Forex Weekly Forecast (S&P500, GBPJPY, GBPAUD) - 30 January 2023

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to my weekly forex forecast. In today's video, I would like to share with you three interesting opportunities I found. That will be the S&P 500, that will be the pound Aussie, and it will be the pound. But before I go to the charts, a quick request for your support and your help. If you find these videos useful, if you appreciate these videos and the trading opportunities, please hit the like button below this video, subscribe to the channel, and welcome to our amazing community. Leave some comment in the comment section below this video and feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching it. Now let's talk about the first one. That would be the S&P 500. So it might look like the— all the bad things we experienced in 2022 and the fear of recession and so on and so on, like way behind us. Well, I'm not so sure about it because usually, uh, such rallies could provide some traps. Such rallies like we experienced at the beginning of the year. I don't say it cannot continue, it definitely can, but I would be very, very, very skeptical. And, uh, from the technical reasons, here is why. So I'll start with the weekly chart just to show what did we have here. So the bearish move was a classical trending structure where we got 3 lower highs, lower lows lined up, ending with a bullish divergence where the market did the lower lows versus higher lows on the indicator created for us the pullback. Usually these pullbacks, these corrections happen in 2 waves or a range, and this is exactly what we are getting. The question is always up to where the 2, uh, these, uh, 2 waves will take us to, and usually the answer is towards the next important levels. What are the important levels we have here? So take a look on this volume profile indicator and clearly see that there is a massive volume here, and the next one is slightly higher right here. You can see the peak. Now the interesting part, when we go to the daily chart, this will start to fit with our supply areas. Okay, I'll go different color to show you what I mean. So take a look what happens here. Okay, all this, all this, the high, the high, right, and the broken support that behaves as a resistance, and the previous high right on the volume zone create a classical potential rejection area. With that being said Let's bring the next ones. So the next levels are slightly higher. This is the last high here of the bearish move, as which behaves as a resistance and a potential supply area as well. It fits also in the previous high, and on this ABCD correction upside, this high also creates a classical supply zone. So these are the 2 levels where I will be looking for my sell opportunities. Besides that, if I take it to the statistics, here are several important levels to pay attention to. So we are right next to the beginning of the month. The 1st and the 3rd create for us several days where a peak could be created, and that's also, as you remember, fits In the zone we just saw. So if we create a peak in this area and bearish evidences start to appear, this could be indeed a great opportunity to look for the sells. If these days would not create any bearish rejection, then remember the next levels. Let's just put it here. Next key zone for us. Okay, and let's go back to the. Statistics, and this is where you would see that, right? So imagine there is no rejection and the price simply takes us further. Here are the next important levels and dates to pay attention to. We have anything in between 13 to 16 to complete a top, and after calling the previous top right on the 13s, which is right here, and creating a massive Um, reversal. That's— these 2 days would be definitely something to pay attention to. So it might happen and trigger this week from the first zone we just saw, okay, which is right on the beginning of the month, uh, the surrounding dates around the 1st to the 3rd. If not, I will be definitely paying attention to 1613 period to look for the tops. And the most important thing is to get the rejections. What sort of rejections can we look— we can start looking for bearish divergences. For example, look at this slowdown currently building up here. The market is making the higher highs and the slowdown starts to appear where the MACD histogram makes the lower highs. RSI joins the party as well. So with this slowdown happening and the divergences building up, the first zone right next to the days we discussed could be the place where we start get this correction back to the massive volume zone, back to the previous supportive areas and rising trend lines. So this is my view on the S&P 500. What do you think? Are we going for a complete new high, or is that time that the rally of January as a beginning of a new year and the vibes of a new year would be over and we are back to the bearish trend? Share with us your thoughts and what would you anticipate in the comment section below this video. The next pair on my list would be the pound Aussie. So the pound Aussie is making a very interesting structure after two classical waves to the upside. Which were blocked with this bearish divergence, the market reacts with 2 bearish waves. Why do I like the way that the current structure is building? The current structure and, and the levels are building together is because we have some massive demand area on the way here and all this zone. This from my point of view, is a classical area for potential reversals. The lows of the previous down move behave as a classical demand area and could act as supportive zone. And the most important low— it's a small low, but on the very first one of the bullish reaction— is right here. So that creates for us several important levels on the way. And here is what I love to see. Here there is a potential bullish divergence building up on the MACD, both histogram and moving averages. We need the histogram to tick and the moving average to tick upside to complete the bullish divergence, but it's definitely a potential. RSI divergence is also there. While the market is making the lower lows, the indicators building a potential bullish divergence. I don't know to predict if it will be completed this divergence, but it's definitely something to pay attention to. And if we plot Fibonacci here, you would see also 2 key levels. The first one is the 100 where we're currently at— sorry, 61.8— and the next one is the 100 right next to the lows we discussed before. Okay, so it's surrounding these very area also with Fibonacci expansions, classical zone. So what I want to see there is the price to reject. How? By completing— this would be the ideal scenario, let me just show it quickly— by completing the low here. Like, this would be the ideal scenario: make the low, lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the indicator to build Could be the histogram, moving averages. Likely to assume that RSI will join the party as well. And from there, I'll be looking for the price rejection. Okay, so I will want to see this top created and the rallies start to happen. Several candles start to make the bullish evidences, provide us bullish evidences that the buyers are in. False breakout is a classical option. Okay, so we can have here a low and a fake low. So attempt to make a new low which retraces above the broken— it— yeah, the broken low before to complete a bullish, um, a bullish false breakout. So that would be the signs I would be looking at the pound Aussie. What do you think about this one? How do you like the pound Aussie? Let me know in the comment section below. But before that, also statistics. How without statistics, what days should we focus on? And for that, let's go to the statistics indicator, the one that I love to do to get my verifications for the numbers. It's look at that. First, fourth, seventh create for us a massive first week where concentration of the first week where that with high probability the market creates bottoms historically. Okay, so this together with the levels that we just saw could provide really good opportunities to look for bullish evidences. Don't think that if the level is reached, the market must react. Very important to remember that we react to the price act. So wait for the price to move, wait for the bullish signs to appear, only then consider your buy opportunities. Okay, just attacking a level because it's reached could be amazing opportunity if the market reacts to your direction, but also could be too early, which would bring unnecessary losses. Now that's something you will want to avoid. Now why specifically I love to pay attention in that case to the beginning of the week? Okay, the beginning of the month actually based on these days because historically look on these bottoms here when they were created. They are created I think and yeah this was right on the four. Here we go right on the four. Yep it was rounding since right but holding this zone holding this zone right and the rallies. Take place from there. So this— these days together with the levels could definitely start and provide some bullish opportunities that we are looking for. And the final one I would like to share with you would be the pound yen. So all the pound yen, we have several very interesting conditions here. The first thing is of course the false break of the massive fake high that was created on the weekly chart, bouncing right off the 170 psychological zone. The price tried to create a high, failed, as you can see, retraced below the previous high, completed a fake breakout. Bearish divergence on the moving averages of the MACD gave a green light that the buyer's power is off and sellers take the control. Since then, we've had a massive reaction to the downside, which usually happens to continue in 2 waves or at least some sort of a range. So sell the rallies for the longer term is still my plan according to this analysis. And when I take it to the daily chart, here is where the fun begins because we have 2 key levels in play. So first one is the broken resistance support that is now behaving as resistance and this massive volume Area, classical conditions. Okay, the next one would be the supply area that we have next to the previous highs, right next to the volume area. Besides that, we have a falling resistance line surrounding this zone. Okay, so that's these are the two zones I will be looking for my bearish opportunities. The first one is currently here, and as long as it rejects, the market could actually start creating here the signs, you know, the turnarounds from the higher highs to the lower lows and then lower highs, and provide the bearish opportunity. So with these 2 levels in mind, let's take a look on the daily— on the 4-hour chart, what signs we currently build up. So the market is attempting to make a top here with a bearish divergence. Okay, it's right next to the resistance and the volumes we saw before. So if the market starts from here to make the structure of the lower highs, lower lows, right, with the pullbacks, we really can look for these sell opportunities. And the good part here is if the weekly— when the weekly second wave will build up, uh, the potential here is huge because the previous supportive zones are yet to be retested. If the sellers manage to take the control, that could provide a really massive opportunity. And that's why I will be paying attention to these 2 levels. If the first zone does not manage to hold— first one we just saw, right? And the price simply climbs to, uh, above that, no problem. We are waiting until the next key level would be reached, and in our case, the next supply areas with the volume zone. And remember the falling resistance line. From there, it might be even sweeter. So again, look for your evidences, look for the price to reject and start the reversal. Don't put your bets on a price. Again, it could be very sweet if the market really reacts, but we cannot anticipate the market to react before the signs really take place. So let the market reject, let the reversals happen. Candle patterns, divergences, false breakout— any of the bearish signs you are using in your trading any of the reversal signs would be a fantastic opportunity to look and join the sales. So that's pretty much it for this video. I hope you find it useful and you like the ideas. Let me know what do you think about them and if you have anything else to share with others in the comment section below. I also invite you to join us in our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to the best of our offer the things we have for you— the full courses, full trading courses for beginners, for advanced, and many more amazing educational content, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, our fantastic community, and much, much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. So once again, thanks for your time. Best to you and yours, and I wish you wonderful trading week ahead. I'll see I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye.