Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold using Bollinger Bands and MACD. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1810-1.1770 with a potential drop to 1.1600-1.1450. Gold is overbought on the monthly chart and could reverse from $3,500 or decline toward $3,100.
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What's up guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before the chart, as always, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community, and I want to remind you that you can continue and enjoy all the phenomenal offers we have with 8K Broker. Including the access up to 1 full year to Home Trader Club, including access to all of our marketplace tools, the trading systems, private mentoring session, and more, please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first for today, the EUR/USD, and a quick reminder of what we discussed in the last week. You can of course watch that in the— on the channel. Uh, on the previous video we discussed about the setup where we expect the euro to push to the downside. So I want to explain here why we are in a bearish pressure. Let's take a look on our custom-made Bollinger Band indicator. From the breakout here we got an amazing— not reversal sign, but resistance area which is perfectly combining the last high, which is the supply, and broken support, which is the resistance. That by itself puts a pressure on the short term to take the euro to the downside. The biggest question is, will it happen from here or one more push to the upside? Take a look what happens on the daily chart. We got the waves to the upside, we have a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD, we are riding on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles. That puts the pressure to the sell area. The last time it happened was here. We remember how deep the correction was after that. Last time it was here, and before that it was here onto the downside. So this is a very strong indication that the sellers are in control, or will be trying to be in control, at least on the short term. So there are 2 scenarios I see on the euro dollar at the moment. We do see 3 lower highs, lower lows, which could be a potential reversal sign. So as long as the supply levels here and the last peak, that's around 118.10 down to 117.70, as long as it will hold, every retrace here could push the euro down to 116, maybe even 1.1450 or lower. If the euro does not hold the current supply area and pushes one more run, then I believe we should see that somewhere in between 1.19 to 1.21 before the bigger reversal will take place towards the mentioned zone. So, uh, that's what we have on the euro-dollar in terms of the technical analysis. And in terms of numbers If you remember from the last weeks, we were on a very positive run. But take a look what happens here. The monthly starts to shrink. It was more than like 3%. That's 7 days minus about 1%. That's a significant switch of numbers which hint that the buyers are losing their grip and a correction is very likely to take place and very likely already started. Pound dollar. If you remember, in the last week we discussed about this scenario where we want to sell the rallies. What's next with this pair? I don't think it's over. Pretty similar to what we saw on the euro dollar, the pound dollar bounces off a major supply zone which is around the 137.50. This is from the weekly chart. On the daily chart, it is bouncing off a major bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. Of course, false breakout. If you remember some days ago, a massive engulfing. This is a fantastic sign. So I believe we are heading down to 134 and lower, maybe even below 132 and 131. I don't think the bearish journey is over for the pound. For me, it is bearish, and every rally, if happens here, should be an indication to sell further on. If we take a look on the numbers in our trend snapshot in Home Trader Club, pound-dollar entered a very negative zone after being controlled by the buyers in the last month or more. Monthly flips to the negative. Seven days is getting close to two percent. Twenty-four hours more than half percent. We are in the bearish momentum. Sell the rallies. Dollar yen is our next pair. Last week we were talking about a potential ranging scenario here before the sell, but here is a but. While I do expect sell for the long term, on a short term. There is a possibility we are moving inside this range. The reason is that after the weekly cycle and the bearish divergence, we do expect either ABCD or a range. While it— I did expect, and I still do, to see this ABCD complete, a range is a very possible scenario which we cannot deny and cross out of the option list. So with this idea in mind, the longer term is a little bit, um, unclear at the moment. So for the short term, as we get close to the peak of this range and the strong resistance area and the previous supply zone, we are talking from $148 up to $151. That's the 2 key levels. I believe on the short term From these zones just mentioned, we should be looking for the 4-hour chart to complete these waves and the bearish divergence, and very likely to start a corrective move to the downside. So while on the short— on the longer term, it's a bit unclear as for now, the 4-hour chart starts to look very good. And in terms of numbers here, we are in a very positive zone. While the monthly is getting close to 2%, um, positive. Daily is close to 3%. So the momentum is bullish, and that's why let the divergence form first. But the bigger the numbers are, and bigger than 1.5 or 2%, it starts to be out of the average normal zone. The bigger and longer it becomes, the stronger the pressure To the downside builds up, and from the supply levels we saw, I believe a correction is coming on the coming week or weeks. Final one is gold, which is still flirting with the overbought conditions on the monthly chart. This is a major sign, and if we take a look on the last, let me show the Bollinger Band. Last key breakout here we saw, we are now on the dynamic resistance number 2, which makes me think we should see for the medium side, medium term, um, bearish pressure. On the weekly chart, same story. We were riding on— we still are on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles, right? and the pressure to the downside getting more and more significant. Last time it happened here when it did not bring the strong correction. Before that, it happened here and it did, which now builds up and adds up to a major, major bearish pressure. There are 2 scenarios to look to sell the gold. The one and the ideal one, if we can get the final false breakout One more peak on the, on the gold run above the 3,500, or at least close to that. Higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD, and then looking for a major reversal. Alternative scenario on the gold is that we are building up a zigzag, which means 2 waves down, 2 waves up. And as long as this supply zone we have Here around the $3,390 up to $3,405. As long as that holds, this becomes a very possible scenario as 2 waves or a range break below the range, and from there to the move down, very possibly towards $3,100 and maybe even lower. So I am, after selling the gold with one of the mentioned scenarios. That's it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in it. Please don't forget to hit the like button if you do. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And also, I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Enjoy all the completed comprehensive trading courses and reach Um, very rich, I would say, uh, media zone with webinars and live sessions and real-time education, so much more. Follow us with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now.
