In this video Vladimir Ribakov of the Home Trader Club provides a post‑Fed‑meeting market commentary after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged on May 1 2024. He explains why the decision, despite expectations of rate cuts, triggered an anti‑dollar move and analyses the immediate technical implications for three major FX pairs. For GBP/USD he sees short‑term upside driven by Fed‑statement momentum but remains skeptical about a sustained long‑term dollar weakness, highlighting a key demand zone and upcoming non‑farm payroll data. For USD/CAD he maintains a bullish “buy‑the‑dip” stance, noting a break of falling resistance and higher highs as a continuation signal. For USD/JPY he stays bearish, arguing that the pair is below the critical 160 level, that Bank of Japan intervention is likely, and that a fake high or wave‑count pattern could trigger a longer‑term trend reversal. Throughout he references his weekly forecast, emphasizes technical setups (volume‑profile zones, divergence, wave counts), and invites viewers to subscribe, join the Home Trader Club, and take advantage of a sponsorship deal with Adka Broker.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I want to make a follow-up on what is happening in the market, especially after today when the Federal Reserve keeps the rate unchanged. Um, so let's break it down, what really happened and how the market reacts to that and what is likely to happen following the moment. Before that, big thanks and thumbs up to Adka Broker for supporting myself, my community, and this channel. And to enjoy all the very special offers we have with Adka Broker, please refer To the link below this video in the description. So the Federal Reserve keeps the rates. From one side, that should be a bad sign. The rates are so high, we could we could say for so long while the market was and back in the end of 2023, the market was anticipating few cuts in 2024, something that Nowadays looks like a very unlikely reality, and despite that, the market is reacting as an anti-dollar move. So the biggest question comes up here is why? So as always, the truth is in between the words, in between the lines, and one of the Fed's comment was and all between the economy is doing this way and that way, and that could go this way and that way. One of these things he said or mentioned or gave a hint to was basically it's unlikely that we will increase the rate. Why it's so important and why it has the instant impact? Because recently the market was behaving in a way that there was a probability that the Fed will actually increase the rates despite all the fear, despite everything, just to help and boost the inflation to drop down to 2% as their goal, as their target. So on the short term, I believe that is pretty much what will happen, and this current reaction Let's take a look on the pound-dollar. This current reaction is very likely to finish. So on the short term, I believe the momentum and everything from the Federal Reserve words could be actually pushing that a little bit to the upside. But for the long term, I'm still not convinced that we have enough to go long time against the dollar. So, uh, in one of the scenarios we discussed in the weekly forecast was for the pound-dollar, is that after we got a pullback, look for the buys as we have this demand area. So this scenario is pretty much what is relevant at the moment, and the way I see very possible to happen on the short term at least that we're gonna complete this rally and complete this divergence at some point. We have major zone here. How major? It is very strong volume profile area, as you can see here, based on the daily and weekly levels. And also, this is a huge supply area where sellers were in control several times in a row. So I believe that as soon as that completes somewhere around this area. From there, we are very likely after the sells. Keep in mind, there will be non-farm payrolls, uh, on Friday. That could have its impact, of course, following impact as well. The Federal Reserve say that the job market stabilizes itself. Would be interesting to see, is it, or was it just a little Pullback on the job market report before the before the let's say the the numbers go against the Federal Reserve policy. So this is the pound dollar. Now another pair we discussed in the in one of the recent weekly forecast. Was the dollar CAD, where we got the idea here buy the pullbacks. So my view didn't change here on the dollar CAD. Um, the way I see that after the break of this falling resistance line and making higher highs on the chart, for me it is basically buy the dips. Uh, theoretically, as long as these low holds This pullback should make its find its way to the upside. What could happen here, though, in a bit more rare case, is that the dollar CAD will actually complete something like that before the further continuation. Again, at the moment, I have doubts that it's doable, but everything can can happen here. For me, the bullish view was and remains on as we followed from the weekly forecast, I think a couple of weeks ago. And the last one I want to make a little follow-up and update is actually the dollar-yen. Dollar-yen on the last weekly forecast discussed about the possibility that we will skyrocket towards the 160 where from we will start to see a dramatic drop. And as you can see, the week started with the 160, uh, created very serious overbought conditions, and now in 2 waves down, we are over the 800— sorry, 700 points from the peak. So what is next? To the dollar yen. Honestly, my view still remains bearish here. I believe that we are now in a zone that intervention would be inevitable for the Japanese bank. Setup-wise, we still are lacking a setup. The classical scenario would be if dollar yen can complete another fake high here. Something like that with a daily divergence, and from there a major trend change. But the alternative scenario is on the 4-hour chart, we are building at the moment 2 waves to the downside. So if it follows by 2 waves to the upside and further break down, it is a great sell. Of course, it can be alternative to 2 waves as a range And then a break as well. So these would be the setups, technical setups, to validate a longer-term potential trend change. Okay, while at the moment I believe that as long as we are below the 160, which is key, as we can see the Central Bank of Japan really fighting these levels. So as long as that is the case, I believe that the dollar yen should be sell the rallies and the setups as I explained accordingly. So that's pretty much it for this video. It was a quick follow up on the market after the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, I'll see you of course in the weekly forecast. But meanwhile, I want to thank you for your time watching this video. If you are new to our channel, please consider to. Subscribe with the subscribe button below this video and don't forget to like the video. It helps a lot with the YouTube algorithm. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, best to you and yours. Thanks for watching. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
