner of this video you will find a direct link to watch that. So what the classical structure here should be the following, right? GBPJPY should start to form fake highs. Basically attempt for a high, pullback, attempt for a high, pullback. All that under the condition of a bearish divergence. If that manages to happen, this rising supportive line would be the interest of breakout. We will want the price to start making lower lows and then sell the rallies will become the major plan for us. The other alternative that could happen is that the 4-hour chart will start to build the lower highs, lower lows without completing the false breakout, and then after making the pullbacks, look for the breakouts. That could be again an alternative reversal pattern for the sells. The daily and the weekly divergences as they form provide the sort of overview and understanding, and the sellers start to show their interest, a big interest on this pair. Reaching out the key zones around the 190, slightly higher, will put a lot of pressure, taking into consideration that Japan entered a recession. Their numbers are not doing good, with some sort of probability and possibility that the central bank will start doing and taking steps to change that. All that could be a leading factor to see the reversal. So pay attention to the pound yen, and for those of you who are riding these buys, pay attention for these reversal signs. To profit, to cash out your profits, and to enjoy these moves. So that's my view for the pound yen. Let me know how do you see this one. Share your view in the comment section below this video. The final one is going to be Nasdaq. So after completing another high, right now the Nasdaq is bouncing with a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. And RSI as well, and it all starts to look very interesting. If we drop down to the 4-hour chart, what we will see there— one moment— that on the 4-hour chart we also had a bearish divergence here developing at the end of these waves. And if we go to the 1-hour chart to try and determine the reversal pattern, what we will see on the 1-hour chart that at the end of these waves, also from higher highs on the chart, we created the lower highs. Then we followed with a strong bearish divergence and lower lows on the chart and the indicators that completed the 3 waves down. And right now, with these 2 corrective waves and the breakout to the downside, the market is making lower lows again, which makes me think As long as this short-term high is holding, any seller rallies here could be a good opportunity. With that in mind, if the sellers really take the control, then the zone of this low and all these candles that were accumulating the buys could be a great one to see for the correction, and that's where it might be actually Heading on a on a short term, so sell the rallies on Nasdaq would be my trading plan for the coming week, at least on the short term. Your thoughts in the comment section below this video. Thanks for your time watching this video. I hope you find value in it, and if you do, please don't forget the like button and to subscribe to the channel with the subscribe button. Also, I want to invite you to our trading family. Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, live sessions on a weekly basis, access to the community media zone, trading tools, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, thanks for your time once again. Best to you and yours. Stay safe, be well, happy weekend, good trading. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.