My LONG-TERM Picks For Trading In 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to 2024 annual forecast. To be honest, I didn't plan to record this video even though I'm making it every single year, and I don't know how many last years. This year I saw maybe there is a bit less interest of long-term trading, but I have to say I was very honored when several of my followers contacted me, if it's on YouTube, Telegram, emails, support email, and other of our social media ways. Asking for, where is it? We are waiting for that. So I'm very honored when there is an interest of my work, and I'm very happy when it happens. And I decided, let's do it, let's make it happen. So this is the annual forecast, and I want to say big thanks to all those of you who requested that. And now let's begin. Before we go to the charts, big thumbs up and thanks to 8K Broker for supporting me, this channel, and this amazing community. To enjoy the special offers we have thanks to 8K Broker and to get your access to all of my trading system, trading strategies, the club, and private mentoring sessions, please refer to the link below this video in the description. But the first pair I want to talk about would be the pound-dollar. The same pound-dollar that during 2021-2022 had historical painful period and serious drops. Since then, with the new prime minister, uh, it is under the recovery method. So what I personally love when I— when it comes to long-term trading, what I love to do personally is Checking for instruments that are significantly away of the balance zone or the middle zone. For me, in life, everything is moving in cycles and circles. So does trading, and so do all the instruments. The further we go away of a balance zone, and balance zone is sort of a middle. Okay, the bigger the pressure starts to be on the specific instrument to return or find the reasons to return to the middle. Why? Because everything and everyone and every situation, I would say every economy, feels the best around the middle, around the balance. So what I love to do is I love to take the all-time high, all-time low available on the history plot the lines and basically ask myself, okay, this is the middle. Simple method. Where are we compared to the middle? If we are far away on the upside, I will be looking for long-term opportunities for a sell. If we are significantly on the downside below the middle, I'll be looking for buys. That's simple. Okay, it doesn't mean I'm gonna buy at any specific price. It, it means I'll be waiting for this opportunity to buy. It doesn't mean that I'll be buying or selling any instrument, because for long-term hold, it makes more sense to consider swap in trading. Swap is the rollover you pay every single night. If you are in an Islamic account and you don't pay swap, And for you it might be different. But if you do pay or gain swap, then this is definitely numbers to consider because for the long term it might work and give you extra percent just by holding a position like the old school days when you put money in the bank and waiting, right? And the percentage is happening while you are sleeping. This is a passive income. So it, it happens here with the swap. So I will be looking for those instruments who pay me swap, or at least where I pay the minimum possible, and comparing the opportunity and how long my trade could take and how much can I profit from that, uh, because for that I will have to deduct swap if I am paying. Okay, so Very important. For example, if it comes to yen pairs, it makes more sense to go against the yen, right? Like with instruments like dollar, like Australian and New Zealand in the past. Okay, so those instruments do have more swap to hold. Okay, and please check with your broker because every broker is different. So pound-dollar is a very interesting, very interesting interesting instrument, not because of the positive swap, because you will have basically to pay here, but technically speaking it has a great opportunity and the swap would be minimal to pay. So here is what we, we got here. 3 cycles, we are below the middle zone, right? 3 wave cycles with a huge bullish divergence, with recovering mode Uh, economy, uh, with future potential, uh, further investments, uh, happening in Britain, the pound could be attractive for a long term. And if there will be drops, buy them. Makes more sense. So this is just to explain the long term. Going to the weekly chart, this is where I start to analyze the waves, try to figure out the opportunities. So on the weekly chart, the bounce of the bottom happened in 2 waves. Right now we got 1 wave down. So here is what usually happens with such cases. Uh, the pair, the, the market, the price, uh, reacts in such cases usually with one of the following scenarios. Or we're going for ABCD and then it creates a zigzag, 2 waves up, 2 waves down. Okay, and from there further continuation, or some sort of a range builds up here before the continuation, or completion of third wave, basically making it like this— 3 waves and then pullback and continuation. With all the scenarios I just presented, my interest is the same. Pullback and continuation. Since we are talking here about investments, we don't need a specific pullback on weekly chart, even though it could be ideal. But even on lower time frames, like drops and daily bullish signs, could be good opportunities to start and accumulate. The way I love to attack such cases is by portions, or averaging down while understanding that I am going here for a long term, so allowing big room, okay, of actions. So very small positions without any leverage, or moreover negative leverage, which simply means, for example, if I am trading such trades with, let's say, $250,000, doesn't matter. $100,000, $10,000, doesn't matter. I'm going negative. For example, $250,000. Oh, you know what, let's go something more realistic, $10,000. Uh, and going negative means, for example, trading 0.005 or 0.003 or 0.002, because remember, if it goes against I will end up on the next bullish signs. So my plan here is exactly that. Now if I drop to the daily chart, that's one of the scenarios I follow here. We are building the 3 waves. If we get a drop here with a bullish sign, let's say drop and bullish hidden divergence, for example, okay, something like that, I'll be looking like, aha, this is my first Zone to attack. Okay, if we happen to be here like in two waves correction and breakout, aha! That's my zone for the first entry. And of course, if the daily doesn't provide much and we go for the ABCD based on the weekly, then once the weekly completes the ABCD, then I'll be looking to start and build up my positions. What should we pay attention to on all the instruments I'm going to cover? It is presidential election day, uh, day, year in the US, in UK, Germany, and many other places. So it will have its own impact. Okay, it could cause big moves, it could cause, uh, big speculations. So pay attention to that when you are trading, of course. So the pound-dollar was my first one which I'll be looking to deal with. Let me know what do you think about this pair in the comment section below this video. My second pair would be the euro pound. But before I continue, if you do find value in this video and the other videos I upload for you, I would like to ask your support. Please hit this like button. You know, this is how YouTube algorithm works, so your help and your support means a lot to me, my channel of course, and yeah, to YouTube as well. And if you are new to this channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. So the next one is the euro pound. The same story like with the pound dollar, just to choose my direction. If this is the all-time high, all-time low since 2000, this is the middle. We are above the middle, which means as long as we are above the middle, I will be looking for long-term sells. Okay, now I take that to the lower time frames, trying to figure out what do we have and how I'm going to work with is that the most recent situation we have on the weekly chart is the break of this rising trend line, uh, with these 3 waves here. Okay, rally and a bearish hidden divergence— lower highs on the price versus higher highs on the indicator. Okay, so that for me means look for rallies and sell. Simple. So according to the weekly chart, for me it's again, it's sell the rally. Either on the shorter, or if it happens to be bigger waves, then I'll be looking for the bigger waves to complete, create some bearish signs like bearish divergences, and from there look for the sell. Okay, but on the shorter term, these signs could already be in effect. Why? Because the daily chart also had a rising supportive line, broke it down, made the lower lows, and now also potentially lower highs. And the reason I love it already is because This major supply zone we have here with surrounded by sellers, and these sellers is really significant. And any short-term pullback here, as long as this zone holds, can actually bring great sell opportunities with very big risk reward. We saw the middle zone from the higher time frame. This is a great potential. So for me, the euro pound is really under sells as long as the daily supply area holds. If it doesn't, then again, don't forget we are talking here about long term. Then I'll be looking for the longer waves complete and next bearish divergences, bearish signs, and from there go for the longer term sell. Okay, this was the euro pound. Let me know what do you think about this pair in the comment section. Next one I'll be looking to work with is the Swiss yen. I know I mentioned before at the beginning of the video swap, especially with the yen, go against the yen. But Swiss is also in a very low rate zone. That's why I choose the Swiss yen when it comes to long term going against the yen. If you have to pay, it is minimal. Now here is the reason why I love this one and I will explain what I'm looking for specifically. So if we take a look on the monthly chart, we are riding over the 20 candles for, for a long time here with RSI being on the over— critically on the overbought conditions. The longer it lasts, the stronger the pressure would be. This— the last time it happened was actually here, was riding, riding, riding, and crazy spike just to bring a crazy crash. I personally expect for the long term nothing else happen here. So for me, it's actually looking for this huge sell. Now the way it does on the— of course, sorry, if I go to the monthly and we do the same logic of all-time high, all-time low, we understand how far we are from the middle. This is why I choose this instrument. And if we go to the weekly chart, this is where the magic starts to begin. Okay, the way I love to deal with that is looking for this, uh, slowing down highs versus huge divergences. And while the market is making these higher highs here, look what starts to build up with the MACDs. It is building up a bearish divergence massively. Same with RSI. And that's what I am waiting for to complete and to create Okay, go with this divergence once complete, looking to start and build up my sell positions. How am I looking to get involved? Uh, so for the weekly divergence to complete, the daily needs to complete its waves. So I want to see the daily start making here fake highs or slowing rounding highs with a bearish divergence building up here. And once the daily divergence starts to build up condition of higher highs on the chart or fake highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator, for me it will be the time that bam, we are ready, time to sell. Okay, that's my plan for this weekend. Keep in mind we are talking about 2024, so it could take time until it develops. Patience is key always, especially when it comes to long term. Let me know what do you think about this pair in the comment section below this video. Next one I want to cover is the oil. With all the sensitive situation around the world, with all the wars happening, and with Russia and Ukraine that lasts so long, and now in Israel, and Red Sea with bombing from Yemen side, it's crazy. And it is getting crazy. I believe the pressure on the oil price here brings nothing positive, uh, for the price to keep dropping for the long term. So the way I think the oil is going to behave is for the weekly chart to complete these 2 waves. We have some significant buyer zone, one that was holding here several times and one that was holding here big time. I was— I believe we should enter this zone where from I will be looking for a bullish divergence. So lower lows on the chart versus higher lows on the indicator, and from there I'll be looking for major buys. Now this is the exception from the strategy I'm working with, because if I go to the monthly chart and we do the all-time high and low What you can see here that we are basically right on the middle, okay? Which is not based on these techniques, but on the waves techniques plus trying to figure out the situation around the world, which for me is sensitive. So the way I think oil is going to form is it's about to complete these wavings, right? with the daily and the weekly completing its waves and divergences. And once we got the bullish divergence and the daily starts to make some, uh, slowing lower lows, rounding bottoms, for me it would be a great sign to look for the buys. What do you think about the oil? Share with us in the comment section. Personally, I'm very curious to hear what do you have to say about this one. Let me know in the comment section. The final one would be the NASDAQ. I'm choosing one because I can't cover all of the instruments in one video, of course. Feel free, by the way, if you are in our Home Trader Club, feel free to ask me in the group any of the instruments you are interested in. I'll be more than happy to share with you my views. So on the NASDAQ, here is what I want to explain, the logic. So historically Elections years are positive to the markets. There is a good chance that this one would not be as exception, but there is a good chance that this one actually will be as an exception. There is the pressure from inflation. Even though the Fed is expected to start cutting the rates, the inflation is still 3% or over, and going to its target, 2%, could still take a long time and long fight. So there could be several occasions here how it will affect the market. Early cuts in a row could basically make all the job from the Fed been forgotten, and Reverse back the market reaction. Second is if the the market is expecting so many cuts, and the Fed doesn't do that, the market might be disappointed and react accordingly. Third, again, unfortunately, the ongoing wars bring its risk to the world, to everything—the supply chain, demand, the usage, the everything, the safety, the oil, the commodity, everything. Now my fear is that once this— and that could take time, don't get me wrong, that could take time— but once the monthly divergence and cycle completes, and I don't know to predict when, the move down is inevitable. Okay, but until it completes, the bullish pressure is still ongoing, and I believe that this sequence of higher highs, higher lows, once again until the divergence completes. And by completes, I mean the MACD ticks down and the price starts to react by making fake highs and be ready to make some reversal, right? Like, for example, start preparing the trendline breakouts accordingly, right? Trend changes. As long as it did not happen, I would expect to see the indices continuously creating these highs again. I don't know to predict how many, but as long as there are no signs against, the, the opportunity here is bullish. Uh, the year started with the market expecting the Fed to cut the rates, with the elections, um, which usually bring positive vibes to the, to the market. So for me, I would expect the indices to continuously create new highs. Until it will start to make fake signs like fake highs, rounding top, bearish divergences, or starting from the weekly, then the— sorry, starting from the daily, then the weekly, and then only then looking for the sell sign. As long as it didn't happen, I think the bullish pressure is here and is here potentially to stay. We— and all that, uh, I would say despite all the risks that happen, that with all this risk, everything in the technical view could actually go and change dramatically. Of course, then we would have to adjust accordingly. But assuming there will be no craziness happening, this is my trading plan. I showed NASDAQ. Of course, it's pretty much similar to the other indices. Um, again, if you are in Home Trader Club members area, in our groups, feel free to share any of your questions, any of the instruments you are interested in. I'll be more than happy to share my view with you. So that's pretty much it for this video. I hope you find value in this one. I had to choose several of the instruments. I can't, uh, Uh, talk about all of them, of course, in one, in one video. Uh, so I choose the ones that basically sort of represent their impact on the other instruments, like with the yen or like with the indices, uh, or oil on the other currencies as well, or the pound also, which of course could bring its opportunities. Um, that's it. Once again, I want to take the opportunity to wish you and yours a very happy 2024, a very successful 2024. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading opportunities, real-time trading education, access to the community, myself, my team, trading tools, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video. in the description. Thanks for watching. See you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.