Vladimir Ribakov analyzes crude oil with a long-term target of $88-$94, citing strong momentum and higher-highs. He warns of a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart that could trigger a pullback before the final rally, and outlines two scenarios for the short term based on MACD signals.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my technical analysis on oil and my price prediction for both the short, midterm, and the longer term view, including a very interesting trading idea and price action to follow. So let's begin. Very last thing before we go to the charts, if you are new to this channel, welcome to our fantastic community. I would like to invite you to subscribe to this channel. Please follow the subscribe button below this video. Just remember to enable the notification so you know when the new content is available for you. As well, I would like to invite you to join our trading family, Traders Academy Club. and enjoy our real-time trading ideas and real-time trading education. You can find the link below this video in the description or in the pinned comment in the comment section. So what do we have on oil and why do I find it very, very, very interesting? And first of all, here is the question. Let me know what do you think. Do you think that My view, and I will explain it in a minute, that we might see the price going all the way up to the 88 to 94 zone, maybe even higher, is is the right one. And you agree with that? Let me know what do you think on oil and how do you predict it? So let's begin. First of all, based on the developing, developing cycle as we have it here. We have developing waves, no doubts, right? We gain the momentum and we still don't seem to lose much of it. Uh, the only thing that is showing up here, that there is a potential bearish divergence developing. By ideal, such things should bring some pullback here and then a final rally To complete the wave, and that's exactly where my idea comes from. So for the longer run, I'll simplify that. I expect oil to continue its rally and reach the zone of 88 all the way up to 94. It's a wide range. However, technically speaking, it's pretty close to each other, and there is a very serious chance we will see the oil trying and pushing them. Forward. There is only one thing to pay attention to at the moment. The way we see it here, the momentum starts to slow down. It means nothing besides the fact it's an indication that the buyers start to get weaker and weaker, which makes sense because if— as long as the price gets more and more and more expensive, there will be less and less and less buyers. There is nothing new about that. But there is one thing I do want you to pay attention to. Remember the weekly analysis and the level prediction? Here comes the short-term view, short-term view, and that's the daily slowdown and the 4-hour chart. By ideal, because the weekly is very likely not over, we would want to get these pullbacks and hop on for the buyers, right? So when we take this in consideration, just keep in mind there is a chance that we're gonna see a straight rally towards the 88 where it completes, and only then a correction. However, if this correction comes in play, this might provide you 2 opportunities. First, to trade the short-term correction. Second, to jump on the next bullish leg once this takes place. And that's exactly where I want to put the focus on. So we understand that for the long term, very likely the bullish game is not over. I say very likely because, well, there are no signs that this trend is over. If you pay attention to the price behavior, it's only creating higher highs, higher lows. Right. But the only thing we do have here as indication, it starts with the daily slowdown. And the bearish divergence that is developing on the 4-hour chart as well. Again, it's indication something might change. We need the price to fit in, and for the price to fit in, that's what I would like to follow. I want to see that turning into false breakout, meaning making a new high and going again under this high. So a false breakout, fake new high. Afterward, I would like this low to be cleared, meaning lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the MACD indicator. And if that happens, that completes a bearish convergence. And just one note here, we would want to see that making the negative-positive-negative flip. If that happens, we might be looking on a short-term sell rallies. Okay, and here is the longer run. If that correction takes place, as I explained, technically might happen, the next rally should be the one that will provide us the major run here. And here is where I want you to, to pay your attention to. So if we complete here the corrective movement, that's the levels to pay attention to: the first low and then the second low here. This is the zone. From these areas, we should be looking for the next possible opportunities for the price to make all the rally towards the long-term expansion around the 88 or further and higher. So this is my technical analysis And my trading idea on oil. And here is a very important thing to do for those of you who sometimes lose the patience of waiting. Do not push the button too fast. Traders do these mistakes, and you would want to avoid rushing in too fast. The reason because that is if you rush in too fast, there is a chance that you would be wrong, or let's say increased chance that you would be wrong. And after that, you might find yourself chasing the next opportunity much quicker, much sooner than you really should, what we call revenge trading after a loss. go and immediately look for the next opportunity to try and revenge the market for making you lost. So you don't want to find yourself in that place. Therefore, create a clear trading plan— what should happen on the price for you to execute the way you plan to execute. Plan your trade and trade your plan. So that's pretty much it for this video. Let me know what do you think about the oil. How do you see the price going up to where it's going? It's going to rally or vice versa? Is it going to make a dip from here? Let me know. Share with the community your views, and thank you very much in advance. Please drop it in the comments, of course. And for all our trading ideas. Real-time trading education, all our trading techniques and strategies, I invite you to join our family, the Traders Academy Club, and you can find the link to that below the video in the description or in the pinned comment. Stay safe, be well, all the best to you and yours. Thanks for your time watching this video.
