In this weekly market commentary, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club explains the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to double its long‑end bond buybacks, emphasizing that the move injects liquidity into the bond market without creating new bank reserves, distinguishing it from traditional quantitative easing. He argues that the added liquidity should weaken the US dollar and support higher prices for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. Ribakov then provides technical analyses and trading plans for several key assets: - EUR/USD: He notes a prolonged run above the upper Bollinger Band, expects short‑term pullbacks but overall bullish bias, targeting 1.18‑1.20 and possibly higher if the rally sustains. - GBP/USD: He highlights a break above a volume‑profile balance zone, higher highs/lows, and suggests buying dips with a longer‑term target above 1.40. - Gold: After a prior forecast of a bounce at $4,400‑$4,500, he sees bullish divergence, higher highs/lows, RSI above 50, and projects a move toward $4,800‑$5,000, with $4,500‑$5,000 as a key demand zone. - Bitcoin: Following a bullish divergence and a breakout above recent highs, he warns of short‑term overbought RSI but anticipates a clean‑up of the $80k‑$85k area, then a move to $95k‑$97k and potentially $105k‑$110k on the weekly chart. He recommends buying dips throughout. Ribakov concludes with standard channel calls‑to‑action and promotion of Home Trader Club’s educational resources.
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What's up, traders? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and what a week it was on the market. The Federal Reserve doubles the long-end buyback and shocks the market, bond market mainly. That was the idea, to bring in more liquidity, and of course the metals, commodities, and some other instruments. So will that Bring the gold back to five thousand. Can the euro dollar climb to one eighteen or one twenty? Is the Bitcoin going back to one hundred thousand dollars? Let's break it down and let's cover it all. So first of all, quick overview: What just happened this week? So the Federal Reserve. Brings back some liquidity or doubles the liquidity after the bond market stress from two billion at least four billion of the buybacks, and they are targeting the long-term bonds market, and it is effective from September to November at least at the moment. So what happened there is because the thirty years yield reached more than five percent five thirty three. This is the highest level since two thousand seven. And that was the strong offers in older bonds. All that geopolitical pressure, geopolitical stress brings back this kind of quantitative easing. Not quite. I will explain why not. So that basically means long bond demand is supported to the upside. The Treasury yields supposed to go lower and the market liquidity improves. And What all does that mean on our forex market? So we do expect the US dollar to be more bearish now because there is simply more money involved, more free dollars. And that probably would be the best on the gold, which should maintain the run. Gold, silver, and also the crypto market, which I believe found now. It's new momentum. It's new buyers. It's new reasons to rally. So that is pretty much what happens. And is that really a quantitative easing? Not quite. It is a similar market reaction, but it's a very, very different mechanism. They simply buy old, less liquid bonds. They are not really printing money. So That's what happens here. They do not make any new bank reserves while in the quantitative easings when it was happening, they were buying securities at a scale and create bank reserves, basically printing money. So that's not really what happens here. And yeah, let's take a look how that affects on the charts. So I want to start with the euro dollar, which got the boost on the last week. And the biggest question is what's coming next. So While the longer term, to me personally, at the moment remains a little bit unclear, but with some probability to see the euro dollar actually climbing again with the next highs and maybe even reaching the 125 for the long run. But on the shorter run, I definitely see, let's say, some rejections coming on the euro dollar. So what do we have here right now? We start to see the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles. We are climbing up without significant retraces. Usually, you know what it means like here. It brings some pressure to the downside. So I definitely believe we will see the pullbacks. But is that over? So as long as these levels hold, I believe the euro will have hard time around these levels. We should see these bounces. But as the bounces take place, I am after buy the dips here. I Really, for now, at the moment, unless anything changes dramatically, I don't see different outcome. So from my point of view, that's the 2 scenarios I'm looking to get involved. If it climbs first, I'll be looking to sell for these retracements. If we do get this bounce here back to this zone, I am after the buys, expecting it to climb all the way to above 118, 120, maybe even beyond. So for me, this is the trading plan on the euro dollar, as simple as it can get. And what all that means on the pound dollar. So you remember I was talking about it for a long time. I believe that for the long run, the pound dollar is going to above 140. Is that already happening right now? So what I like right now is that the pound managed to break above this range and it is holding itself above the volume profile balance zone. That's a strong technical condition. And if we take a look right now, we are building higher highs, higher lows. Uh, while the market attempts to make this high as well. You can see there is no divergence against or anything like that, which makes me think this is buy the dips. On the lower time frames, I believe the pound-dollar will find some peak either from here or maybe, maybe it will try another spike and then drop down. Uh, we have this range consolidation that's an important zone. We have the broken resistance that acted as support and And of course, we have these volume profiles on. So any bounce towards these levels, for me, it simply means buy the pound dollar. I believe we are on the way to above 140. And what all that means on the gold. So in the last weekly forecast, we discussed about the 4,400 up to 4,500 as a key level where I expect the gold to bounce back before very possible scenario of the rally to continue. And that's what happens with the gold right now. And the biggest question is right now, so what's coming next? Are we going for a new all-time high? I think it's a little bit too early to judge that, uh, but on the shorter term, the way it behaves right now, the, the facts are bullish. This is a bullish divergence. This is a bullish price structure— higher highs, higher lows. RSI climbs, making its own higher highs, higher lows, and holding above 50. There are no ending signs, which makes me think that gold is heading to $4,800, up to $4,900, and with high, very high probability, it's going for this little range here. Take a look. Which looks not significant but is extremely significant as a supply area, and all that is about 5,000. So for me, the gold is back on bullish, and any pullbacks here I believe should provide further buys. What are the key levels to pay attention to? This mini consolidation above the 4,500, as long as it holds. This range as a strong demand area as well. As long as these 2 levels hold here I would be looking to buy these retraces. And if there will be no surprises, I think the gold is heading all the way to $4,800, maybe even $5,000. What do you think? Let me know in the comments. And let's talk about the Bitcoin. So I was expecting to see the Bitcoin making the clearance of this low before it massively goes up. Clearly, the Federal Reserve had different plans. And what happened there with the Bitcoin is after this bullish divergence, It finally managed this week to break above this high, and similar to all the other instruments, it is making higher highs, higher lows on the chart and the indicator as well. But I would pay attention to on the shorter term with all the excitement that the RSI is getting very strong overbought area, and we are next to the broken support and now access the resistance. So on the short term, I believe this area around the 80,000, maybe even 80,000 $55,000 should act as a strong area, some bounces which after I believe should bring the Bitcoin to the upside. So are we in front of another bullish run that will take the Bitcoin to all-time highs? At the moment I have my doubts. Of course it could happen, but as for now we don't have enough evidences for that because it is only first Bullish run after the bullish divergence, right? So what should happen here? I believe that Bitcoin definitely should clean this high with high probability also to go to this zone here, which is around the $95,000 up to $97,000, and then very possible all the way to this high from the weekly chart, which is around the $105,000 up to $110,000. So buy the dips. From my point of view, is the right thing to do with the Bitcoin. Any pullbacks here, unless there will be any surprise, should load the next portion of the buyers. Watch out for this dynamic supportive line. Of course, that's a strong area, and as long as it holds, look to buy the dips. So that's my view on the Bitcoin. And as always, I hope you find value in this video and the trading opportunities. If you do, hit this like button, and if you are new to our channel, make sure you subscribe. To the channel with the subscribe button. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask. And I would like to thank you for watching. I hope, uh, once again you enjoyed that. And I want to take the opportunity to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. Enjoy our full courses, real-time trades, real-time education, so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description, or free with our partnership with Ava. All the links, the all the relevant links for you with all the offers are in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Happy trading. Bye for now.
