Vladimir Ribakov analyzes USD/JPY and plans a short trade based on a daily rejection zone and negative divergence where price made higher highs but MACD and RSI made lower highs. He's watching the 4-hour chart for a fake high pattern to sell into, targeting 140-139, then 137.5, then 136.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my analysis on the dollar yen and why I think this one starts to be interesting starting from now. On the coming days, I believe it could develop something very, very Interesting. So let's go to the chart, and here we are with some very interesting levels developing on a daily chart. Okay, on the move down, the pair has a pretty strong rejection area, a zone of sellers. The first time were significant after the turnaround to the downside, the first time where the buyers were trying to reject. And failed. The sellers rejected this area and they were holding it. And if we analyze the rally before that, this is the key zone. We have here a lot of sellers, as you can see. So that becomes a very strong area where, um, with high probability, the buyers will start to lose their grip and sellers will start to step in. And here is how I would want to work with that. Going down to the 4-hour chart— by the way, beside— I go to the— before I go to the 4-hour chart, take a look what else starts to build up here. One of my favorite technical conditions, a multi-timeframe divergence scenario. So at the end of these waves that we start to see here on the daily chart, between the most recent highs we start to see higher highs in the chart, lower highs on all the indicators— moving average of the MACD, histogram of the MACD, as the RSI. That's a condition of negative divergence that is developing, and that hints that starting from now, every rally has a potential to be a final one rejected by the sellers and negative turnaround. So going down to the 4-hour chart to trying to find the technical opportunities for that Here is what we start to see. Okay, this is usually how it ends with these rallies coming in place. Usually what starts to happen is the market builds up some fake highs. Okay, like attempts to create a high which retraces right away, attempts to create a high which retraces right away, and then basically flipping the trend by making lower lows, pullback, and continuation. That's exactly what I want to see. If these highs are created, I am after selling them. So what I want to see is higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator to complete also a 4-hour chart bearish divergence together with the daily divergence. And then the most recent rising supportive line and the most recent low to be created. I want to see the turnaround and then sell the rallies would become my plan. The first target in that case would be of course this massive volume zone around the 140.139, surrounded by sequence of lows here. It creates a very strong demand area here on the 4-hour chart, and the next one would be potentially all the way Lower to 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of this daily lag and the previously broken resistance that is now a support area. That's around the 137.50-ish. And the final target for me could be all the way to the 50% Fibonacci, which is 136. So not necessarily this will happen in, uh, you know, 1 hour or 1 day, but I would be paying attention to this instrument Such opportunities usually build up something great. They might take some time to develop, but it's definitely worth to follow. And once the technical conditions are completed, are cooked, baked properly, this is usually when the big moves come in place. So that's it for this video. Let me know what do you think about it. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask in the comment section. I wish you a wonderful trading. Thanks for your time watching, and if you find value in this video and the content I upload for you, please hit the like button and feel free to share this video. It's open for the trading community. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now and good trading.
