In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club presents technical analyses for three key instruments—USD/JPY, Brent crude oil, and EUR/USD—intended for the trading week starting 16 January 2023. He begins with a brief audience appeal, then dives into chart‑based reasoning. For USD/JPY he highlights a full‑range move between Bollinger Bands, aligns Fibonacci expansions with prior demand zones, and looks for MACD divergence, higher‑high/lower‑low reversals, and false‑breakout patterns around the 127‑126 and 122‑120 price areas. For Brent oil he revisits his longer‑term bearish view, explains a current pull‑back that may extend deeper via a two‑wave corrective structure, and points to volume‑profile support, higher‑high/lower‑low dynamics, and a potential move toward $90‑$95 or a deeper drop below $75. For EUR/USD he notes a straight Bollinger‑Band move, identifies weekly resistance around 112‑114 and daily support zones near 108‑107, and stresses the need for MACD/RSI divergence completion before taking sell positions, with possible fake breakouts and volume‑area targets. Throughout, Ribakov stresses trading on confirmed signals rather than potentials, invites viewer interaction, and promotes the Home Trader Club’s educational services.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my weekly Forex forecast. Today we are preparing for trading week starting on 16th of January 2023, and in this video I will be covering dollar yen, Euro dollar and the oil follow-up on the previous weekly forecast video. Before I go to the charts and start sharing with you all the technical things I find here, and why do I find these trading opportunities so interesting for the coming weeks, maybe even more than that, I would like to ask your support and your help. If you find this video useful, helpful, and you like these trading ideas. And you appreciate this work, please hit this like button below this video and subscribe to the channel. And also feel free to share this video with anyone who you would like to. And, uh, if you have any questions or feedback about anything in this video, I would be very much thankful for your feedback in the comment section below. So thank you for those of you who take the time to to support and my, and my teamwork. And I hope you find this video useful. So now let's begin and let's talk about the charts. So the first interesting pair here is the dollar yen for several reasons. After the massive rally that this pair experienced the last year, look what happens in the reaction since, well, the second part of the last year and continues in January so far. So we have, if you take a look on the Bollinger Band, We have a straight move from top Bollinger Band to the lower Bollinger Band. This is a one straight move. When such moves happen, usually the market tends to stop from the lower band towards the 50% deviation, which is the distance, right, of the Bollinger Bands, the middle to the lower part. So if we take that and you duplicate, it will be somewhere around this area here. Okay, so the market tends to make the and complete the moves within that 50%. Now why do I show that? Because if we will plot now several different technical factors, you would see that everything lines up. So here is a rising supportive line from the weekly chart. Here is the previous demand area, kind of clearance zone in this. Uptrend. Now let's go to the daily chart, and here are the interesting things we can see on a daily chart. So let's plot Fibonacci notches on the first move and the second move. Okay, so first move, correction, and second move. Look where are the 2 levels. The 61.8 Fibonacci expansion is right here next to the demand area. The 100% Fibonacci expansion of the of both legs is right on the trend line, and the next demand area right here. So when we plot that together, we receive two amazing levels to watch for bullish evidences from, and the price to turn upside. In a minute, I will explain what are the technical things I am looking at. So that's from the perspective of the. Weekly and a daily chart analysis. What I want to see here is basically a rejection. How does rejection look like? For the first sign is when it manages to complete a divergence. Okay, so I want to see the low, the second low, to be created here on the moving average of the MACD, a price to create a low and to bounce, and the MACD to round upside. Without a divergence to be completed, this low is only a potential low. Besides that, what I want to see here is the price to react. So at the moment, we are creating the lower highs, lower lows. What I want to see is the reversal of that, okay? The price to start and create higher highs, higher lows. That would be a great opportunity. And on the lower time frame, if we go there, we might start to see for reversal signs. Usually that could look like a false breakout, okay? Like a low and then a fake low and the price to reverse. So from fake lows, we start— we could start to see the higher highs and then buy the dips would be the plan. This is one possible reversal sign. Another possible strong reversal sign is if the price bounces back and start to create the 3 higher highs, higher lows representing the buyers stepping in. And then with the pullback, uh, back to the previous supportive zones, we can start looking for further bullish continuation. So I believe that these 2 levels on around— first of all, the 127 down to 126, um, could be the first area to look at. The next one is around 122 down to the 120. Let me know what do you think about it. Will the dollar-yen bounce off the first area or the second area closer to 120? Let me know what are your thoughts about this one and share your views in the comment section below this video. The next one would be the oil. It's a follow-up to the weekly video I, uh, the weekly analysis from the previous week where I analyzed and share why for the longer run I expect to see further move down. Okay, I'm not going to repeat my longer-term analysis. You can always watch that in the previous weekly video. However, what I want to explain is why the current pullback might be a little bit longer and deeper. So on the daily chart, what we currently see— actually, let's start from the weekly chart. It will be easier to explain what we currently see at this support area holds and this histogram bullish divergence creates the pullback. That pullback could be in a daily chart in terms of 2 waves or a range. In simple words, that's what is very likely to happen— 2 waves here and further continuation down, or some sort of a range. And that's also a common, uh, corrective structure before the continuation. But why do I think the first scenario is more likely right now? Is because that during the week the market managed to create 3 higher highs, higher lows, which stands for the bullish trending structure. Um, and I personally was looking for this breakout during the week, uh, the break of the low and the rising trend line, and to get a continuation. But this never triggered me. So, and the price managed to make these 3 higher highs, higher lows, which for me is a sign that The sellers are not yet in control. If the sellers are not in control, I am checking what is building up here. And what I see that these three higher highs, higher lows we got on the first leg as a bounce of December got the pullback. And look what happens: we reached back the demand area and the volumes on as you can see here on this volume. Profile indicator, we got the bounce, and now we restarted making the three higher highs, higher lows. That's why I think there is a good chance that after some pullbacks, the market will try to continue further. And on the shorter term, there is a good chance that's what we will be looking at: this small pullbacks and continuation towards the previous swing high on the daily chart and the broken resistance area. All this critical zone. You can also see how powerful this daily volume zone is, as you can see right here. So there is a very good chance the market will try to push us to there on the shorter term. From there, very likely to assume we will start to see some rejection signs and potential further continuation down. So on a shorter term, I believe the oil has the probability and all the technical reasons to continue with its pullback in order to get the price better, to better levels, and continue with the longer-term trend it currently has. So what are your thoughts about the oil? Do you think this one can reach the area of $90, maybe even all the way towards 94, 95 area, or are we going to see further continuation down and the price to go below 75? Keep in mind I'm talking about the Brent, okay, uh, and not, uh, the US oil. So that's about the oil. And now let's go to the last one, that would be the euro dollar. So the euro dollar is approaching to key levels where I believe the sellers will start to build up and take the control soon. Starting from the weekly chart, after the bounce we've had here, look what happens with the Bollinger Bands. Okay, like I showed you on the dollar yen, the Bollinger Bands here makes one straight move, which usually means about the 50% deviation the price likes to create some top and start to bounce back. So this is from the weekly chart. Now look at these resistances. This is the first key resistance area. The next one is slightly higher on the weekly chart, around the, uh, 112, potentially towards the 114. That's from the weekly chart. But now look at the daily chart, okay? That's the daily levels. Broken resistance become a support and also a supply area. The next area is the next resistance with the next supply. Now look what is building up here on a daily chart. While the market makes the higher highs, the MACD moving average starts to build up lower highs, and so does the RSI. This is a sign that with a high probability This could behave as a rejection zone. But can we just put our money on a level? Technically yes, but that would be very risky. So what I love to do in such cases is watch for reversal signs. First of all, the divergence to complete. Without that, it's only potential, and I don't love to gamble on potential. I love to trade on facts. I love to act, okay? Um, I have to react to the act. So what the market does and the way the market acts, I love to make my reaction to that. So what I want to see is that to become a fake breakout and the price starts to make the lower highs, lower lows. And on the 4-hour chart, we could start to see reversal signs. Remember what I showed about Uh, the dollar yen, for example, right? It could also be seen on the euro dollar. So if we start to see fake highs, okay, attempt to make highs, but on the indicator we will see lower highs, that's an indication that the buyers are potentially running off the steam and losing their grip. And then if the price flips and makes the lower lows, this could become a great sell opportunity. So this is the very first zone I'll be looking for that rejection. What happens if the market says no, I want to continue higher? No problem at all. I'm just waiting for the next key level and I will be— oops, I was going to use a simple line. Okay, so I want to— I'll be looking for the price to carry towards this key zone. And don't forget the divergence. Once that completes, I'll be looking for key reversal signs like I just explained a minute ago, and then we'll be looking for a sell back to this key volume area around the 107 down to 105, maybe even further. What do you think? Will the euro dollar bounce back from the 108? 8 zone, or will we see the price reaching first of all closer to 111, 112 before it will start to bounce? Share your thoughts and your views in the comment section below this video. So that's pretty much it for this weekly forecast. I hope you find that interesting and useful trading opportunities, and if you have any questions or comments or anything you would like to share in terms of your views on the explained here in this video, feel free to do that in the comments section below. And thank you very much for your time watching this video, of course. And I invite you to join our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will enjoy from the very best we have to offer. As you can see on this image, full trading courses, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, and our amazing trading community. Join our family with the link below this video. In the description. So once again, thanks for your time. I wish you a wonderful trading week ahead. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
