Forex Weekly Forecast | USDJPY,EURUSD,GBPUSD,GOLD | 15th - 19th May 2023 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to my weekly forex forecast. Today we are preparing for the week of 15 to 19 May 2023. Usually May is a volatile month And with the US debt ceiling coming in June, unless there will be some last-minute deal as usually they do, the contribution on the forex market could be, could be pretty, pretty big, and the volatility could really be significant in these months. So on this video, I would have— I want to share with you several very Interesting opportunities, as I believe. Then you will see why. So let's go to the charts. So that would be the dollar yen. That would be the euro dollar. It would be the pound dollar, and it would be the gold. Okay, we'll discuss about all of this, and I would want I would want to start with the dollar yen. But before we go to the charts and dig deep into the technical analysis and the trading plan, I want to give a big shout out to Mogan Markets for supporting my channel and my work. And to learn more about Mogan Markets and their PAMM accounts and other amazing solutions for traders, follow the link below this video in the description. So the first instrument would be the dollar yen. Let's go to the Home Trader Club members area, and I want to show you here The dollar yen numbers. So look what happens here with the months, seven days, and the twenty-four hours days. If we are again now in a full synchronization, okay? There are two scenarios I follow on the dollar yen. One of them is a short-term bullish, and I will explain why. The other one is a possible long-term bearish due to the numbers. So what we see here, we are in a bullish trend without any sort of doubts. The numbers. Usually do not lie. The bullish trend is there for a long term, midterm, and shorter. Now taking that into the charts, and here is what we see. Okay, the movement here is pretty much under a bearish trending structure. Okay, we do have a sequence of lower highs, lower lows, and I believe that this now is nothing more than any sort of ABCD correction or no, any range correction before a potential dive to another low. And that's exactly what I have in my mind, because right now this high was holding, yes, but we never got another fake high, right? A false high or a false breakout. We never also broke the most recent, uh, uh, uptrend band, the supportive line. So we cannot say that the buy— the— sorry, the sellers are already in control. And with that in mind, here is the first scenario. I would expect to see the dollar yen pushing back to retest the previous significant highs. So the highs of the uptrend at the moment, we have this high, the next one is slightly higher, and the highs of the downtrend is this one, and not too far from that, okay, is this area. All these are— so what I'll tell you why I pay attention to the highs, as these were the most recent, um, levels where the sellers took back the control of the buyers. Imagine that this way: the buyers were pushing, sellers took control. Okay, the buyers were trying to push, sellers took control. Buyers start try to push, sellers take control. So these areas are the levels or zones where the sellers showed their interest. Okay, and that's why they— these levels are significant. And these levels could behave as a strong supply area to look for, um, the next sell again if the area is holding. Okay, the fact there is a high does not necessarily mean this area will hold. So what we want is always the price to reach the zone, start creating the rejection signs, start reversing and showing the signs. So the first scenario here is, uh, the following. We want to see this fake high completing, okay, ideally to one of these levels. What I will be following personally is that between the highs— I'll draw the 3 options— there will be some divergence. So higher highs on the chart but lower highs on the indicator. This would be a great sign that while the buyers are pushing, the mathematics behind this push or behind this rally is basically creating a negative deviation, negative divergence, and gives a sign that the sellers would start and develop their appetite. So also between the big 2 swing highs, we might see the same, same story— higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator. And if that happens, I will be looking for the rejection signs like the— on the lower timeframe, or at least with the candles, we start to see lower highs, lower lows, basically understanding that the sellers are trying to regain their control. Scenario number 2 is that this is just a fake rally and this mini range that currently is created will be broken eventually. And if that happens first, then with any pullback to retest the broken line, I would be after my sell here. And with each of the scenarios in mind, what I would like to see is the most recent bullish supportive line come for a retest. Basically, this completing the second wave down until we will get lower lows on the chart and higher lows on the indicator, completing a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. That this will give me an understanding that okay, probably that's it, and the buyers will step inside. That's my view on the dollar yen. Let me know what do you think about that. And the next pair on my list is going to be the euro dollar. But before I continue there, I would like to ask your support if you find this video. Valuable and useful. And if you find value in all the trading opportunities and the work I bring here in this channel for you, please show your support back. Hit this like button. Keywords in the comment section would make a great contribution to this channel. This is how YouTube algorithm works. So your help is very much appreciated and of course needed. Thank you in advance to all those of you who take time. To support and to help. So the euro dollar is the next one, and here are the two interesting things happening currently on the euro dollar. So the bottom line: this supply zone we currently have, this swing high and the spikes, is holding. Okay, the market does not manage to go beyond this high. The 110 level is holding. The market was trying to make a high but failed. We have several spikes on the top, meaning the buyers were trying to push, sellers rejecting and pushing back. Definitely not a strong positive sign. With that being said, this also becomes as a false breakout. We are right here on the volume profile, very strong zone of rejection, and we have a condition of a bearish divergence. While the market making higher highs, we have the histogram making lower highs, flipping from positive to negative to lower positive. Okay, this is a negative or bearish divergence. Take a look on this candle pattern. We have a sort of an evening star pattern here on the weekly chart. That's pretty strong by itself. So on the short term, I believe the euro dollar is due to some sort of correction. What levels should we be paying attention to? So we have the rising supportive line, and we have this massive supportive area. Okay, we have a volume zone, previously broken resistance, and the retested lows. All that becomes a key area, and I believe the euro dollar is going to try and to reach that at least. And I say at least because if it could really try and break below that, and if that happens, there is a good chance we are going to retest the previous demand area of that downtrend, which is here down to the previous low, and it could be like all the way to 103, 102. So how do I plan to look for these possible, uh, ways to join the trend? We currently develop here a sequence of lower highs, lower lows, no reversal signs or no trend change signs. So for me, any rally back to one of these zones— look, basically let's see where the sellers take control, okay? The most— I'll go wave by wave. So push down, consolidation, another push down. This becomes the first area, right? Uh, second leg, push down, rejection, another massive push down. So that becomes the next important area, right? And same happens here. Move down, rejection here by a lot of sellers. That becomes another important area. So any pullback to here and rejection— again, I don't want just a level, I want to see the price reaching the zones and reject. I want to see signs that the sellers step in. Could be the same time frame or even lower time frame, but something that really gives me the understanding that, okay, sellers are trying to take the control. Okay, so any pullback towards the zone and I will be looking to join the sells. And to go back to the area I mentioned before. Now, does that mean the euro is switching back to the long-term sell? I would not celebrate that much here yet. Let's start with the shorter and see how that develops. What do you think about the euro dollar? How low do you think can that go? And let me know what do you think. Are we going to see 113 up to 115, which are key levels on the higher time frame in the long term to the upside? Or are we going to see first of all 105, maybe even 103? Let me know in the comment section how do you see the euro dollar and, um, share your insights with other viewers. The next one is going to be the pound dollar, and I also want to go and to check this one. Look how it flips From a positive month, we have the midterm and the shorter term flipping the numbers, which many times gives us sort of indication that we are due to a correction. In that case, a bearish correction. So previous week I was talking about buy the dips, which for me for the long term remains the same plan. However, these dips could be a bit. Deeper than expected, and I will explain why. So for the long term, I want to start to explain why the long term I am bullish. For a long term, I believe that these three waves came to the end, and we should be seeing some significant long-term pullback. So at the end of the pullback, I will be definitely going and looking for the buys. However, There is a big however, right? On a smaller time frame, here is what we see. Okay, so the instrument rejects this trend line, and last week I was talking about it on my weekly forecast, explaining that if that would reject, that could be a sign that we will first face a correction before the price pushes towards the 130 or higher. And that's pretty much what does happen despite Britain hiking their rates on the last wig. That's what they did. Uh, and the tone there is that very likely we came to the place where we don't really need to rush and hike the rates again. And that's why we see the investors, yeah, a little bit leaving the pound-dollar at the moment. And like the euro-dollar, here is what happens here. So a broken support became a resistance And now rejects it. Pretty significant rejection. 125 was broken and played, and now the price retraces back below that. While the market is trying to make higher highs, the MACD making lower highs. Again, signs of a slowdown. And of course, we have this engulfing building up at the end of the week. So going down to the daily chart, and on a daily chart, here is what we see. False breakout, fake high with a bearish divergence. So while the market makes higher highs, the indicator makes lower highs, again completing a negative divergence or a bearish divergence in that case. And that happens on the MACD here, right, as well as the RSI making the lower highs. So that's pretty much a significant scenario. But here is another very interesting thing that triggers my eye on the 4-hour chart. We have a flip. Okay, so we have fake high, same conditions of higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator. And then look what happens: lower lows on the chart, lower lows on the indicator. And while the market makes the lower highs, lower lows, RSI joins the party and makes the same. Usually a very strong technical condition. This is why, exactly like with with the euro dollar, I believe that. Also, take a look what happens here. The most recent uptrend line here starts to be breaking down. So there are two key scenarios for the pound dollar. Okay, we have a significant resistance that became a support here. Okay, and we have a massive volume zone at this area. Okay, on the short term, there is a great chance we will see some bounces here. However, I don't think that this should be. Anything significant more than that. As long as these key highs here and here will manage to hold, I will be looking for these pullbacks as a short-term sell opportunity if the condition really managed to remain bearish. And here is a very interesting thing— we have this rising supportive line. The market managed to eventually break it down. Then yes, I believe we are going to the next important level on the volume, on the volume that's around 121, 120, and potentially to retest this main key zone that would be around the 118. You see the previous, the, the demand area, the previous low of the downtrend and the most recent swing low. This is from a weekly chart or daily chart on the uptrend. Okay, so this trend line is key. Okay, we do have support here. If it holds, fantastic. If it breaks, it opens up the door for deeper pullback before— as I said at the beginning, I believe that the buyers will eventually take the control and push that to new highs. Now another very interesting, interesting and important thing, because that's a very strong supportive area, what could happen here is the market could cause a trap. So give a sign like it really gains momentum, but then switch, uh, go and make the bullish trend once again— higher highs, higher lows— break this high, and then this again becomes an uptrend. For the highs and the rallies towards 130. So it's very important to pay attention how the price would really behave here on a short term. I am now switching bearish and explain why and my trading plan. However, paying attention that it could be a trap, and if the price structure again flips and makes the signs to the upside. Then yep, we are back to the long-term bullish signs. The classical scenario here though should be the following move on the corrective side: retest the previously broken low, and from there fly all the way to all time—not all time high. Sorry, the new time, the new new highs of the year, we could say. So that's the pound dollar and. Let's go to the last one. In the last one will be the gold. The gold, the gold, the gold. So interesting. I believe that on the long term, the gold is yet to create and complete all-time high. If my analysis is correct, that means to me that I want to buy the dips, and eventually I do expect to see the all-time high here until this divergence will complete. And then move down will happen. So going to the weekly chart, what we have right now is some sort of a rejection here. Consider that buyers don't really take the control yet. We have some slowdown. Any pullback is very welcome. We have a broken resistance that becomes a support. We have a rising supportive line, and of course we have these massive volume zone and previously created demand area on the weekly chart. So going down to the daily chart, trying to find what do we really have, and here is how it currently behaves. Fake high, false breakout. So the market managed to make a fake, a fake high, bearish divergence everywhere, moving averages of the MACD, RSI, And right now the correction happens. Okay, but we never broke any low. We never broke any of the supportive rising line. We never break any of the dis supportive line. So can we say the trend is changing or changed? The answer is no. And here are two scenarios that are very possible to happen on the gold. First one, we are about to complete— sorry, we are about to complete the, uh, 2 waves correction here, go and retest the volume zone and this strong supportive area, and from there go and break this falling resistance line and go to the all-time high. Another scenario which we need to pay attention to is that the market managed to break this level, make the new low, come for a retest of the volume here, okay, hold the resistance, falling resistance, and break down for deeper correction. If that happens, let's go to the daily chart. I want to show you the full scenario. So this is our daily supportive line. Okay, that's the previously broken resistance that now behaves as support. If we go down to the 4-hour chart once again, these levels could indeed be retested eventually. Okay, breaking this low, come for a retest, and making dive back this area. Okay, so these 2 scenarios are what we follow in, in gold. One is that we got this ABCD and breaking the resistance line and going for all-time high. And the second scenario is we go deeper to the daily rising supportive line, daily low, and the volume zone, okay, and start to create the signs from— for the buys from there. At the moment, I believe that the correction is— the short-term, very short-term correction is yet happening. And we need to let it complete first of all before the bullish signs take place. Okay, if the correction happens to be deep, as I, as I've done before, let the move happen and look for the rejection sign. What do I mean by that? Let the move down happen, make sure the buyers are taking control again, higher highs, higher lows, and that would be your sign to start looking for for the possible buys for the all-time high. Until that happens, the correction is here. I wouldn't even— I wouldn't even say it's a correction, say a pullback, as we are retesting them. Don't forget this level, okay? This is a very strong zone here of supply. We can't deny that, okay? And what currently happens here is very natural, very normal, because For those who are jumping in early before any bullish signs really happens, that's exactly how the market cleans the position. Okay, it brings back money, um, that just jump in without any specific trading plan, shaking it, making it feels like, oh, now the sellers are taking control, or giving some fake signs. Then people abandon that, join on a sell at very late levels, and then the market goes to all-time high. And this, you know, retail, I would say not professional money, finds itself exposed to wrong positions and causes the losses. So the behavior currently happening on gold is more than normal. And yeah, I expect this movement to complete itself, as I just explained, before the gold will manage to go and take us to all-time high. So that would be pretty much it for for me. And let me know what do you think on gold. Share your views and your input inside that comment section below this video. And I would like to thank you for your time watching this video. And to invite you to join us in Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading ideas, live market analysis and trading plans at the beginning of the week, our trading community, myself, real-time trading education, and so, so, so much more. So join our family with the link below this video in the description. I wish you and yours all the very best. And thank you again, once again for your time. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now and good trading.