In this weekly video, Vladimir Ribakov of Traders Academy Club delivers a comprehensive forex outlook for the trading week of June 12‑18, 2022, focusing on the impact of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision. He reviews four major currency pairs – AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD – blending technical analysis (trend structures, hidden divergences, support/resistance, ABCD patterns) with fundamental context (interest‑rate differentials, recent CPI data, central‑bank policy expectations). For each pair he outlines two possible scenarios (e.g., bullish continuation vs. bearish breakdown for the Aussie dollar) and proposes concrete trade plans such as selling rallies on the Kiwi dollar or buying pull‑backs on the Euro. Throughout he stresses the trader’s role to react to price action rather than predict policy moves, advocates disciplined risk management and avoiding over‑exposure, and repeatedly promotes his Traders Academy Club membership, free Volume Profile and Virtual Trading Pen indicators, and real‑time education resources. The video concludes with a reminder to stay patient, respect key levels only when price confirms them, and engage with the community for further support.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. And we are getting ready for the trading week starting on June 12th, and I would like to wish you first of all a successful trading week and happy summer. In today's video, I would Uh, talk about the Aussie dollar, which I reviewed the previous week, uh, and we would have a follow-up. And I'll share with you another interesting opportunity the way I see that, that will be the New Zealand dollar. And also I will review the euro dollar and the pound dollar, which I shared with you during this week. So a lot of things going on on the market. But before we go to the charts, uh, and explain all the technical things happening, then and also all the fundamental things happening behind the scenes. If you are new to our channel, welcome to our amazing community. Please subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And also I invite you to our trading family, Traders Academy Club, where you will get— where you will enjoy and get your access to our full VIP price action course. And you will enjoy from all our real-time trading ideas and real-time trading education. That's the main focus real-time trading education. Every single trading opportunity comes with a detailed, dedicated video explaining all the techniques behind it. I invite you to our family with the link below this video in the description. Uh, so, uh, previous week I was reviewing the Aussie dollar and explained— by the way, if you missed the videos I am talking about, you can find them directly on the chair— on the channel, of course, or Or right now, the right top corner of this video, you can find there the direct link and watch the previous week analysis. So the idea, as we saw that, as we discussed, was from these keys on to get corrections and then looking for further bullish continuation. But the correction does happen and takes place. And the interesting part that we are now approaching towards a key zone. So we have a 2-wave corrective movement, and this is a building up bullish hidden divergence and potential. Now, despite all the amazing technical facts we have based on the technical analysis, it is important to remember this week we will have the cash rate, interest rate In U.S., recently we saw cash rates decision in Australia which increased it. We saw the European which hold but already talking about increasing in July and then in September even further on. The way it looks right now, this trend of hiking the rates is not going to disappear. And the biggest question now, which will cause volatility and some times also confusions on the technical part is who will make the bigger move. Okay, because at the end of the day, for the longer-run analysis, the market is moving, um, trying to anticipate which of the countries, the central banks, will make the bigger moves and where the interest rate gap where the difference between the interest rate would be bigger. So right now, with all that, with all the instruments taking the moves against dollar, the dollar is back in the front of the scene because this week the Federal Reserve is expected to hike by 50 points more towards the 1.5%. Now As we saw with the recent CPI report coming out of the previous week showing dramatic increase, uh, and now we are talking about the official numbers. Imagine what happens behind the real economy right now with the gas prices, uh, flight prices, food prices, and you name it, uh, all around the world it's getting extremely expensive. And with that being said, the Fed might have no choice and hike further with more than 50 basic points, or at least hint on the next steps. So this is why the dollar is getting stronger. However, anything that could be, let's say, out of the hawkish expectations could cause the opposite drama. And these are the 2 scenarios we have to be prepared for this week. Scenario number One, it managed— the Aussie dollar manages to find the bottom around the previous lows, okay, create this hidden divergence and complete it. And then we will see the market basically does that breaking above this falling resistance and making another rally to the upside, anti-dollar, if the Fed will disappoint. The second scenario that might happen is that we recreate here a bearish momentum by making 3 lower highs, lower lows without any bullish signs. And then after the pullbacks, we see one more dive down until we will recreate this sort of daily divergence. So yes, that could get as dramatic as that. And the reason I wanted to point out the 2 possible scenarios here is because nobody can really go and predict what the Fed will do and how the market will react to that. And remember, as a trader, your job is not to predict. As a trader, your job is to react to the act, what you see the price action is doing, to react to that. And in order to be able to react to that properly, You have to have a specific plan, and sometimes this plan means having both possible scenarios, understanding which of the sides taking the control. So let me know what do you think about the Aussie dollar in the comment section below this video. The next pair which I would like to share with you would be the New Zealand dollar. But before that, I really would like to ask your support and your help. If you find these videos useful and helpful, hit this like button below this video. Share some comments, few words in the comment section would be very much appreciated. Feel free to ask any question you have below in the comment section and also share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit by watching that. Also, a quick reminder, if you still didn't do that, then these 2 indicators, the Volume Profile indicators, which with a full multi-timeframe control indicator, uh, Key Trading Levels indicator, that also based on the volume profile, and my amazing Virtual Trading Pen. These 2 indicators are available for you for free. Go below this video in the description, find the links there for the Virtual Trading Pen and KTL indicator. Download, install, enjoy. These are available for now only for MetaTrader 4, but we also will be very likely working on the MT5 release And once it's ready, you can expect a good update about it. So New Zealand dollar, what do we have here? And I would here like to start with the weekly chart. Weekly chart is in current downtrend. We never had that ended with any divergence, unlike the other instruments like the Aussie dollar, which show the signs. Kiwi dollar doesn't, and Taking a look on these two lows, I think that New Zealand dollar should find a comfortable bottom here. Write this down before retraces all the way upside. We should not forget that New Zealand was basically one of the first ones to react to the interest rates, and they might go and do it more as well, which eventually should work in their favor because everybody is anticipating for a dollar to be. Acting strong, and once this anticipation is over, the other currencies will actually catch up. So what do we have there? The weekly classical trending structure to the downside without ending signs. Daily bearish trending structure with 3 lower highs, lower lows, creating a bearish trend, bearish wave with a pullback and a bearish hidden divergence. So we have lower highs on the chart, higher highs on the indicator, which gives here the anticipation for further continuation upside. And usually it works in one of the following scenarios. After the hidden divergence, we might have a straight move all the way down until a new low is created, or in more rare cases, Uh, the sort of a pullback or maybe even a range movement before the actual continuation down. So taking all that into consideration, I go to the 4-hour chart and that's where it gets interesting. After the correction upside, we ended up seeing a false breakout and a flip to make lower lows, and now we are recreating bearish trending structure. Without any signs it's over. So for me, sell the rallies is the plan for New Zealand dollar. Once again, exactly like I shared with you on Aussie dollar, keep in mind both scenarios with or against the Fed move, whatever the market will react to on Wednesday. And the classical scenario, the ideal scenario for me would be the pullback. To hold below this resistance area, and from there looking for the sells. But as I mentioned before, in in few cases we might see some attempt to spike for new high before it actually retraces again and making a deep low. What do you think about the New Zealand dollar? And as how low do you think this one can actually go? I think it could take us all the way to oh as low as 0.60. Definitely a possible scenario. Two more pairs that I was talking about this week. One is the pound dollar, which for me was a classical breakout here of this ABCD and making higher highs. But my bullish view here and my trading idea here to rally with this breakout failed, and this low that I was looking as a key low didn't manage to hold. So also for the pound dollar. If there will be no drama, then I would expect it to complete the move as low to 120, maybe even slightly lower until the next divergence completes. But I do want to say here very important thing. Do not overexpose yourself to a specific currency nowhere, but never, I would say. But especially not in such fundamental, such important fundamental weeks like the current one we are going to face with the Federal Reserve announcing their interest rate. Okay, so choose the ones you want to work with and definitely not overexposing. And the euro dollar was another pair that I was talking about this week, and here I want to share with you the importance of the patience. As I explained in the video I published in the channel for you, the break of this range should manage to get us a hold above the key breakout after the key level, right? The falling resistance line. And then after that, buy the pullback should be a great idea. Note how this never happened. After attempt here, this turned to be a fake attempt because the market never managed to hold above the range. And this is a classical lesson how important, how critical patience is. Okay, so pay attention to that. So what's next with the euro dollar? Now we are facing ABCD with a key zone. If it managed to hold here and create reversal signs, it might be a good buying sign. But if it simply goes below that, then there is no doubt we are going to see a new low coming in play until the next bullish divergence will recreate, like for all the other also. Dollar pairs like the Aussie dollar, Kiwi dollar, pound dollar we saw before. Okay, so same might go and happen with the, um, Euro dollar. Okay, so pay attention to that. Uh, and again, the levels— keep that, keep this in mind— levels, uh, being reached, it's only one thing. Levels is never a proof of action, never. Because you need to make sure the level holds. What does that mean? Oh, you identify the levels, but then you want to see price reaction. You want to see attempt how the market flips by making fake lows and actually creating higher highs. Then you can understand the buyers are taking control. If that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean that a specific level is reached. And I hope you understand how important it is to have this patience and not to rush into a trade like so many traders tend to do. And it's, it's a mistake, and these mistakes cost money. I always said that to my members, if you don't pay attention, you pay money. Okay, if you rush You may crash. And, and always remember these little things. The market always will find a way to separate men and kids. Always. Okay, don't prove to, to be a kid in the market despite the age. Okay, and I'm not saying it on any negative, uh, way, only in a positive way. Those who rush are usually those who is the easiest to trap And take their money. Okay, so avoid it. You understand this, you, you might be experiencing such mistakes, and it's okay to make a mistake. It's definitely not okay to keep repeating that. So that's the instruments I wanted to share with you: Aussie dollar from previous week, New Zealand dollar from, uh, uh, for this current week as a new opportunity, and the 2 Uh, instruments, uh, that I was reviewing during the week. The pound-dollar, which unfortunately failed, but we'll be looking for a new opportunity there. And the euro-dollar that did not trigger the break of the range properly and now making the pullback to the next important level. However, level does not mean action. Remember that, it's very important. Thanks for your time watching this video. I hope you find it useful. As always, Once again, welcome to our trading family, Traders Academy Club, uh, where you will enjoy from all these amazing offers and the best value to price. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. I wish you and yours all the best. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
