Market Update | Technical Analysis & Trades Follow-Up 4 May 2023 - by Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and this video is a market update and trade follow-up. I want to follow up on all the trading opportunities we discussed recently on the most recent weekly forecast. So what do we have from the market? First of all, a lot of things happening, but the main event was actually today, Wednesday, as I record this video, and the Federal Reserve went once again for one more hike. There are signs from the Fed that they do plan to slow down However, the very important statement here was, from my point of view, besides that it's maybe it's time to be less hawkish on all the, um, all the subjects of rate hiking, but the main thing here was, from my point of view, that the Fed insists that they are here to fight the inflation rate until it drops to 2%. With that being said, those who are waiting to that the Fed will start cutting the rates, maybe, maybe it's too early to celebrate. Besides that, we have many interesting events coming out here on Thursday, and we have the cash rate in Europe follow up with the monetary policy according to the expectations the European. Central Bank is expected to go and hike as well, to follow up with their friends from US. And then we have the press conference, of course, and we follow up all the way to Friday. Two main things I would be paying attention to: the first one is the CPI in Switzerland, which I consider that is a very important one that could be a very important. Data for the, uh, franc pairs, which many of them are close to create a bottom and potential reversal signs. But this is really one to pay attention to. And of course, we are going then to the non-farm payrolls, and that would be very significant numbers to follow. We all know how the Fed pays attention to the PCE index. And the retail sales and basically the consumption, how much we consume. And so far, despite the pressure, despite everything, people still spend money less, but still spend money, which gives the Fed a headache that maybe the fight with the inflation is not over. So with that in mind, let's quickly take a look. Where do we stand? I cannot cover all the instruments that we discussed on the last several weeks. However, I do want to follow up with a few of them. The euro dollar is continuing its bullish momentum, and as we covered, by the way, if you missed all these videos I'm talking about, make sure you watch them in the channel. All the weekly forecast recordings are available for you in my channel. You can find the one where we cover the instruments and take a look. So let's go to the euro dollar, and the one we have here is the following scenario. So we discussed about two important supportive areas that the euro dollar had. One was here; the other one was connecting the broken resistance with the previously broken swing lows. Where we anticipated to see the price basically continue until it makes the next rally. All the way to pay attention to next key zones. One of them is here. The other one, and the more significant one from my point of view, is around the 114, 115 area. Until it reaches these areas, I would be bullish at this zone here. Might cause problems. And the reason for that is, again, the Fed that still goes for a hike, and what we will see from the European government, um, and the central bank, and this potential bearish divergence. Okay, if that managed to complete— I say if because we can't really go and predict how the market will behave— but if the euro-dollar will face a resistance, a key resistance around this zone. And while the market will make the higher highs, the indicator will start to make lower highs. It might be some significant pullback to the downside before the final leg will actually take place. Okay, so this zone here, the previous swing high, okay, and the previously broken support, it becomes a resistance, and the weekly and daily volume zone right at this area Are significant to pay attention to. If the market does manage to break through, pay attention—that might be a sell-off. And before I go to the next instrument, I would like to take the opportunity and to thank Mugen Markets for supporting this video, and they can learn much more in details about Mugen Markets and what they offer to their traders, including PAMM accounts. Managed automatically by their professional traders. The link you can find below this video in that description. So the next instrument I would like to cover would be the EUR/CAD. As per the analysis of the most recent weekly forecast, the zone we face here is a strong area. Okay, however, it does not always mean that the market will make a hit Right away. Okay, sometimes the first signs turn to be fake signs, and even though the previous zone is still holding currently, definitely there is no bearish momentum despite a beautiful 3 soldiers pattern we saw before. So what does that actually mean? There is a good chance that in such case the euro CAD will try to go for a final rally, a final spike with another fake high to be created before the significant pullback really takes place. So I am still bearish for the long run on the EUR/CAD. If this high will not hold and the price closes above, I will be simply neutral until the next bearish signs will take place and the reversal will start to happen. Usually when such things start to appear, it's only question of time until that reversal really happens. So if this high doesn't hold, no problem, let that go and create another high. Next reversal signs— we are still under a major divergence here. So it's only question of time until the next peak would be created and a major move down will happen. So the previous swing high is a key one to follow up. And again, I believe that even if it doesn't hold, it's only question of time here, a matter of days in that case, until this fake high would be created and completed and the reversal takes place. So pay attention to this one. And the next one is the gold. The gold, the gold, the gold. It's moving so well. It didn't create the ideal scenario I was following yet, and I would like to remind you in case you missed the previous video. For me, the ideal scenario was if we can complete these two legs before the all-time high. So I. It's still very possible scenario, okay, that we will see some sort of a dive here before the continuation. But there is also a good chance that this gap is just a sign of what's more to come. And for long run, I would like to remind you that I believe the gold is here to go and to set the all-time high. How significant the next high would be? Well, that that's only question of time to then we will know. But this ongoing resistance very likely will be retested. Oops, pardon. Very likely would be retested, and once this all-time high will be completed, the next divergence should be a significant one before the turnaround. So for me, the gold remains under bullish pressure, even though pullbacks here are Very welcome. For those of you who are riding the gold, I still anticipate and expect to see the all-time high created. And the final one for today on the follow-up would be the Swiss yen. If you missed this one two weeks ago, I discussed about this pair, but I believe we should see another rally takes place and the high created. We got that going. However, How far, right? That's always the question. I believe the answer here would be not too far, because take a look what happens on the monthly chart. We are at an all-time high, but— and here is a very important but— take a look on these 3 major waves up. What starts to build up? A significant slowdown. Moreover, We got over than 20 candles right on the upper Bollinger Band. Last time it happened was here on the first leg, and we all remember the significant drop happened and follow-up after that. So I don't claim that the next one would be on the same speed and the same pace, but I do claim that we are very close for a top here before the reversal takes place. And if we drop down to the weekly chart, it's sense. Beautiful here with this bearish developing divergence. While the market is still making the higher highs, we can clearly see the indicator making lower highs, which means we are not too far from all-time high top. Going down to the daily chart, and this is what I want to see. That's the first leg, second leg. Any pullback here should go and finalize the rally, where we should see lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the indicator before a significant move down starts to take place. So I believe that this bullish run is about to end, and every rally from here should be considered as a potential fake rally and fake buyers that will likely trap some money in before the reversal takes place. So that's it for this video. I hope, as always, you find value in this video. If you do, please hit this like button, drop some feedback in the comment section, feel free to share it. It's open for the community. And if you are new to this channel, welcome to our trading community. Please subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. 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