Vladimir Ribakov analyzes gold after Trump's election win, noting the strengthening dollar. Gold has been overbought on the upper Bollinger Band for over 20 candles, with bearish MACD and RSI divergences on the daily chart. He recommends selling rallies and targets a demand zone around $2,500.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. In this video, I want to talk about the gold. We saw a big drop since the announcement or the expectation to the announcement that Trump will be the next president, and let's talk about what's coming next. So first of all, congratulations to Donald Trump on winning the elections. Like it or dislike it, it's different discussion. That's not the case. He won, uh, and let's hope as traders that it would be— it would bring the best impact on the financial markets and the best opportunities. But with that in mind, we saw how dollar gains trends. Remember, America first, dollar first, Trump One, the expectation, or I would say even the fear of the market, is what will happen now. Tariffs and all the financial program and financial plans that Trump has could scare enough of the people. Let's talk about the technical part. Fundamentally, we see the impact of— let's talk about the technical. What happens there? So if we take a look on the charts, the gold is riding for more than 20 candles right on the Bollinger Band indicator. This is a very powerful sign. The last time it happened under the conditions of overbought situation was right here, and we saw the big drop. The one before was there, was also overbought, and we saw a big drop. So there's a very strong assumption that this zone could lead a drop on the gold. So we are overbought, riding more than 20 candles on the Bollinger Band, and if we take a look on this candle, as the breakout happened, we are actually right on the Bollinger Band duplication zone, another super powerful technical condition. On a daily chart, It's not different, and at the end of the rally we have here, at the end of this trend, is a lower— sorry, higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the moving average of the MACD, complete bearish divergence as well as the RSI. So the daily chart fully supports that this bearish assumption and/or bearish reason, I would say. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, Then very interesting condition starts to happen here. The most recent trend line breaks. The last situation was a fake high with higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the moving average of the MACD. Again, a bearish divergence. And now we have lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator, which completes a bearish convergence. So that's a very strong technical signs. Of course, we have the bigger trend line being broken right now. The question is what's coming next on the gold. So the way I see that, I see no reason why the gold would stop its decline. Of course, pullbacks are welcome, but I don't see again any reason why it would stop, and pullbacks to me should be opportunities to look for further sell. I definitely expect this low to be retested, and for the longer run. There is a very good probability that the next major demand zone, which is here around $2,500 for the long run, is a very reachable, very possible target. So for me, sell the rallies is what I would expect on gold. Let me know what do you think about the gold. That's it for this video. Thanks for watching. I want to take the opportunity and to invite you to our trading family, Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities, access to the community, and so many of our tools, follow the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
