Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold for the week ahead. EUR/USD is in bearish correction targeting a Fibonacci zone around 38-50% lower. Gold is overbought on weekly and monthly charts with RSI above 80, setting up a potential major sell.
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Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before the charts, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community, and you can enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker. including the access to Home Trader Club up to 1 full year, access to all of our trading systems and the marketplace, the private mentoring sessions, and so much more. Follow the link below this video in the description. First one for today, the EUR/USD, and a quick follow-up to what we discussed in the last week. Our expectation was that after some pullback that we will see here, the euro should continue lower and basically to establish some sort of new supportive zone before the rally continues. So at the moment, as we can see, the EUR/USD follows the plan. And did it really establish a bottom already? I don't think so. I believe there is more to come and it should be, as it develops right now, some deeper 2 waves. It will either complete one final push or we'll do some corrections here before the continuation. But I do not think that we saw the bottom of this correction. I believe the key zone on the euro dollar should be— if we plot Fibonacci on this whole thing, it should be ideally closer to the 38, maybe down to 50%. Therefore, I don't think it's over, and any pullback here, I believe, should bring the euro further to the downside. If we take a look on the numbers, so we are still in a corrective mode at the moment after a massive monthly change. It was more than 4% before. Now it starts to shrink as the days go. The last 7 days is negative. Last 24 hours, a bit of a positive environment. Keep in mind, with all the announcements from Trump during the week, we know the trade agreement with Britain is coming. We know there is some more news about the tariffs between the US and China coming. All that could have an impact on the market. But as long as nothing dramatic happens fundamentally speaking, I believe the euro did not say its final word. And it is still bearish under a bearish correction. Our next one, the pound dollar. So last week we discussed about two scenarios that we will see the pound dollar making a corrective structure as ABCD, or maybe it will be moving in a range. Both scenarios are more than possible at the moment, and similar to the euro dollar. I do not think the pound said its final, um, word. However, with the pound-dollar, what we could see the pound trying to make the final push here to complete this rally and this bearish divergence and then start its major correction. So there are a couple of scenarios I would be following on the pound-dollar Uh, for the beginning of the week as it is making as ABCD correction and attempts to go below this low. I would be following for the next scenario for the sell if it managed to complete a zigzag, which means 2 waves down, some ABCD or a range, and then managed to break it down. For me, it is a sign for a sell, and we have this rising supportive line that could be a beautiful target level. If it doesn't do it and if it just holds this range we discussed before, and the pound-dollar will start to do something like that, that means buy the dips until it makes the new high. If it chooses the second scenario path, then I would be following for this peak to form, a new divergence to complete here on the 4-hour chart together with the daily chart, and from there probably much deeper correction to the downside. So that's the pound-dollar. And if we take a look on the numbers in the pound-dollar, this is from our members area in Home Trader Club, then you can see that similar to the euro-dollar, the monthly is very positive, but we are now in a corrective mode. Last 7 days is a negative zone. That's why— that's what it makes me think, that the corrective structure is not over yet. And one of the scenarios I explained should follow. Our next one is the dollar yen and a follow-up to what we discussed from the last week. And again, you can always find these videos on my YouTube channel, of course, and see the full analysis. We expected to see the 4-hour chart making the rally until a divergence will complete. And this scenario is taking place at the moment. The question is, is it over? I believe not yet. But I also believe that it's getting very close to there and it should start building up the reversals and further drop to the downside. So the ideal scenario, the way I see that on the dollar-yen, is this peak should ideally again reach and clean the previously broken support that acts as a resistance up to the last high which acts as supply. This is the ideal zone. If it managed to push it in and make this divergence a little bit longer, it should be an ideal sell opportunity. And on the lower time frame, that could look to something like that, right? And then the 4-hour and a daily and the 1-hour chart complete the divergence. From there, look for the major sells. I believe that dollar yen should establish this peak somewhere around this area, uh, complete this ABCD correction and/or the range here, right, and make its move to the downside. In terms of numbers, what we saw before from the euro and the pound, with the dollar-yen it's a bit, uh, reversed. The month is negative, the last 7 days were very positive as we saw. But the longer term here is still not bullish. Therefore, I believe the numbers pretty much line up with the technical analysis, and I would be looking for the sell from the mentioned zone. That's my view on the dollar yen. The final one is the gold. As we saw on the gold, pretty much very strong moves up down during the week. Last week we were talking about getting some. Uh, ranging correction here and then continuation. We can see that the, uh, the logic behind still remains relevant, and there are a couple of scenarios that I will follow on the gold for the coming week, as the last week was pretty much, uh, zigzagging. We are still on the overbought conditions from the higher time frames, weekly and monthly. RSI is way above the 80. Daily charts Bounces off again overbought conditions, but never completed divergence. So one of these scenarios is exactly that: final rally, divergence, and from there major sell. However, as we are bouncing off overbought conditions from the all the higher time frame, there is always the possibility for something reversed. The the scenario here is a zigzag two waves down. Followed by either two waves up or a range here, and and then if we follow the breakout below this structure, that should be a green light for another portion to the downside. And if that happens, I would anticipate the dollar the dollar sorry the gold to make its push. We have a beautiful rising supportive line. We have broken resistance that acts support. We have next broken resistance that now acts as support. This could be a phenomenal zone for this drop down if the sellers manage to take the control with the zigzag setup as I just explained that. That's what I see on the gold. Let me know what do you think about this one in the comments. That's pretty much it for this week. Straightforward with all the opportunities. As always, I hope you find value in these ideas. Analysis and the trading opportunities. Please hit the like button if you do. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities. Enjoy the offers we have with 8K Broker or directly from Home Trader Club. We with the links below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I wish you wonderful trading week ahead. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now. Bye.
