Vladimir Ribakov analyzes GBP/CHF on the weekly and daily charts, identifying support zones and potential oversold conditions. He outlines two scenarios: a sell-the-rally drop or a trend flip from false breakouts. The Swiss National Bank's surprise 0.5% rate hike is unlikely to continue, while UK rate hikes could strengthen the pound.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my analysis on the pound franc, both fundamentally and technically. Of course, that's my field, and there are very, very interesting things happening and very interesting levels approaching right now in the market. So I would like to share with you what I have. But before I go and explain everything there, if you are new to my channel, welcome to our fantastic community. Please subscribe with the subscribe button below. And also welcome to our trading family, Traders Academy Club, where you will enjoy from a full VIP price action course, real-time trading ideas and education, and of course our supportive trading community. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. And also make sure, if you still did not do so, to download these 2 amazing indicators available for you absolutely free. My Virtual Trading Pen, this one, the toolbox, and the KTL indicator, Key Trading Level indicator, that allows you full control of multi-timeframe analysis to to find key trading levels in the market based on volume profile. Download them with the download link below this video in the description. So what do we have on the pound franc? A very interesting support zone is approaching here on the market and a very powerful potential because it's not yet completed ending divergence here on the histogram. Of course, we need the low still to be created This is why it is still a potential. Now, besides that weekly chart, on a daily chart, here is what happens. So after a massive move down, we are approaching to a very, very interesting scenario here of a potential slowdown with potential oversold conditions. Not quite sure it will go and really completed, but one more dive down might bring us very close to the oversold conditions. Oversold conditions next to key trading zone based on swing highs on a higher time frame is an absolutely fantastic place to look for, uh, buy opportunities. Now there are 2 scenarios, uh, for that to happen. Scenario number one is the following: we get some short pullback And until the daily and the weekly will complete, we will get one more drop down. So basically something like that, okay? A correction, a pullback here, which could be in one wave, could be in, uh, 2 waves, or any sort of a range, and drop down to complete the daily extreme or, or oversold conditions with the weekly level to be reached. The second option And very reasonable option is some slowdown conditions where you will start to see false breakouts. So every low to be created would create an instant pullback like it happens on the last several days. As you can see, every attempt to make a low pulls back, then continues lower, pulls back, continues lower, pulls back with a very tricky price movement. Now, if this scenario happens, we will be looking directly for the buys and not sell the rallies, simply with the principle of flipping the trend from faking low. For new fake lows, we would be looking for higher highs, and then with pullback, we will be looking for the higher lows to create and give us the setup And then it should provide an amazing buy opportunity. So this is from a technical part which we could enjoy. Sell the rallies if the pullback happens first, or buy the false breakout and the flip if this scenario builds up first of all. I say I give you these both scenarios because not myself, not you, nobody can really predict what the market will do. Any attempt to do so is a recipe for failure. So it's important to be ready for both scenarios, and whichever of them happens, be ready to go and respond. Now, this is from the technical part. Now, what happens fundamentally? Britain increased the rates, the US increased the rates, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Swiss came in surprise by a half percent. uh, increase. Now, very important to remind here that despite their hike, they are still negative, okay? Minus quarter, which means people there still have to pay to keep money in the bank, which is, in my understanding, absolutely ridiculous. Because if you let the bank use your money How is it even logically possible to pay for that? Anyway, probably my understanding and bank understanding are two separate worlds. Anyway, so fundamentally, Swiss did surprise. However, they are not expected. They surprised, which means they were not expected and they still did. But according to analysts, they are not expected to increase their rates more on the next rates decisions, at least on the same pace. They might do that with decreased pace, while Britain increasing the rate several times in a row and with the increasing inflation numbers there. Might go and press the gas pedal stronger. So fundamentally, this low to be created should be a great opportunity to really look for comfortable buy opportunities and take the price all the way to the upside. Let me know what do you think about the pound franc. And as always, for any questions, I'm there for you in the comments section. I hope you find this video useful and helpful, and if you do, please make sure to hit this like button. Uh, your help is very much appreciated and, um, your support. Thank you very much in advance, of course. So thank you for your time watching this video. I wish you and yours all the best. Once again, I welcome you to our trading family, Traders Academy Club. The join link is right below this video in the description, and I wish you a fantastic weekend to come. I'll see you soon with more. All the best. Bye for now.
