Vladimir Ribakov analyzes four currency pairs and gold for the week of June 30-July 4. EUR/USD shows bearish divergence near 1.17-1.19 and could sell down to 1.14-1.15. GBP/USD completed an ABCD correction and may reverse from 1.37-1.40 toward 1.32-1.35. Gold is bearish with a broken trend line, treating any rally as a sell opportunity.
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Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, you can enjoy all our amazing offers we have with 8K Broker. You can access to Home Trader Club up to one full year. Enjoy all the trading systems, all of our trading tools in the marketplace. Enjoy the private sessions with myself and so much more, take a look on the link below this video in the description. EUR/USD is our first instrument for today. Uh, we were following in the last week one of the scenarios we were talking about is we expect the euro to make the final rally, then start to build up its reversal signs before the sales take place. And, uh, well, here are the rallies. The question is what is coming next. I believe the euro dollar is very close to its, uh, peak, and here is why. Quick observation on the weekly chart. Let's plot the Bollinger Bands. This is our custom-made Bollinger Band. So take a look what happens here. From the first breakout of the Bollinger Band, we are right now around the first duplication level, which means key resistance zone. And the next one is slightly higher, right? But this is from the first breakout. From the second breakout of the Bollinger Band, which happened here on this candle, from there it gained the momentum. This is the key zone. Besides the Bollinger Band duplication, we have here a huge key level. Lots of consolidations here. Big zone between the Buyers and the sellers. Last high acts as supply. Broken support acts as resistance. This zone is key zone. Take a look what is possibly to happen here. RSI close to overbought conditions. If we drop to the daily chart, on a daily chart we can clearly see the euro dollar is about to complete its waves. You see this key, key level here? Uh, this is on a weekly chart, and with this bearish divergence developing, I think it is a question of time when the euro-dollar makes the peak here and begins its reversal sign. So I think for now the euro can still find, um, and form its peak in between the 117 to 119-ish. What I want to see here is basically false highs, fake highs. So something like that would be ideal, one or two false highs. I want to see the bearish divergence forming on the 4-hour chart. That would be the signs that we can start looking for the sells back to 115, 114, maybe even below that. If we take a look on the numbers, let's go to the market strength snapshot in the Home Trader Club members area. On the euro, you can see the one month is more than three percent, close to three point five percent. It's huge for the euro dollar, which means the buyers are in strong control. But seven days is two percent, twenty four hours is zero twelve percent, which means the momentum shrinks. The buyers lose the grip. Sellers are very likely to show the interest and take it over. Also pay attention to the overriding conditions on developing here on the. Bollinger Band upper band. That's another key sign to start looking for the sell. So the momentum is still here, uh, the buyers are still in control, but I believe the euro dollar is close to its peak and it's time to get ready for reversals. It might take time until it develops, but it's building up. And next one for today, pound dollar. Follow-up on our discussion from the previous week, which of course you can watch all the video in, in our channel. We were expecting to see this ABCD correction to complete before pound rallies again, and that's what we see from the pound. ABCD didn't go as deep as I wanted to see. I wanted to see it slightly lower, but it completed the ABCD. Then the war with Iran finished, paused, no one knows, but it definitely contributed to the rallies. We saw the pound dollar making its rally right to the zone we wanted to see, and I'm talking about the key supply level we have here from the weekly chart. So from my point of view, in between these two peaks that we see from the pound dollar and all this zone here, I believe we are due to form some peak and reversals to take place. So similar to the euro dollar, let's take a look. On the Bollinger Band from our breakout zone. We can see the first candle that breaks, which is here. The first— the Bollinger Band duplication is next to the price where it is right now. If we go to the daily chart, we can clearly see on a daily chart that we start to form a bearish divergence here as well, right? So The way I see that, it is forming a peak. I believe the peak is anywhere in between 137 to 139, maybe 140, and then very possible reversals back to 135, 134, maybe even below that to 132. In terms of triggers on the lower time frame, I think it's going to be pretty much similar to what we expect from the EUR/USD. So something like that would be ideal, where 4-hour chart can form its divergence, some fake highs, and start the reversal back to this zone. Pay attention to this key level here. You can see 135, 134, phenomenal zone based on the volume profile. That's why I think the higher we climb with some fake highs, the stronger the pressure to the downside. Meanwhile, on a short term, these retraces are very likely to make these push before the reversal. Another possible scenario here, the pound will form instead of false breakout a zigzag setup, which means try to create 2 waves down, try to rally but not above the previous peak, and then with the break of the, uh, line, make the move. In terms of numbers, if we go again back to the members area in Home Trader Club So we saw the euro dollar making the bullish run. Take a look what starts to happen on the pound dollar. Also, the one month and seven days are very positive—one point five percent and over two percent in seven days—and the twenty-four hours starts to shrink, which means the grip of the buyers losing the momentum. The the buyers lose the grip, and very very likely to assume. Uh, it is a sign that sales will build up. Um, again, it might take some time, but this starts to build up, and I think soon it's coming pretty much from the levels, uh, discussed. Dollar yen, our next instrument. We discussed in the last week that we expect the dollar yen To start the rally, we marked a couple of levels here and we wanted to see this peak and sell-off taking place. My view on the dollar yen did not change. I expect this pair to continue lower, make a final drop until it actually will complete the double cycle. One thing to pay attention to right now: we are. Moving here within some sort of a ranging rally, ranging because we never managed to break the previous peak. So if we manage to see the dollar yen breaking below this zone, I believe then a retest of this zone is likely before the continuation, the expected continuation to the downside. For me, dollar yen was and remains. Under the bearish pressure, I expect it to see, uh, to, to move further to the downside. And in, in the members area, let's take a look at the numbers. We can clearly see the numbers are flat, around 0% everywhere, which means no real control by, uh, by no one. Uh, so I believe that's another sign why with the break below the range, sellers Can take the control and push it further to the downside. Sell the rallies on the dollar yen from my point of view. Final one is gold, and we discussed in the last week one of the scenarios: if we get the dollar, the gold breaking below these levels, we can expect it continue lower. So the gold. Did just that. Let's take a look. It breaks the trend line. It comes for a retest and regains the momentum. Take a look. The dollar, the gold is making sequence of lower highs, lower lows to go below this low. That's a very strong sign, and it is holding so far below this key. Volume profile level. So there are a lot of rumors what's next with Trump and trade war that seems like renewed before the weekend. Of course, it could affect the gold, but as long as this peak hold and the volume profile zone hold, I believe gold is still bearish and we push that lower. If we take a look, we actually had this sell in In our club this this week, we got this trigger zone which entered the area and started its phenomenal move down. And again, I expected to see to see it lower as long as there are no surprises. I believe any retraces here should bring gold further down. Um, the way I would want to see the gold moving here is ideally, yeah, to complete 2 waves or at least some sort of a range here. Uh, we have a major rising trend line which could be retested, and of course previously created low, broken resistance becomes support, last low acts as demand. This would be the ideal zone for gold For the bearish side, so any rallies for me should be considered as a sell opportunity as long as the recent peak holds. That's pretty much it for this video. I hope you find value in it. If you do, please don't forget like button. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe. I want to invite you to our trading family, Home Trader Club. Enjoy our full courses, comprehensive media zone, real. Time, trading education, and trading opportunities shared with you in our dedicated channel. So much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I wish you wonderful trading week ahead, and happy July, and happy 1st of July, uh, to all, all my, um, Canadian followers, and happy 4th of July, uh, in advance to all the American viewers. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more good trading. Bye for now. Bye.
