Vladimir Ribakov analyzes NZD/CHF showing a 5% decline in 7 days and a bearish structure with lower highs and lows on the daily chart. His plan: sell short-term rallies at pullback zones while momentum is down, then switch to buying if price hits oversold levels or forms a reversal pattern like a V-shape bottom.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I want to share my trading opportunity on New Zealand franc, both a short-term sell and a long-term buy that I believe is going to build up. So there are very interesting things happening on the charts and Let's not waste time. Let's go to the charts and talk about it. What, why, how is building up on the chart, on the price? But before we go to the charts, a big thanks and thumbs up to Eightcap Broker for supporting me and my channel. And to learn about the special offer. To my private mentoring sessions I have with Eightka Broker, please refer to the description below this video. Now let's take a look on the chart. Before the chart, a bit of numbers. This is our market trend snapshot from Home Trader Club. Take a look on the New Zealand franc screaming in red numbers. Take a look on the one month and the seven days. Seven days close to five percent change, okay? While the monthly is also negative twenty-four hours as well. Such numbers usually tell one thing: rallies are very likely to provide further sell opportunities. The trend is absolute. So let's take a look how and what could be used of these numbers on the charts. According to the weekly chart, we are building here. An ending cycle. And even though we started to see some bullish divergence on the moving average before with the previous low, the trend never managed to change. We never got any higher highs, we never got falling resistances, uh, line broken, and we never got the sequence of higher highs, higher lows with breakout and continuation. Such cases usually bring further move down, which is very likely to be limited until the next divergence will take place, and then the rally will start to build up. And that's exactly the plan I have at the moment— sell these short-term, uh, possible rallies. I'll show where and how from to reach this absolutely new low, where from very possibly the next big buys will build up. And if we go to the daily chart What we can see here that after riding on the upper Bollinger Band, the market basically rejected the supply zone and started to push down. From this moment until now, there is nothing that looks like it's ending. Instead of that, we do have here a sequence of lower highs. And lower lows. That makes me think that the market should eventually try and reach or retest this falling supportive line connecting the daily and the weekly lows until the daily will also go and complete here its bullish divergence or reach to the condition of oversold on the RSI, pretty much like happened before in September 2022, and from there create a big reversal. So as long as the bearish momentum is here, take a look what happens on the 4-hour chart. The structure is speaking for itself. We do have clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows. So any pullback to key zones Should be considered as the next sell opportunity. Let's define these key zones. So we had a major move down from this little consolidation, major bearish leg. This zone, inner zone here, as you can see, previously broken resistance, right? Was broken, becomes a support, then was broken with this major candle, a little inner candle, and continuation. So any pullback to this zone Could be a call for further sell. Could that go slightly deeper than that? The answer is yes, and that will be the next resistance, which is here. Resistance broken became a support. Some consolidation—that's again zone of sellers, right? We could get a price rallying towards there, and from this place looking for further sell to reach. The, uh, key daily and weekly levels we discussed before. Now here is a very important thing. What do we do if there are no pullbacks, which could happen? In that case, we do want to see the price pushing straight down. The, let's say, the stronger the, the better, as it will create some possibility for the V-shape return. Move down over sold condition in multi-timeframe 4-hour and daily as I showed before, uh, that would be great sign. And/or to start and see some rounding bottom here, fake lows, like attempt to make a low which, which bounces, attempt to make another low which bounces. And then when the market will flip and make the higher highs, higher lows, look for the buys. Okay, so this is the full trading plan the way I see that Sell the rallies on the short term, and then as these lows are created, then looking to change into flip the trend for long-term buys. Until then, the short-term sell the rally is the plan. And if the rallies don't happen, which could happen, right? Then there is no sell basically, or no possibility to join this ongoing trend. And then just let this extreme oversold condition to happen before the major buys will take place. So that's pretty much my view on this instrument. Let me know what do you think about this one in the comment section. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comment section. And I hope you find value in this video. If you do, please hit this like button. And if you are new to the channel, please subscribe to the channel with the subscribe button below this video. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. And I invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading education and trading opportunities, access to the comprehensive media zone, access to the community, and so much more. Join our trading family with the link below this video. Meanwhile, thanks for your time watching this video. I wish you and yours all the best. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye.
