👉 Forex Weekly Forecast Sept 15–19 | EURUSD, USDJPY & GOLD (XAUUSD) Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to another weekly Forex forecast. In today's video, one of the biggest anticipated weeks for traders is here. 17th of September 2025 is the date where the Federal Reserve is expected to start and cutting its rates, maybe even announce or even just give a hint that more cuts are coming this year or at the beginning of the next year. And that's what the market is waiting for. And if the Fed will disappoint, the market will start favoring the dollar again, if not on this run, on the coming months. So this is why the market is, uh, awaiting this week so much To see what sort of approach path the Federal Reserve will actually choose, hawkish or not. Let's begin. Before we start, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to Eight Cup Broker for. For supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers Eightcap Broker has for our community, including the access up to 1 full year to Home Trader Club, private mentoring sessions, all the trading systems, all the tools from the marketplace, and more, please refer to the link below this video in the description. Let's start with the euro dollar. Last week We were talking about the scenario where the euro managed to complete a final run and from there make the move to the downside. So the trigger for that that we expected was the break of this falling trend line or this ABCD line, right? Which as we can see managed to happen right. Here at the zone. So what is coming next? As we can see, the breakout happened, but since then, flat. Nothing significant happens on the euro dollar, and that's where it's a way of the market to slow down the things before the rates and before the next waves will form. So what are the two scenarios? We will be following on the euro dollar here. The ideal scenario, of course, the breakout momentum, uh, holds and the euro makes the rally towards the 119, 120 area and maybe even beyond that, closer to the 122, 123 peak that we have. This would be simply ideal technical condition because when that completes That's where the euro dollar is very likely to establish its next bearish divergence, and from there some sellers to take place. Now that, that's a classical ideal bullish scenario, but— and usually before big, uh, big, big news there is always a but— the market prepares the possibility for something else. Most of The traders expect that. Everybody was anticipating the rate cuts. So now the market is in a position where will the Federal Reserve actually give something back to the market and fulfill its destiny and the expectation of the market with more and more and more cuts this year and the beginning of next year? Or will the Federal Reserve disappoint the market? And the market is prepared for this scenario as well. Let's talk about the how. We currently see the euro building up 2 waves down, followed instantly by, as you can see here, 2 waves up. Right now, the euro is holding this strong supply zone. Breaking above that, we already discussed what will happen. But let's imagine the scenario that the Federal Reserve does disappoint and the euro goes down breaking below the recent lows and placing itself below this volume profile-based zone. In that case, if that happens, that would trigger a zigzag breakout. 2 waves down, 2 waves up, break above the rising supportive line and the horizontal supportive line, and we can talk about selling the rallies. If that scenario follows, the euro should be able to complete the second leg down. Aiming or heading once again to the area of 114, uh, supply zone, as you can see, and the volume profile area, maybe even beyond that. In that case, closer to the 111. If I have to give probabilities to the bullish and the bearish scenarios, the bullish one enjoys at the moment some more significant probability. I would give it 70-30, maybe even beyond that, maybe even 75.25 to the bullish side. However, we have to remember the market does not care what we want, the market does not care what we wish. The market will do what the market has to do, and we as traders have to be prepared for that and react to the way the price acts. And let's go to the market strength snapshot in Home Trader Club. And as we can see, the euro dollar is Placing itself in a very comfortable bullish condition. One month, seven days, and the twenty-four hours are all bullish, supporting mostly the bullish view. Okay, so the numbers currently lined up perfectly with the breakout, and yet there is one person, actually two—the Federal Reserve and Trump—that can change any picture. With a tweet or with a press conference, and that's what we will be looking for this Wednesday. After that, or the bulls will celebrate, or the bears would be big time back in the game. Next one is the dollar yen. Last week we analyzed the scenario which we want to follow, and that's the break of this trend line with. The break of this supportive zone. So as you can see, like most of the market, so did dollar-yen. It is moving flat, preparing the ground for the next waves. I still expect the dollar-yen to go down, and there are 2 main cases, uh, scenarios I would say, for that to happen. Scenario 1, by the way, I want to quickly remind you why at all am I After sell here, I believe that we are now in the corrective structure of this wave, and as soon as that's over, then we might be exposed to the dollar yen making another rally. But I don't think that the corrective movement is over. I believe we are still under the corrective structure. Therefore, for me, it is under the bearish pressure, and the ideal case scenario here. If the dollar-yen can actually make this move down to complete the final low and the ABCD correction. So with this idea in mind, there are 2 scenarios I am following for the dollar-yen. Scenario 1, exactly as explained in the last week, that this is the break below this, uh, zone. Let me close this one. The table, okay? Break below this zone and the rising supportive line with lower lows on the chart to gain some momentum and synchronize the mathematical view from the indicators and the price action. And we can talk about sell day rallies, expecting the dollar yen to deliver to the downside. The second scenario, which is also very possible, is the dollar yen actually surprising first of all. By making its rally and get closer to the top of the ongoing weekly range. Because in that case, I believe there is a huge zone, supply zone here through here. We are talking about the 151 up to 154-ish. At that area, if happens, we might see the dollar-yen developing some bearish divergence there. On the supply zone on the top of the weekly range, and the sell from there is going to be even more significant. So right now, as you can see, dollar yen, like most of the majors, is moving flat, preparing the ground for something big to happen. And one of these two scenarios, from my point of view, is the The next development, wave development for this pair. It might take few weeks, of course, right? Several several weeks to go and develop. But I believe that we are heading there where these moves will actually start to happen. And let's go back to the market trend snapshot in Home Trader Club. And similar to the euro dollar, which was fully bullish, dollar yen is under a strong bearish pressure. Uh, the sellers are still here, the pressure is still there, and there is a great chance that the sellers will actually be able to take the control as expected and push the price down again. If that happens, I believe we are going to below 140. So definitely a lot to watch for. The final one for today would be the gold. Last week we were talking about the possibility of the— sorry, in here— of the possibility of gold making the final rallies until it starts making some false breakout and then some sell-off. As I presented also in the last week, we are on extreme overbought conditions, which simply means The party is very likely coming to the end. No one knows to predict when will that happen, not me, not anyone. At the moment, the gold is on steroids. Clear, obvious run. At the moment, it doesn't look like the party is over, but as we know, the trend is your friend until the end. And I believe that this end is building up. I'm not trying to predict when it's gonna happen. But I have no doubt it will with all the overbought conditions we saw on the monthly chart and the developing weekly bearish divergence. As we can— I said developing because we still need the second peak to form. It's not there yet, right? But it looks like the next several weeks are going to be developing that bearish move on the gold. And the best way to time that is to go to the lower time frame like the daily or the 4-hour chart. The chart and look for the waves formation. The ideal case scenario is of course false breakouts, fake highs, uh, counter instantly by, uh, um, by retraces and drop below the broken highs mean that the buyers are losing their grip, sellers are trying to reject, and many times that is actually the beginning of the correction or sometimes even trend changes. So if that happens, that would be the ideal scenario. Of course, we get fake highs followed by lower highs on the moving average of the MACD and lower highs on the RSI, and we can talk about the reversals and the sells. So for me, uh, currently I am after selling new highs as they form. But keep in mind, there could be alternative scenario. And the alternative scenario is called a zigzag. That means if we face some zigzag, 2 waves down with 2 waves up or a range breaking to the downside, and then I believe that gold opens up its doors for the correction towards this zone, this range before the next wave of buyers to control. And we are talking about $3,575. 35-ish down to 35.05 approximately. So we are talking about this zone down to these zones, 35.10. Okay, um, so that's the 2 scenarios I will be following on gold for the coming week. And once again, technical preparation, uh, should be before such news, uh, very specific. Okay, why? So you don't find yourself chasing after what, what the market does. When you have a specific plan, you know how to react to that specifically. Okay, and with the main news or major news to be published as we expect this, this week, these triggers could actually start to build up and happen. That's pretty much it for this week. As always, I hope you find value in the trading opportunities and that you are mainly ready for the coming week, the very anticipated week on the market. If you find value in this video and the trading opportunities and you enjoy the content from the channel, please don't forget to hit the like button and to consider to subscribe to our channel with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, and enjoy the access to our full comprehensive courses, all the comprehensive media zone, real-time trading education and real-time trading opportunities. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I wish you wonderful trading week ahead. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.