In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews four major instruments—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Gold (XAU/USD)—using a blend of technical analysis and recent macro fundamentals. For EUR/USD he highlights a bearish divergence, a custom Bollinger Band duplication zone between a supply area and broken support, and outlines two scenarios: a two‑wave down move leading to a possible 1.14‑1.13 target, or a range/ABCD correction that could open the door to 1.14‑1.17. For GBP/USD he points out a bearish MACD divergence, expects a corrective ABCD or range before a bullish resurgence, targeting 1.37‑1.41 and possibly higher. USD/JPY is examined through a strong supply zone, volume‑profile KTLI level, and emerging bearish divergence, with short‑term sell‑the‑rally ideas and longer‑term range‑break expectations. Gold is described as overbought, sitting on the upper Bollinger Band with bearish pressure; a break below recent lows could trigger a sell‑off toward the rising trend line. Throughout, Ribakov stresses classic reversal signals—divergence, fake highs, trend‑line breaks—and promotes Home Trader Club’s courses, indicators, and mentoring services.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to 8K Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, All the trading systems, the SRS Pro, the Forex Triple B Pro, all the indicators and trading tools from our marketplace, private mentoring sessions, and more, please refer to the link below this video in the description. Euro dollar is our first instrument for this week. Last week we discussed about this bearish divergence that is forming on the euro dollar. And we eventually expect to see the bearish move down. I believe these conditions are yet forming, and I'm not quite fully confident to say that the rally is over because there is a chance that the euro will try one more final spike before the big reverse takes place. Take a look what happens here if I use the Bollinger Band indicator, our custom Bollinger Band indicator, we have an amazing area here with the Bollinger Band duplication zone. All that happens to be between the supply area and the broken support that acts as resistance. That's why I believe this is the zone when the euro is going to form its move down. However, if we examine what happens on the lower time frames That basically nothing happened this week, and everything is despite the fact that the Fed did hold the rates this week. We also saw it's irrelevant to the euro, but fundamental-wise, right? We also saw the UK holding the rates. We saw Japan keeping the rates around the 1.50. We saw in Switzerland they cut the rates to zero. It was a very, very busy fundamental week, and yet. It somehow turned to be flat. But with this analysis and despite the news that the euro does not drop, there are 2 main scenarios I see here. First of all, we saw the supply zone on the weekly chart. We saw the daily divergence that it is forming. So there are 2 scenarios on the euro. For the bearish one, we are forming a zigzag, so which means 2 waves down. If that follows with 2 waves up or any sort of a range, and get the break, we are very likely heading to see the EUR/USD completing the ABCD and from there possibly to rally again. For the ideal scenario, the EUR/USD should follow something like that, complete another false breakout, maybe even more than once or something like that One and two, and from there make the big reversal to the downside. So with all that in mind, the way I am looking to sell the euro dollar at the end of the rally, I want to see this final peak, like to clean these trend line and highs. I want to see that ideally some another high for the divergence, and then most likely we should see the euro dollar going back to 114. Maybe even 113, maybe even below that, but that would be the initial place. However, as I mentioned before, if it does not complete the rally but makes the range or ABCD correction and breaks it down, then I believe it opens the doors to the 114, 117 next. In terms of numbers and the percentage change on the euro, so it's very positive on the month. Even seven days is still zero point eight percent to the upside. So it speaks for itself. The momentum is bullish, slowing down, but still bullish, and that's why the expectations are accordingly. Next one would be our pound dollar. Last week we were talking about. The expectations to see with this bearish divergence, we wanted to see the break below the recent trend line, rally, and from there sell. So with the pound behaving pretty much similar to the euro, we do have the pound making this beautiful bearish divergence on the MACD. Therefore, the expectation to see a corrective structure. Corrective structure is either ABCD or anything like a range before the market decides what's next. My view on the GBP/USD for the long term is that the rally is not over. I believe that after some correction, the pound should rally further, and I do think that later or sooner we're gonna cross the 1.37 and with high probability retest the 1.39 up to 1.41 zone, maybe even beyond that. On the shorter term, these bounces are likely to happen, welcome to happen, which after I believe it's time to buy. So on the shorter term view, I think the pound dollar should complete that corrective structure here, either ABCD or a range once again. Once we develop some bullish divergence and some bullish signs, it will be likely time to start and looking For the rallies, in terms of numbers, we are mixed. The month is flat. The seven days flat, flat. I mean below half percent change. So the twenty-four hours. That's why the market right now is in kind of decisive or designing waves before the next move taking place. And that's why corrective move at the moment would be simply ideal. before it flips to the upside again and continues with the weekly trend. Next one, USDJPY. We discussed last week of one of the scenarios we are following that we get the rally close to this zone here until it will get and complete this divergence. So this scenario is still following, at least for the For the moment, and I believe that the dollar yen is very capable on a short term doing that exactly. We have a very strong supply zone here up to here as where it was a little consolidation here before sellers took control. So as long as this zone holds, I think on a shorter term we could actually see bounces to the downside. However, Uh, on the longer term scale, there is a chance that we are heading here either for the range of the daily chart and then break to the downside, or we will see that the daily completes sort of 2 waves here with some bearish divergence and then looking for much bigger sales. This or other way around, for me It is sell these rallies either from this zone which we saw as a supply or slightly higher. And take a look on this key trading level based on the volume profile. This is our KTLI indicator. One from one of these levels, I believe the dollar yen is a sell. From the numbers and percentage change, the months and seven days are bullish one percent. Above one percent on the monthly, slightly below the percent on the seven day. For twenty four hours starts to slow down, which usually teaches us numbers start to shrink in a bullish momentum. Usually teaches us that the peak is not far, and that's why for me at the end of these rallies that are happening, I am after sales. And on the shorter term, basically I would be looking for the classical signs like always. We already start to develop here a bearish divergence. So I'll be waiting to see these signs, a bearish divergence, some fake highs, right? We have the trendline here, fake highs, and from there looking for a sell-off, classical based on reversal trading strategies. By the way, I really recommend you watch this video here if you are interested learning more about the trading strategies. The final one is gold, a follow-up on our previous week discussion. We predefined this one as overbought conditions, which is why I believe looking for the sells have much bigger chances, uh, than for the buys. We are overriding on the upper Bollinger Band here, which is a strong bearish pressure. It's only question of time until we start to see the sell on the daily chart. We saw already in this place. Let me just hide these levels for a moment. We saw already daily chart making ABCD to the downside, and now some sort of a correction. So if we manage to break that down, go below this low, I believe this is a beginning of a strong sell-off, very possibly back to the rising trend line, maybe even beyond. If not, there is a probability we're gonna see here another possible fake high for a bearish divergence to complete. Higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD, and from there a sell. So right now, as you can see, during the week the gold was not doing much, like most of the market. A lot of the gold moves at the moment would depend on everything happening with The Middle East with Iran and all the war and all that, how it affects the market. So right, that's that's why it's slowing down right now before it will gain the momentum to one of the directions. So once again, if we manage to break the key lows, then sell the rallies becomes classical trading plan. Until then, there is a very strong probability we're gonna clean the last high or at least get very close there. Before the next sell-off actually takes place. That will be it for this video. I hope you find value in this trading opportunity. 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