Vladimir Ribakov breaks down the USD/JPY drop toward 156, driven by Bank of Japan rate hike expectations rather than direct intervention. Key levels: yen strength confirmed below 157.50, intervention risk returns near 160. His trade: sell USD/JPY on rallies.
The yen just surged and the dollar-yen slid toward 156. But was that an intervention? So earlier this week, I published for you in my channel this very video where we were talking about anything above 160 brings back the risk of intervention or the possibility of intervention on the table. And we saw the dollar-yen dropping hard time since then. So the yen gained nearly 1.5% on Thursday following the rising of 1.9% on Wednesday. The euro-yen dropped more than 1% as well. Now as that happens, there is no official intervention confirmation or anything like that. The stronger driver was rising Bank of Japan hike expectations after some hawkish comments from Takata. And Governor Ueda. Now, because the move was broad and relatively orderly, I would say the current evidence leans toward policy repricing. And that to me means below 157.50, about so, keeps yen strength visible. A move above 159 would actually weaken that signal, and closer to 160, and we are again in the possible intervention area. So for me, I am after sell the dollar-yen as long as these key levels actually hold. Don't chase it and don't force it. Keep your eye on the Japanese yields, keep your eyes on the non-farm payroll to be published on Friday, and mostly watch for the price action on the charts to trigger the sell the rallies plan. For more trades, education, tips, and strategies, make sure you follow us in this page.
Stop Buying USDJPY: The Critical Resistance You Need To See #forex #tradingstrategy #shorts
