In this video Vladimir Ribakov of the Home Trader Club provides a technical analysis and trading plan for the GBP/NZD currency pair as of 24 January 2024. He reviews the recent rally that pushed the pair into a previously identified supply zone and confirms the zone with multiple technical tools: the 50 % Fibonacci level, a Bollinger Band duplication that aligns with the supply area, and a developing bearish divergence on the MACD and RSI. Ribakov outlines two short‑term scenarios on the 4‑hour and 1‑hour charts: (1) a final rally push that creates a fake high before a corrective pullback, and (2) a softer rally that stalls below the prior high and then reverses. He describes the expected price structures (three‑wave down, possible ABCD or ranging patterns) and projects potential pullback targets using dynamic support lines and Fibonacci retracements (50‑61.8 % of the leg, around the 38.2 % of the whole move). While he anticipates short‑term sell opportunities within the supply zone, his longer‑term bias remains “buy the dips” in line with the weekly bullish trend. The video concludes with a call to like, comment, and join the Home Trader Club for further education and real‑time trading opportunities.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. In this video, I want to share with you my analysis and follow-up plan on pound New Zealand. So in one of the recent weekly forecasts, we were talking about the pound New Zealand where the expectation was basically look for pullbacks and further rally. This rally went beyond the points That I had in my mind, but it reached a very important supply area we were talking about. So I want to follow up on this pair and see what's next. So let's begin. Before we start, big thumbs up and thanks to Adka Broker for supporting this channel. Channel and this community to enjoy all the offers we have thanks to Edgar Broker, including the access to the trading systems, the club, private mentoring, and so much more, follow the link below this video in the description. So as I said in one of the weekly forecasts, this was the idea we were talking about. Take a look above my camera. The plan was buy these dips, right, and let the Trend continue with everything or all the way develops on the higher time frame. While the first target for us was the 38.2 Fibonacci expansion, the next one is the key supply area that was reached. Take a look how many times this zone was tested and respected. So here we are at the moment. Right on 50% Fibonacci, right on this supply zone. And moreover, here is a very interesting thing. So take a look on the Bollinger Band levels. Let me use here quickly. So if you plot the Bollinger Bands on the last breakout, take a look on the dynamic resistance we have here on the duplication. Okay, this area corresponds beautifully with the supply zone. So as this area holds, I believe we should be looking for sell opportunities on the short term. The way I see this pair is that from this zone, which is the supply and the Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci we saw, of course, we should experience a pullback where from very likely the pair will continue its rally with the weekly trend. So now let's take a look how to enjoy these opportunities. So on the 4-hour chart, keep in mind once again we have huge zone here, right, of supply from the daily chart and the Bollinger Band duplication. And here is the very interesting part. We already started to build up a bearish divergence. Higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the moving average of the MACD, as well as the RSI and of course the histogram. From here, usually the market is building up corrective structures. And one— there are 2 scenarios that usually the market follows. Scenario number one is a final push, final rally, because it's still a bullish trend with the daily and the weekly chart. So in that case, as many times the market is going for 2 fake highs under bearish divergence. So higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the MACD, and from there making a major pullback. That would be scenario 1 that we will follow. If we do have one more high, uh, at this area, fantastic. We will be waiting for this peak to create together with the divergence and start looking for the sell opportunities. Scenario number 2 is actually Um, a bit trickier, I would say, but get a rally that does not go above the previously created high to the actual high, go inside this area, and from there making a pullback. And this is a very possible option that we could experience. If we do, here is how I expect it to work out. On the 1-hour chart, we developed the 3 waves down. 3 lower highs, lower lows stands for the classical bearish trending structure. From this moment, usually the market is making that pullback. The pullback goes to important supply areas. Once again, we have here an important spike of sellers. Sellers broken support, it becomes resistance. Again, many spikes of sellers, and again, a peak of sellers. As long as this zone holds, any ranging structure here or ABCD structure like this— let me just remove that— or some ABCD structure and then a breakout could lead for a great opportunity to actually go and enjoy a decent pullback, or in simple words, second corrective leg down. How far could such a drop go? Well, first of all, the dynamic supportive line. If we connect the lows the market managed to create for us, and then the dynamic supportive line, of course. And the second way is observation on the price. So if that was the structure to the downside, right, and this is the recent high that was cleaned And this would be the low of interest. So the market could possibly go and complete the second move down all the way to this zone, or at least close to this zone. Of course, we can also plot Fibonacci on the ongoing leg, and you will see it will fit around the 50 to 61.8% Fibonacci. And if we plot on the whole thing— I, I don't plot on the whole thing because I don't think it's a completed cycle. But if we do, we will figure out that this zone we were talking about would not be surprisingly around the 38.2% of the whole movement. So this zone is a really important zone if the second scenario comes in play. So for me, on a short term, I would expect the sell opportunities to go and build up But for the long run, buy the dips was and will remain my plan. That's it for this video. If you find value in it and you enjoy the trading opportunities, please hit the like button. Few words in the comment section would be a fantastic help and support in my work on the channel. I also want to invite you to our trading club, Home Trader Club, where you get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading opportunities, education community, tools, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. See you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye for now.
