Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold for May 26-30, 2025. He maps two scenarios per pair using ABCD ranges, divergence, and Fibonacci levels, then translates them into trades: sell rallies into range breakdowns or buy dips in higher-high structures. The U.S. core PCE release could shift EUR/USD direction.
Chapters
Hey guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. As always, before we begin with the charts and all the trading opportunities, I want to take the opportunity and to thank Eightcap Broker for supporting our community, and you can enjoy all our absolutely phenomenal offers with Adka Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, all the trading systems, the strategies, our marketplace, and private mentoring sessions. Please refer to the link below this video in the description. EUR/USD is our first one for this week. Quick follow-up on our discussion from the last weekly forecast: we expected to see ABCD or a range here. Something like that before the euro will take its next step to the downside. Now here is the thing: the ABCD or range in that case is building up and so far is holding this key from my point of view with these highs. As long as they hold, the opportunity to the downside still exists, which means if the euro managed to break down these this range, sell the rallies then can be a really great opportunity. However, as you can see, the euro also is trying to make 3 higher highs, higher lows. In that case, if it managed to continue and break the peaks we just saw, then— and of course, if this climbs higher, basically what will happen, we will get the structure of higher highs on the chart And the indicator will line up, and in that case we should be looking to buy the dips on the euro dollar, expecting that. Let's go back to the daily chart here, expecting that to make a final run until this bearish divergence would be completed on the daily chart. And if we take a look on the numbers. This is our market trend snapshot in Home Trader Club. So if we examine the euro-dollar, we would see that despite the monthly is still under the negative area, the last 7 days close to 2% or above 1.5%. That's a very strong shift to the bullish direction within the last 7 days and the last 24 hours also close to 1% change. So the momentum there is still bullish on a shorter term. However, The monthly is still negative, and this week we would see the core PCE index report in the U.S., which could give the trigger for the coming week after that where the euro dollar is heading. Is it going to complete the final run here and the divergence before the next big move down will take place, or is it going to pick? Here reverse and to complete the classical structure of the ABCD. Both scenarios at the moment are very possible, and that's why I want to clearly see what will happen here. Are we breaking the range and then it becomes sell the rallies, or are we climbing above the peaks? Divergence is gone, and then buy the dips. Becomes the trading plan. That's how I see the EUR/USD. Our next one is the GBP/USD and a quick follow-up on what we discussed on the last week. One of the scenarios we were talking about will— to see the GBP/USD making the final rally until this divergence would be completed and from there look for a longer sell. So the GBP/USD managed to make this run And it completes the rally by making the 3 higher highs, higher lows. I was expecting to see if it will be making a range and break. I would be expecting to see another push down, but we never got the break below this range. It climbs to the upside, and so far the momentum is there and the buyers are in control. What is coming next for this pair from my point of view? At least as for now, until the reversal signs would be given, pound-dollar is still buy the dips. I believe that we should see some peak during the week, get some retraces, right? And then another final rally to take place until once again this daily divergence would be completed. Now a great question here: up to where could it go? And for that. What we will be doing here, let's plot Fibonacci extension to see the levels. Okay, so this is the first leg. As you can see, we cross above the 61.8. And if we plot Fibonacci also on the second leg, here is the interesting part. We got, as you can see here, this is the key zone from 61 through 100% Fibonacci extension of both legs. This is the key zone for us. It's anywhere in between the 136 to closer to 139, a bit wide range on the daily chart, but this is the area where we are very likely heading. And from there, I believe the pound-dollar is going to make a significant retrace, uh, later on this year. So, uh, on the shorter-term opportunities, if we go to the 4-hour or the 1-hour chart, we We can clearly see bullish price structure. There are really no signs against at the moment. So any retrace here during the week should open the doors for a further rally to take place. For me, it is buy the dips. And a quick observation on the numbers again in our Markets Trends Snapshot in Home Trader Club members area. We can see 3 different time frames are fully lined up, which means the buyers are in control. 1.5% on the monthly scale, 1.7% on the last 7-day scale, and 24 hours close to 1%. The numbers are significant in terms of the buyers. Buy the dips is my plan. Next one is the dollar, uh, yen, and a quick follow-up from the last week discussion. We were looking for buy opportunities from this zone. Clearly we can see the buyers failed to take the control. And the biggest question here is what will happen in that case if this zone does not really provide any buyers? What will happen next? And here is the very interesting scenario which I want to bring your attention to. According to the weekly time frame, I believe we are still bearish and dollar yen should complete these two waves, maybe even beyond. So the way I see that for the longer run, it is bearish. On the daily chart, we also faced a bearish hidden divergence, which means sellers for the long run in control. I wanted to see something like that before the next sell, but we can see that the buyers are not in the game. So what is coming next? As we can see right now, dollar yen is making 3 lower highs, lower lows. This is a— it stands for a bearish trending structure. If it managed to clean this low by the beginning of the week and this divergence would be gone, then this becomes a classical sell the rallies opportunity. We have some significant zone here. Any retrace closer to there should give a great opportunity for a sell, and we have this highs here as a second key zone to watch for the sells. So for me, USDJPY is sell the rallies. And the final one for today, gold. Following our discussion from the last week, we wanted to see ABCD correction pretty much similar to the EURUSD, and from there take it to the next portion to the downside. What happens here, we are in the corrective structure yet, but similar to the EUR/USD, we are building it now in 3 waves to the upside. So the question here is, what is coming next? So I want to go quickly to the higher time frame just to remind you we are still around, uh, let's take it here overbought conditions on the monthly chart and on the weekly chart as well, where it managed to start some sort of a bounce. This bounce was definitely not significant, uh, and it happened to be though, despite being not significant, in 2 waves. Let me just draw it here. In waves on the daily chart. Very important to mention the daily chart did not yet manage to complete its own divergence and then fully line up with the overbought conditions from the higher time frames and this is still a very significant, a very high probability or significant sign, technical sign. Which brings the big, big, big probability here that if it manages to break up this ranging structure, flag, you can call it a range, whatever, ABCD, doesn't matter in that case. If it manages to climb above that, buy the dips could be a really good shorter opportunity here. And why is that so? Because if we go back to the 4-hour chart, I'll draw this line once again. If we go to the 4-hour chart, we can see it is making the 3 higher highs, higher lows. If it managed to hold above that, right, buy these dips become a great opportunity. On the other hand, uh, because we are facing the overbought conditions from the higher time frame, if gold managed to break below this range and start making the lower lows Then in that case, we could be looking sell the rallies on gold versus the last peak to be created before the range would be broken. But I would be clearly paying attention to these two scenarios. As I mentioned before, we have some data this week that should be decisive where it is heading from here. I believe the trigger would be given in the coming 2 weeks. We are either going for the next high with a very high probability to complete the daily divergence, and if it doesn't do so and manage to hold this falling resistance line and the supply area here, if it managed to do so and start breaking the range and make the lower lows, sell the rallies would become my plan. And that's— these are the 2 scenarios I would be following on gold. That's it for this video. Thanks for watching. If you find value in this one, please don't forget to hit the like button. And if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. I also want to invite you to our trading family, Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities shared with you in our dedicated group. The link is below this video in the description. Thanks for watching, best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now. Bye.
