Vladimir Ribakov analyzes gold's technical setup, identifying bearish MACD divergences and an ABCD corrective pattern forming on the daily chart. He plans to sell rallies targeting a 100% Fibonacci expansion and a supply zone near the October 2023 gap, expecting two to three down-waves across multiple timeframes.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video, the gold analysis trading plan, mainly follow-up on what we discussed in the last video on the weekly forecast. Ready? Let's begin. Before we start, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting this community and the channel. To enjoy all the special offers we have together with 8K Broker and to get your access to the trading systems, the trading club, up to 1 full trading year including also private sessions with myself, please refer to the link below this video in the description. Just please hurry up, this offer is temporary. So on the last weekly forecast, uh, and please make sure you watch this video in case you did not, Yet you can find the direct link in the channel, or right now on the right top corner of this video you will find an image there and the direct link to watch so you understand the full analysis behind it. Our plan was to get into the sells to see this second wave making the push down, and the plan we were talking about was first of all get the break and the hold below this trend line, rising supportive line, and sell the rallies is the plan. Now, uh, the, the lines you can see here, this is the trade we discussed in the Home Trader Club, so please ignore the lines. But this is the first legit target zone I want to talk here in this video, follow-up On what we've had. Quick recap on the analysis: due to the weekly divergence that is developing here, and as as I explained in the weekly forecast, and please again to watch that if you still didn't, we didn't have yet any trend change. We don't have the structure that makes lower lows and then lower highs. So it's very early to say is it over for the rally. And very good chance it's not. However, at the moment, the facts are that the weekly chart has bearish divergence. While the market was making the higher highs, indicator makes lower highs. And the daily chart has basically absolutely the same, which is right here at the end of this rally. We got the higher highs versus lower highs on the indicator, in that case the MACD. Making a beautiful bearish divergence. Such cases usually bring corrective structure. Corrective structure could be ABCD or any sort of a range. By the way it was developing, our assumption, which turns to be at the moment correct, was that it is about to complete the ABCD structure. So very important note here. The first very important target is right here. This is the zone we are currently at. But if there will be no stop, and by that I mean if the market is not going to— oops, sorry— if the market is not going to suddenly make a stop and create a bottom and bullish divergence, then the next targets the gold should be heading to would be the duplication of the daily waves with the potential to go all the way to this nice gap if we had right in October 2023 and the weekly low. So there is a good chance that the final target is going to be all the way down to here. Okay, so I want to explain the, the way I, um, operated this trade and what is— what would I expect next. So as per the 4-hour chart, remember we expect these 2 waves from the daily, so the 4-hour should develop the waves accordingly. So this was the first wave down, so I expect it to be the second wave down. The first wave down, we could basically break it down to 3 waves which were followed by ABCD correction, and then that means we should be moving down at least in 2 waves and very likely in All the three. So the bearish momentum was still on, and as we discussed on the weekly forecast, break below this triangle on the one-hour chart should bring a classical trending structure of one of my favorite strategies to join the ongoing trend. You can find a video right now in the right top corner. Explaining these very strategies. And what we had here is 3 lower highs, lower lows with ABCD correction, 2 waves correction, and what one of my favorite scenarios, bearish hidden divergence. While the market is making lower highs, indicator is making higher highs, and the classical setup comes right on play. We have huge balance zone here with the volume profile. We have an amazing supply zone at the place. We got the spike. And yes, of course, the news in that case, the CPI that was published today, got the fuel for this move. But there is always something that should happen in order to make the market move, right? And in that case, today it was the CPI report. So this was the trigger with the gold and an absolutely phenomenal run so far. And the biggest question remains, okay, what's next? So as this is the target, first target zone, which we are approaching right now, but at the moment there are no signs against. We could start to pay attention to these potential extreme, right, lows and oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart of gold, which very likely would get some bounce. But as long as there will be no price structure change, as I explained before, I believe gold has more to offer. And any bounces there could potentially lead us towards the next target zone, which is the 100 Fibonacci expansion, and potentially all the way to 161.8 expansion, close to the weekly swing low. So bearish view was and remains on. Let me know what do you think about the gold. How low do you think this one can go? Share your views in the comment section below this video. Thank you for your time watching this video. 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