In this YouTube video Vladimir Ribakov of the Home Trader Club provides a live follow‑up to his weekly forecast, focusing on three major instruments: the USD/JPY pair, gold, and the EUR/USD pair. He thanks his sponsor Mugen Markets and then walks through each market using technical analysis tools such as rejection zones, Fibonacci expansion, ABCD patterns, Bollinger Bands, hidden and bullish divergences, and convergence principles. For USD/JPY he outlines potential fake‑high formations, lower‑high/lower‑low structures, and a sell‑off scenario triggered around the 140‑140.28 supply zone. For gold he discusses a strong ABCD correction, a possible bullish divergence, and the interplay of a broken resistance‑turned‑support that could lead to a pull‑back and a renewed bullish move. For EUR/USD he evaluates the current rally, the likelihood of a deeper pull‑back, and the emergence of bullish divergence and convergence patterns that may precede further downside. Throughout he emphasizes watching for specific candle patterns, indicator flips, and volume‑driven support zones. The video ends with a call to action to like, comment, and join the Home Trader Club for real‑time education and trading opportunities.
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Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I want to go and make our market analysis and to cover an update or follow-up to the trading ideas and opportunities I've shared with you in the weekly Forecast. If you missed the weekly forecast, make sure you watch that for the full detailed analysis of all the instruments. And right now I'll go and make the follow-up on the ones that are moving. Basically, that will be the dollar yen, the gold, and the euro dollar. So let's begin with the first one. That would be the Dollar yen. But before we start talking about the charts, I want to take the opportunity and to thank Mugen Markets for supporting my work and my channel. And you can find all the information about Mugen Markets and their amazing conditions for traders, including the variety of their PAMM accounts, lowest spreads, and so many more amazing features with the link below this video in the description. And now let's go to the dollar yen. So the idea we discussed about on the weekly forecast was to see the dollar yen climbing towards these key rejection zones. So we have a first rejection zone, second rejection zone, which is the previous high of the massive daily uptrend, close to 140, and slightly higher than that we have here A broken support, it became a resistance and holding since. That's more like 140, 280. So from one of these zones, and they say one of these zones because we cannot predict where exactly the market will start the movement, but from one of these zones, I believe dollar yen will top, make another high, complete the conditions of higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator, and Start the sell-off. Let's go to the lower time frame and see how that actually could happen. Now, very interesting thing: if we go, let's go for a second daily chart. If we plot Fibonacci expansion to measure the the levels of this potential ABCD, we will figure out that the 100 level is very close to the key supply zone. So there is a very good chance the market will try to. Get there before the big major reversal will take place. And if we go to the weekly chart, we can figure out that the market will be very likely trying to make a condition of a bearish hidden divergence, where we get lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the histogram. That, together with the daily divergence I anticipate will happen, should create healthy conditions for the next sell-off to come. So going down to the 4-hour chart, and here is where it starts to be interesting. As we can see— okay, let me just zoom out a little bit— these are the key zones we were talking about. Pay attention to what starts to happen here. Dollar-yen has over 20 candles ride on the upper Bollinger Band without any significant Pullback since then. The last time it happened in this rally was here, and since then we saw how strong this move down really happened to be. And from this moment, basically, I believe the buyers will start to feel the rejection. The classical conditions should be something like that. Fake highs to be created, some divergence to be completed on the most recent leg, these 3 waves to complete the rallies, and from there to make the reversal. So what I will be following is exactly this scenario: fake highs— but by fake highs I mean the market attempts to make a high, fails, attempts to make a high, then completes a reversal by making Lower highs will be following after the most recent uptrend line. We want to see that the change, lower lows, and then we'll be looking to go and apply the sells. Another thing, of course, well, simpler for those who don't want to wait for technical sign, is to start follow for rejection on a daily chart in terms of candle patterns. So as the market climbs, we're we will want to start and pay attention to where it rejects the zones and start to make lower highs and red candles. This also could be a classical, uh, situation and condition that prepares it for the next sell-off. The next one is the gold. As we discussed on our weekly forecast, one of the scenarios we want to follow is basically the market to drop down to the previous low by completing this strong ABCD correction. And that's pretty much what does happen since then. We even started to build some sort of a bullish divergence condition on the histogram, flipping from negative to higher positive and lower— and the higher negative, sorry. So was that enough? Not quite confident because Look at the waves, how they develop. It's instead of losing the pace, it feels like each wave still has significant pace. Many times that's not conditions that really mean the ending is here. And with that in mind, we need to remember this rising supportive line and the broken resistance that became a support that we might see the gold pushing slightly lower until it will really. Will manage to go and reject and start the bullish signs. So I am not really sure that the sell-off is over. Very good chances that we will see the market making something like that, then, um, you know, building up some pullback here to hold, retesting the falling resistance, making this final push we discussed build some cleaner divergence, which means the market will try to attempt and make new lower lows, but this time the moving average will round and create higher lows before the buy takeover. The other scenario is, of course, well, what if the analysis is wrong and this holds, right? This could happen. We can't predict it. For that, what I will want to see is the market to go and hold this breakout. Let me just draw it this way. Okay, so if we go here, complete the break of the falling resistance, climbing above that, right, making new structure and new bullish momentum, and then of course we can look to buy the dips. The next one is the euro-dollar, but before I continue, I have a request for you. If you find these video, uh, useful and you find value in that, please show your support back. Hit the like button. A few words in the comment section would make a huge help to me and the channel. This is how YouTube algorithm works, so any help from your side is very much appreciated. And thank you for all those of you who take the time to support and to help. So the euro-dollar discussion we've had on the Weekly forecast was basically that we want to sell the rallies. The first zone we discussed was here. Then, of course, the broken resistance become the support, and from there looking for the continuation. So far, it does look like the first zone holds. We managed to get the price pulled back, and now we got some move to the downside. However, I'm not confident that this is strong enough. This smaller wave— look what happens here. Big wave down, way smaller, uh, wave here, right? And then something that reminds here potential ending conditions. So I would not be surprised if the euro will try to make one more push. But while this making a new low, look what starts to build up here— a potential condition for bullish divergence, which means Any small pullback here could turn to be a fake move before deeper correction and then continuation down. So is that the move that really says that's it? I have my doubts. From my point of view, I would want to see the euro dollar making some deeper pullback here before the move down really gains momentum. And if we take a look on the daily chart, look what does happen here, and that's very interesting scenario. We start to see here a convergence principle with this low, which means lower lows on the chart and the indicator, but without flipping from negative to positive to negative. So from full convergence where we did have a negative-positive-negative flip, we do have here— and now, now only convergence, uh, based on price without indicators yet, which by itself usually means pullbacks and then further continuation down is very likely. So we do have this rising supportive line, and of course afterwards if that breaks, we have these significant lows together with the volume which should act as a good zone for the final, um, supportive area on this drop. So, uh, the way I see that, um, I'm not convinced that it's, it's ready for a major move down. It might go and dance here for a while. It could go and simply create some— oops, wrong, uh, lines. It might go and create some deeper ABCD with the correction or any sort of a ranging here for some time before it really managed to get the move happening to the downside. So that's it for this video and the market analysis for the 17th of May, 2023. Thank you very much for your time watching this video. I would like to take the opportunity and to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading education, and real trading opportunities spotted in real time. Of course, the access to our trading community and so much more. Join with the link below this video in the description. I wish you and yours all the very best, and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
