Vladimir Ribakov walks through a GBP/AUD trade setup using bullish divergence and false breakout signals, with a 1-2 risk-reward ratio and 70-80% historical win rate. He shows how multi-timeframe confirmation on MACD and RSI guided his entry and exit, and notes that trading at month-start has statistical edge from past price bounces.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. In this video, I would like to share my technical analysis and a trade follow-up on the pound Aussie, a trade we've been talking about at the end of January, beginning of February, and this one delivered an absolutely amazing move of more than 300 pips profit. So in this video, I would like to explain the reasons behind the trade and how do I intend to manage that, or in that case, how did I manage that, and mainly why. So this is a very valuable several trading tips I would like to share with you. Let's begin. So this trade was shared with you 3 weeks ago in the weekly Forex forecast I published in my channel. If you missed this video, no worries. On the right top corner of this video, you can find the direct link to watch that fully. You can find it also in my channel. But also, here is a quick reminder of the analysis we've had and exactly what was the trading plan. By completing the low here. Like, this would be the ideal scenario— make the low, lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the indicator to build. Could be the histogram, moving averages. Likely to assume that RSI will join the party as well. And from there, I'll be looking for the price rejection. Okay, so I will want to see this top created and the rallies start to happen. Several candles start to make the, um, bullish evidences, provide us bullish evidences that the buyers are in. False breakout is a classical option, okay? So we can have here a low and a fake low. So attend for the price to move, wait for the bullish signs to appear, only then consider your buy opportunities, okay? Just attacking a level because it's reached could be amazing opportunity if the market reacts to your direction, but also could be too early, which would bring unnecessary losses. And that's something you will want to avoid. Now, why specifically I love to pay attention in that case to the beginning of the week— okay, the beginning of the month actually, based on these days— because historically, look on these bottoms here when they were created. They are created, I think, and yeah, this was right on the 4. A year ago, right on the 4. Yep, it was rounding since, right? But holding this zone, holding this zone, right? And the rallies take place from there. So this, these days, together with the levels, could definitely start and provide some bullish opportunities that we are looking for. So here is the trade exactly as we discussed in this video, which I hope you follow, or as you saw now on the quick reminder here. A correct trading plan would always increase your opportunity to find a trade. Now, could I know in advance that my trading plan would indeed reach the level of execution? No. I build my plan. I know exactly what I want to happen on the chart. If that happens, voilà, I am in the trade. If it doesn't happen, that means my plan was not valid. The market has different plans, and I will adjust my plan. I'm never going to force my view. My wish, my expectation, or my anticipation on the market. The market always knows better, so I can always adjust my trading plan according to what the market gives and never force my opinion on the market. So what I wanted to see in this specific case is one more drop down, lower lows on the chart, and higher lows on the moving averages of the MACD with the RSI, exactly as was explained. On the trading plan, the video you just saw. Right here came my execution. So I know I want the price to reach the levels. I know I want the price to form lower low and the indicator to complete a bullish divergence. Now, I always come when I see that happens. I always ask myself series of questions in order to decide if I have a good trade to take. What was that? So did my plan happen? Yes. Do I have lower lows? Yes. Do I have higher lows? Yes. Do I have a bullish divergence? Valid bullish divergence? Absolutely yes. Do I have a fake low or false breakout? The answer is yes. That's a low and that's a fake low. Lower low which immediately bounces upside. Classical conditions, right? All that happens to be right on the levels I wanted to see. And here is the main thing. Finally, I have here sequence of candles making the higher highs, higher lows, and gaining some bullish momentum with this reversal on the candle patterns. Now comes the question. So if I enter at that moment and I protect myself below the most recent low, I ask myself, okay, can I make some good money here? For that, I need to know where would I be aiming. Okay, now the reason I closed my trade here, I will explain. I'll go to the real chart. Okay, and here it is. So let me just show it. So based on the simple analysis of lows, highs, and swings on a daily chart, at the moment we got this lower low. I know that when the market— I don't know when, but when the market will make the reversal, the previous high is a legit zone, target zone to reach. Okay, so for me, this is a very legit target zone if— and I say if because I have no idea what the market will decide to do in that place, right? But if the market would start to reject, this is where I will be considering to cash out. Okay, so what happens in that case? Here we are in real time, right? We approach here. So this is my attack zone, this is my protection zone. Sorry, that's not my attack zone. Right here after we got the candles. Okay, and ask myself, okay, so if I enter here, I can get here around this area about 1 to 2 risk reward. Wonderful. If I have a risk reward that works in my favor at the, uh, um, initial trading area, I know I have all the possibilities to make money here, okay? Because if I work with certain accuracy level, in my case it's about 70 to 80%, uh, and I risk— uh, sorry, and I work with clean positive risk-reward which works in my favor, that's it. The mathematics and the numbers work in my favor. So in that case, I have a good opportunity. And as I said, I don't know if the market will resist here. Maybe the market would fly through and I would just be making more money. But in that case, here is what I saw. RSI very close to the overbought condition. And for the first time during this momentum wave, the market starts to make here a rejection and makes lower highs, lower lows. I already got my profit. I already got a good risk reward. I am right on the key supply area, which I just showed you on the daily chart. For me, it's an easy decision. I have a positive risk reward on an absolutely classical synchronized condition on the multi-timeframe. Voilà! I don't need anything else. For me, this is an absolutely easy trading decision, both to enter and of course to exit. Okay, and this is what I wanted to explain here, um, because, uh, to be honest, about 2 days ago or something like that, I received a question about this pair, and the question was, Vlad, how are you going to manage them? Okay, so, and I thought, okay, if I explain this to the person who asked, it might be valuable for the other viewers to understand how do I aim to trade and how do I execute my plan, okay, in a given trade. And this trade was explained to you in the weekly forecast, so I wanted to explain exactly how do I execute these trades, okay. And keep in mind, I have no clue, no idea that when I build a trade that there will be official trade. I'm waiting for the signs. I have my plan. I'm waiting the price to give me the The signs which I wanted to explain in this video, why I trigger the way I trigger. Okay, and then how do I actually work with my trade? By the way, also in the same video, right, I was showing you how the— this part, right, the amazing statistical indication. Remember we were talking about the beginning of the months, right? The beginning of the month, I was mentioning in this video these days. If you missed, please watch this video. You will see that by yourself. And here we are creating this low exactly in the range of these days. Here we are. Look, it's right second and third. This is the low. This is the reversal right in this range of days. Okay, so this combination statistics price bounce off a key level reversal pattern. Which I explained again here. How did I execute my trade and why? That's how I make my trading decisions. So I hope you find that this explanation valuable. And for all those of you who did follow the pound Aussie trade from the weekly forecast, first of all, well done. And I wanted to get. Make a quick follow-up on this trade. As for myself, this is my trading decision. That's what I do. If you are involved, consider yours. So that's pretty much it for this video. And I would like to invite you to our trading club, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full courses for beginners, for advanced, our real-time trading ideas and real-time trading education. Everything is available for you as an active member in Home Trader Club. Join us with the link below this video in the description. And thank you very much for your time watching this video. I hope you got the value I aim to, um, bring here in this video and you understand my trading decisions. And if you have any questions about this one, don't hesitate to ask in the comment section below this video. So thanks again for your time. Looking forward to see you with us. I wish you and yours all the very best. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye.
