📊 Forex Weekly Forecast (Sept 29, 2025) | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold & Bitcoin Analysis

What's up guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to another weekly forex forecast. Before the chart, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to Eightcap Broker for supporting our community. And I want to remind you that all our offers we have for our members with Eightcap Broker are available for you below this video in the description, and that includes The access to all of our projects. EUR/USD, the first one for this week. Quick follow-up on what we discussed in the previous week. So our trading plan was to see the EUR/USD continuing its move down Uh, basically to around the previous lows, uh, where from the expectation, um, that we've had that it will start bouncing before further move to the downside. So let's see how that develops and what would I pay attention to in terms of the waves. So on the weekly chart, we are overriding on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles. Last time it happened was basically here, where from we got a significant retrace, and after that the whole trend changed. So I don't know to predict what will be, uh, at the moment of course, uh, what will be the outcome of the next rally if they take place. But I don't think this rally is over. I do think that after the correction which currently happens, the euro should ideally make one more run until it will complete a divergence. So I don't think that the bullish run is over. I just think it's on the short term still happening. So keeping that idea in mind, going down to the daily chart, we had the double divergence here between the first and the second peak and then the second and the third peak. While the market made the higher highs, the MACD made lower highs. Usually that's a sign that a correction is coming in play, and that means we could expect either ABCD or a range as long as the recent peak holds. And if we break down the shorter time frame waves, that's exactly what happens here. The euro breaks the trend line And not just that, it makes 2 waves to the downside, which is usually the beginning of either a zigzag or triple wave to the downside. It's also breaking this low, which is another significant sign. So the way I see that, I believe that the EUR/USD, as long as of course for the bigger view holds below this low, sell the rallies is the correct plan here. As a zigzag, we would want to see either ABCD or a range before the continuation. And if the euro-dollar completes triple wave down first of all, then I expect it to be pretty much somewhere to around these levels. Then ideally complete some bullish divergence and make a bigger correction. So for me, basically sell the rallies. Is the plan here. A couple of levels to pay attention to: broken support becomes a resistance, last high acts as a supply here of this uptrend, and of course the last high of the downtrend. So this is the key zone, and I believe from there, as long as it holds, the euro is still under bearish pressure. Pound-dollar is our next pair. Let's quickly follow up on our discussion from the previous week. So what we were analyzing there, that we expect the GBPUSD to break down the trend line and get the rally before further continuation down. So why do I believe we are under the corrective structure at the moment? So the GBPUSD had triple wave on the daily chart— pardon, on the daily chart. With ending divergence, usually this is a sign of a correction coming, and correction could be either ABCD or a range. I think if it is the ABCD, that then it means we still have to see that completing itself, and if it is a range, then we are expected to move inside the range for some time before the market will be actually ready. To make the move and make the breakout further to the upside, most likely. So keeping that logic in mind, we did have a zigzag on the daily chart: two waves down followed by two waves up and a break below the trend line. Now we are below this volume profile based balance zone. This is our KTLI indicator, which indicates we have a key level here full of volume. And as long as this area holds, our plan here is set. So from my point of view on the 4-hour chart, pretty similar to what happens with the euro dollar. We did have the 2 waves down, so most likely the scenarios to follow are the next ones. We either get the 2 waves up or some sort of a range before the continuation. Or we complete, or we complete another move to the downside, complete 3 waves to the downside, some bullish divergence here, lower lows on the chart with higher lows on the MACD, and from there the beginning of a deeper correction. Since this low is now broken, there are a couple of Key levels on the go. The major one is the big swing high we see here around the 135.70 up to 136, and of course the broken support became a resistance. These are the two key levels, and as long as they hold, I believe the pound dollar is still sell the rallies. Gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold. What else can we say about this? Gold on steroids. It's a major run and it's still creating all-time highs. Uh, I mentioned last week, and it's important to bring it, uh, um, now again bring it up here, does not matter how many amazing technical reversal signs there are based on indicators. The only sign that matters is the price action. Indicators indicate, price dictates. Remember that. That's why the combination of the two is amazing and why it's so important to bring it here. Because I mentioned on the last week, several weeks, that we are riding on clean overbought conditions here on the monthly chart as well as the upper Bollinger Band. And that situation is similar to the weekly chart where we also see a potential bearish divergence. I say potential because we don't have a second peak yet here. That means we could see second peak forming yet, or gold would break it and there will be no divergence. Both scenarios are absolutely doable, and that's why I bring it up again. This is only indication. So last week we were talking about following the second false breakout here. We got one false breakout, and as we said, if we complete second false breakout and then we flip the lower lows, we can talk about the sales. As we can see, never happened just yet. And that's why once again I want to say, guys, always remember, price is what dictates indicators. With all the respect to them, all of the indicators, their job is to indicate. Remember that. So what is next with the gold? There are a couple of scenarios I follow. So one ideal one is if we complete the false breakout, the second false breakout, maybe even more than one, and complete the next divergence. This, of course, would be the same sign as we wanted to see from the last week. Break below the lows, and then we will be looking to sell the rallies. Optional is the completion of the false breakout connecting these highs. That's also a possible technical scenario, and for that, if we do not have one more horizontal false breakout, then follow for the waves. 2 waves down followed by 2 waves up or a range. And if the breakout follows, that gives you the trigger for the Zigzag, and then we can talk about sell opportunities. But once again, the most important thing here is as long as reversal signs did not change, as long as the sequence of higher highs, higher lows is not broken, and you do not have the lower highs, lower lows now, there is nothing happening, and the trend did not change despite indication. Remember that patience is key when it comes to trend changes, when it comes to new trend opportunities. Final one for today, the Bitcoin. Last week we expected to see the second push to the downside. My view did not change. I believe Bitcoin is still under the correction here, and here is why. On the weekly chart, let's remove these lines. On the weekly chart, we face the divergence, which usually means we are building up A correction which could be either ABCD or some prolonged range before the market decides anything else. On the daily chart, we got this divergence: higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the moving average of the MACD, then lower lows on the chart with lower lows on the histogram of the MACD, retrace to the upside, and from there further continuation. So So even with the daily at the end of the 3 waves, I do expect the ABCD to complete, or at least continuation inside this range, which basically to me means that I don't think the bearish pressure is over, and every rally that took place here should deliver further move to the downside. Even on the 4-hour chart, as the waves happening We have broken resistance that now acts as support. Last high that acts as a supply, of course, that corresponds to the previously holding support that now acts as resistance. It's around 113,000-114,000. So every retrace to that area, I believe the pressure is still bearish, and I expect the Bitcoin to continue and to push down. Despite the expectation from the Bitcoin to continue and break all-time highs. I'm not sure, I might be wrong. I'm not sure that the time is right for Bitcoin to break all-time highs. What do you think about this one? When do you think, and do you actually think Bitcoin is going to $150,000 this year? Let me know in the comments. That's it for this video. Thanks for watching. As always, I hope you find value in the opportunities and that you enjoy the video. If you do, please hit the like button and please consider to subscribe below this video with the subscribe button. Enjoy all of our trading opportunities we share here in the channel and all our educational content. Also, I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. And enjoy all the courses and the real-time education and opportunities we share there during the week. The link to join is below this video in the description. Thanks for watching once again. Best to you and yours. Good trading. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.