📊 Forex Weekly Forecast | May 5, 2025 | EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD - by Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. As always, before we start with the charts and all the trading opportunities, I would like to take the opportunity and to say big thanks to Eightcap Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the special offers we have with Eightcap Broker. Including the access to Home Trader Club, all the trading strategies, all the trading systems, private mentoring sessions, and more, please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first one for today, EUR/USD. A quick follow-up on what we discussed on the last weekly forecast, which of course you can see as always in our channel. Our trading plan was to see the euro-dollar making this ABCD correction. This was one of the scenarios we analyzed, and from there, very likely further continuation to the upside. So as you can see, the euro-dollar is following the waves as expected. The biggest question is, is it ready? So I don't think the move down is over. I do think there is further bigger room to the downside before the buyers will be back to the game. And therefore, if we go back to the 4-hour chart, we can see that after completing the 3 waves to the upside, we now got the conditions of bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD and now ABCD corrective movement. But Why don't I think it's over? Because most of these cases, the euro-dollar should follow this Fibonacci, should again in most cases clean the 100% Fibonacci and ideally 161.8% Fibonacci. Now in that case, if we plot regular Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour chart trending structure we got here, we will see that the 100% extension is next to 38.2%. Retracement, and that's significant. And the 161.8 is next to the 50% Fibonacci. That's what makes me think that the current developing waves should push the prices a bit further down. Besides all that, we have this rising supportive line which we need to pay attention to, and of course this big range here of prices, uh, most recent As you can see here, a zone. Let me just draw here some circle, a strong resistance of the, of this area, and of course the demand area where the buyers took control, um, on this uptrend. So I believe that this zone is the key zone where we are heading on the euro-dollar. If we also take a look on the numbers, percentage change So for that, we go to our members area in Home Trader Club. You get the market strength snapshot and the EUR/USD. We can see that after a massive monthly percentage change to the upside, the last 7 days are in the corrective mode, which again hints we are still in corrective mode and the numbers line up perfectly with what we see on the chart. Also, we got the EUR/USD trade sell here aiming this first target zone. During the week, consider the first target clearly reached before the euro makes the bounce, and now very likely is rebuilding the next move to the downside. So that's how I see the euro-dollar. What are your thoughts? Share with us in the comments. The next one is pound-dollar. A quick follow-up to the previous week discussion we were following. for ABCD correction or some range before the continuation to the upside. The plan did not change. The only thing that the GBPUSD managed to retest the previous high, make even another false breakout in that case before making the corrective movement. The plan does not change. We are either after ABCD correction here, or as explained before, we should see the GBPUSD moving in some sort of a range before the continuation. So pretty much similar to the scenario of the EURUSD which we analyzed before, I don't think the move down is over. I believe the GBPUSD should offer a bit more to the downside, ideally to the level where it will be able to establish a bullish hidden divergence. What do I mean by that? We do have sequence of higher highs, higher lows, which is a classical trend— bullish trending structure. Buyers are in control. We want to see the price dropping down and the buyers making higher lows on the chart versus lower lows on the MACD histogram. If that scenario happens, I would be definitely looking at that zone to go and basically look for the next buys. I believe that for the long run, the The pound-dollar deal is not over, and after making this bottom we just discussed, pay attention also to this rising supportive line and the moving averages of 50 and 200 moving average. I believe from there pound-dollar is after the buys. If we take a look on the numbers inside our members area, pound-dollar again after one very bullish month. The last seven days and the last twenty-four hours are negative, which means we are still in a corrective mode. And that's what makes me think that pound-dollar drop is not over. There is more to come before it finds a bottom. Also, if you have the KTLI indicator of ours, if not, you can find the link below this video in the description. Pay attention to these daily and weekly levels. A lot of key zones. Are on the horizon. Right now, this daily zone is active as a support, but after it is expected to be broken, these levels here are the next key levels on the go, and I will definitely be paying attention to them as potential targets in the journey to the downside. Our next one, USDJPY, a quick follow-up to what we discussed on the last week. Our plan was on the short term After this drop down to get the rally. As you can see, the plan follows absolutely to perfection, I would say, cleaning the 145 round number. And the biggest question is what is next? So I don't think the move down to— on the long term is over. I believe that this rally should be for a sell, and here is what I would be paying attention to. Broken support become resistance. We have a big range here, right? As you can see, uh, consolidation before sellers took control. We have the meeting point of 250 moving averages, dynamic ones, and of course the falling resistance line. Significant area. I would also be paying attention to, to this potentially to form bearish hidden divergence. Lower highs on the price versus higher highs on the MACD histogram. If these conditions happen, I believe dollar yen is for a sell. And on the lower time frame, what I would like to see is the dollar yen come to complete this rally. One hour chart to form its divergence, four hour chart to form its divergence, and from there look for. The sell. Meanwhile, on the short term, this bullish pressure could remain and continue until these sell conditions are fully cooked, are fully prepared, and then the sellers stepping in the game. And in terms of numbers, we are looking to join the trend. Why? Because the 1-month is massively negative. Last 7 days are very positive, as we saw the rally, right? But Again, with the longer view, we are still bearish. So this correction is very good, very promising. And once these conditions are cooked, we are after a sell here. That's how I see dollar yen. And you let me know in the comments. By the way, also very interesting thing to pay attention to on the dollar yen: why currently buyers are in control? Take a look on this Bollinger Band. Where we are riding for more than 20 candles on the lower band. After such conditions, usually the opposite band is retested. We saw that happening here where the opposite band was retested. We saw it after this major drop where much more than the opposite band was retested, but usually it goes at least to the opposite band. So that's why I believe that currently we are still in corrective mode. But soon sellers should step in the game. And the final one for us this week, the gold. We were talking about on our last weekly forecast— once again, you can watch it in our channel anytime— our expectation was for the gold to make this final push back to this area. That's it, game completed. The question is what is next. So the dollar— the gold is still in the corrective moment where it is bouncing off overbought conditions on the higher time frames. Now we have beautiful evening star candle pattern here, and I believe that is a sign That at least on the short term, the bearish pressure is on. I don't think the bullish cycle completed. I think on the short term, after some bullish bounces, we should be able to see the gold making one more drop. The way it develops, I would not be surprised if we will be retesting this big range and the dynamic 50 and the 200 moving average that were not retested for a long while. And that's what makes me think that still on the shorter term rallies are likely to take place, but I would be looking to sell them further. So on the 4-hour chart, we have 2 waves— let's just remove these levels— with 2 waves down. So any correction here is ABCD or a range, and we should see the gold pushing further to the downside. So for me, at least on the short term, it is still sell the rallies. And I expect the rallies, but sell them afterwards is the plan. Your thoughts are very welcome in the comments. That's it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in the trading opportunities. If you do, please don't forget to hit the like button. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Thank you for watching. Best to you and yours. 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